Peru-Chile Could Experience Megathrust Quake as Six Quakes Over 6 Mag Strike Area

USGS Map Link

With a third quake of 6.7 M striking on the subduction zone in just a few days, the magnitudes have been increasing steadily: 6.1, 6.3, and 6.7. At this point I have to put out a warning to the people of Peru, Chile and Ecuador- cause no official agency will do it. And let's hope I'm wrong.

But with these high magnitudes, the possibility of them being foreshocks cannot be overlooked. Where might this quake strike? Anywhere in that general area where the stress reloading from these already big quakes triggers a locked point, and pushes it over the edge.

At this point considering that Chile already has had a big quake in the last few years, I tend to think the next one will probably be farther north- either near Peru or Ecuador, perhaps northern Chile. Again, I hope I am wrong.

ETA: With the spread of those big quakes all along that part of the zone, it could be signaling its intention and defining the approximate area of rupture to come. Anything over 8 has the possibility of creating a tsunami, and anything over 8.5 out at sea most certainly will- because it always has in the past.

ETA2: And needless to say, my rig is locked, loaded, directed, finely tuned in, and spewing forth data. So I will keep yas updated.



At the member's request, the title of this thread has been changed from 3 large quakes to 5, because there have been two more in recent days. Full details of the latest large quakes can be found in posts within this thread.

This guy has been nearly spot on with his quake predictions.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Time will tell of you are correct.
Seems fairly normal to me in the ring of fire.

A tsunami could endanger the entire west coast all the way up into Canada.
Not just localized around Chile.
Hopefully that won't happen. Never does when we get the warnings.

A mag 7 Just hit there as well,

16-MAR-2014 21:16:33 -19.84 -70.57 7.0 35 0 NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE

www.iris.edu...

www.iris.edu...

Unless its the same one and they modified the magnitude.

I would tend to think that a mega-thrust quake would just happen without any significant fore-shocks. When large quakes above 6.0 happen they tend to relieve a lot of the stresses on the fault. The more stress built up the larger the quake.

What I find absolutely interesting is the link to coronal holes that face earth tend to trigger large quakes. Also planetary alignments seem to be a booster as well.



Check out the solar activity just before the Japan March 2011 9.0.

Amazing!

This pre-quake setup for a big quake in the region seems to be the norm lately. S&F

Haven't there been some mysterious mass die-offs of the ocean life in those areas recently? One of the possibilities was tectonic activity releasing poisonous gas.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Definitely one to keep an eye on. And as always, you're on top of it, TA.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thanks for the info TA.

I've been lurking the ATS forums for a long time and I'm glad there's a few people on ATS that not only keep track of the Data but also take the time to post the information.

S&F for you. Keep up the good work.

Living on the West Coast all nice and cozy with a subduction zone, the activity over the last few months / year has definitely made the activity from Eastern Alaska down to the tip of South America quite interesting to follow. Thanks for your continued observations and reports TA

We might not agree on gun control TA but this event could be of very big significance of it keeps ramping up. Thanks for presenting it

We all saw how when Chile went, NZ followed and then finally Japan a few years back.

History repeating perhaps?

SWCCFAN
I would tend to think that a mega-thrust quake would just happen without any significant fore-shocks.

Actually, long term studies in Chile particularly of the days and weeks prior to the biggest quake ever recorded showed a significant amount of pre-slip on the fault. We've been over this before at ATS, and I read the article myself.

And that's not all. Not long ago we witnessed my concern over a similar situation in the Santa Cruz Islands, where large magnitude quakes kept happening, and lo and behold- BAM- 8.0.

Then of course there was Japan. No need to go there. That speaks for itself.

We can no longer afford to play "we've got a reputation to keep" official agency. When we see these patterns it is our duty to advise residents that potential real danger may be lurking. Extra precaution is prudent, in my opinion, at this time, and for the next several days at the very least. That means get more of the prepper items, and if you are near the coast, be prepared to make a very fast getaway to high ground. Have the route planned. KNOW what you are going to do, and WHERE you are going. Advise friends and family. These kinds of things are all we have to defend against a massive quake.

UPDATE: Several aftershocks have occurred, and another one incoming as I type- estimate, about 5.3 or so.

Update- that was a 5.2 according to both EMSC and USGS

Pretty big aftershock incoming, biggest so far. Estimate: 5.8 to 6.2- update in a minute.

EMSC: 6.1
USGS: 6.2

While I wait on USGS, which will probably come in at 6.2 or 6.3, I gotta say, that's bad news. That just violated the 1.3-1.5 mag differential rule. 6.7 to 6.1 in a conservative mode, is only .6 difference. That makes me believe that there is still considerable energy in that fault, and it may not be over. We may indeed be looking at foreshocks.



ETA: Jeez. That fault is now a mixture of aftershocks from that latest 6.2, and the aftershocks from the mainshock. It is extremely agitated, generating what appears to be constant seismicity as I look at the real time data. Holy crap!

ketsuko
Haven't there been some mysterious mass die-offs of the ocean life in those areas recently? One of the possibilities was tectonic activity releasing poisonous gas.

Nice observation Ketsuko.

Dolphins have died in northern poisoning in Peru

The Regional Manager of Production Lambayeque officially has a record of 459 dolphins, porpoises, sea lions, turtles and birds that beached on the coast of Lambayeque and reserving Illescas, located south of Piura.

According to this source, Lambayeque Imarpe staff recorded that 79.9% of the animals were stranded cetaceans (dolphins of various species), 8.93%, seals, 7.65%, turtles, and 3.46%, birds.

It says that these sea animals are dying from toxic algae. There is an overabundance of the algae due to increasingly warmer waters.

Concern about mass death of crabs in Chili

Great concern exists among the inhabitants of Antofagasta by the strange death of thousands of crabs on the beach Chacaya, located 30 minutes north of Mejillones.

The situation is recorded since last Saturday, when these animals along with other marine species and even birds were found dead on the coast, extending for about two miles.

Notice how this was a mass and sudden poisoning because other species died as well, including birds. Some witnesses stated that a boat had arrived in the harbor and the deaths occurred soon after. Officials said the deaths were not natural. Of course, without understanding what may have occurred such as methane or hydrogen sulfide poisoning, they'd have to blame it on something such as a boat arriving in the harbor.

Strange death of birds in the Bio Bio region of Chili

Hundreds of birds, belonging to the species of black cormorants found dead on a beach in Lota, in the region of Biobío.

The residents of the area claim that power plants would be the cause of this phenomenon.

Officials of the Agriculture and Livestock Service (SAG) have announced an investigation into the incident, neighbors said that this is the first time something that is recorded in the sector.

As happened a few weeks ago back to varazón sardines in a sandy Coronel and what happened in the south, with an incredible bird watching in the Araucanía.

It says that a few weeks prior to this story, there was other die-offs of sardines. They blame this one on a power plant. Once again, most likely gases released off the coast from earthquakes or smaller fractures of the earth's crust.

Two tons of dead fish stranded on Peru beaches

Fishermen district of Santa Rosa and other creeks in the region Lambayeque are concerned because, in recent days, many schools of fish have washed up dead on the shore of the beach for reasons not yet explained.

Seamen who start their job very early found several species stranded in recent days, has done tremendously unusual caught their attention.

"It must be the water source, but many people are dying, people come to pick them up from the shore," said Jose shaman, one of the seamen.

Imparpe authorities so far have not provided an explanation of this new massive varazón marine species, after the death of dolphins, seals, turtles and boobies on the entire beach.

For environmentalists this is very strange, as also recorded in Piura and Chimbote and believe that it can be pollution, what is motivating the death of these species.

It is estimated that more than two tons of fish have been stranded on the beaches of the coast of Lambayeque.

These are die-offs that occurred in Peru and Chili in the months of January and February. Also, in the month of January over 400 dolphins washed ashore in Peru. There were also a half-dozen mass die-offs of fish in rivers in Brazil over those two months as well as other die-offs throughout South American countries. Here are two other die-offs that occurred in January in Peru and Chili.

Hundreds of fish found dead in lake La Molina, Peru

Second mass die-off of sardines in Chili in two weeks

SWCCFAN
I would tend to think that a mega-thrust quake would just happen without any significant fore-shocks.

Finally found it. I knew that wasn't right, at least not in Chile.

The M8.2 1960 earthquake was a foreshock that occurred the previous day to the great M9.5 Chilean earthquake.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

So there you are, you survive an 8.2!, and you're thinking "ok, it's aftershocks from here on out. Phew."

And then the greatest earthquake ever recorded, 9.5, slams you the very next day.

It just goes to show that the Peru-Chile trench is not to be played with, or second-guessed. When it starts moving, you better watch- the-hell out and take precautions.

Update to activity: a few more smaller aftershocks since the 6.2, but overall the fault is calming down. For the moment. That can change. Especially, THERE.

No harm in the South Americans being on alert, and no doubt they are after those 5 m6's
heres the lastest 2 near Chile/Bolivia/Peru junction and aftershocks
Servicio Sismológico Universidad de Chile
aftershocks of the 6.8Mw os Pisagua quake at the 17:26:05 (hh:mm:ss) mark interactive map
mag6= 2
mag5= 4
mag4= 25
mag3= 44
mag2= 13
was just looking at the Utsu M8+ map, interesting how the M8+ always hit quite close to the coast (compared to yesterdays M6's)
however, based on the interim period between M8's, within 800km radius of yesterdays quakes, the next M 8 will be about 55 years away

M8 quake, years since previous
1471,
1513, 42
1543, 30
1582, 39
1604, 22
1716, 112
1784, 68
1821, 37
1877, 56
1886, 9
2001, 115

just numbers though.
not bad data though, 543 years worth!
may get a different result by extending the parameters a bit further north and south on the subduction zone, I'll have a look into the lower magnitudes on Utsu and see what the history of the foreshock theory is beyond 100 years, if the data is there


here ya go.
Table of Peru/Chile quakes M6+ 1471-2010, 5000km length of Peru Chile Trench/West Coast South America
just a matter of sorting
Lat/Long close matches with Time
I see more 6's coming as aftershocks or just isolated quakes on their own, there are the odd few that could be foreshock though.
Not that many 6's, Utsu was more concerned with 7+'s.

map

delayed edit on post by muzzy


ha! forgot to add the link to the title (time exceeded now)

Table of Peru/Chile quakes M6+ 1471-2010, 5000km length of Peru Chile Trench/West Coast South
let me know what you see (more eyes may see more trends)

obviously that data is incomplete too.

SWCCFAN
I would tend to think that a mega-thrust quake would just happen without any significant fore-shocks. When large quakes above 6.0 happen they tend to relieve a lot of the stresses on the fault. The more stress built up the larger the quake.

What I find absolutely interesting is the link to coronal holes that face earth tend to trigger large quakes. Also planetary alignments seem to be a booster as well.

This really is a myth. Government stooge geologists and seismologists spread that myth.

reply to post by muzzy


I appreciate the data, muzzy! I didn't know Puters gave you permission to post outside the QuakeWatch thread?

When you look at just the Chile section of the trench, perhaps 55 years might be the average, but that's just it. I am looking at the trench as a whole, as it concerns this particular sequence of quakes. Those 3, now 4, 6+'s are spread out, covering the north, mid, and southern points of the Peru coast. And to me that is what is alarming. That covers about 2000 km of that trench. If that much were to rupture at once it would be a massive quake, no doubt.

And to make matters even worse, the IU station OTAV in Ecuador has not responded in days now- on any channel. I can't get any real time data out of Peru either at all- but that's no surprise- been that way since I can remember. I believe there may be archive data only on one network carried at IRIS. If you know of any networks providing real time data out of Peru, let's have em. Cause I believe that's where it's going to be, if it happens at all. And I think your data might be missing one massive quake that hit in northern Ecuador, not sure. Was just looking at that last night.

TrueAmerican
reply to post by muzzy

 

I appreciate the data, muzzy! I didn't know Puters gave you permission to post outside the QuakeWatch thread?

When you look at just the Chile section of the trench, perhaps 55 years might be the average, but that's just it. I am looking at the trench as a whole, as it concerns this particular sequence of quakes. Those 3, now 4, 6+'s are spread out, covering the north, mid, and southern points of the Peru coast. And to me that is what is alarming. That covers about 2000 km of that trench. If that much were to rupture at once it would be a massive quake, no doubt.

And to make matters even worse, the IU station OTAV in Ecuador has not responded in days now- on any channel. I can't get any real time data out of Peru either at all- but that's no surprise- been that way since I can remember. I believe there may be archive data only on one network carried at IRIS. If you know of any networks providing real time data out of Peru, let's have em. Cause I believe that's where it's going to be, if it happens at all. And I think your data might be missing one massive quake that hit in northern Ecuador, not sure. Was just looking at that last night.

By comparing that length distance of the fault line, if that much of the fault ruptured, as compared to how much ruptured during the 1960 Chile earthquake, then doing a very quick and basic rough calculation of the math in my head in a few seconds - I get a magnitude of 9.6.

However, you have to keep in mind that now they turn down all of the measuring machines on purpose so that they artificially lower all of the magnitudes to make all the earthquakes seem to be smaller than they really are, so as to "not alarm the public too much". Factoring in that they turn all the machines down now, and that all the earthquake magnitudes are artificially lowered now, they would probably call it something like a 9.2, or something like that, if it actually happened though. But it would actually be like a 9.6.

Well, I just did the match quickly in my head in a few seconds. I would have to actually figure out the equations and actually do the math for real to make sure, but I think that is right. So even though they would probably call it a 9.2, or maybe even lower, since the measuring machines are turned down now........yeah, if that much of the fault ruptured, that would be bad.