It's happened again, but i'm refining my predictions.
Russia has just fired another Topol ICBM from the Kapustin Yar range [lower Volga] on a very short-range test flight into the Sary Shagan impact zone
[Lake Balkhash, Kazakhstan].
SOME such tests sparked spectacular UFO reports throughout southern Russia, central Asia, and the Near East.
If my current research is to be validated, THIS launch will NOT.
I don't know yet if it has or not -- I'm making this prediction based on my current theory of which launches do and which don't show up
My research indicates that the fan-shaped clouds [followed by a brief spiral cloud] sometimes seen during these flights are effluent from a 55-second
firing of the ICBM warhead bus during final descent against the anti-missile radars and other trackers at Sary Shagan -- NOT part of the three-stage
launch sequence. They occur about 500 kilometers high and far to the east of Kapyar, much closer to the impact point. The most recent event, on
October 10, was also extensively imaged by the ISS crew. Asymmetries in the cloud shape are indicators of plume structural blockages of the
side-mounted thruster quads of the warhead bus itself.
Here's the news story [NOT to be confused with the December 24 'Yars' test out of Plesetsk]:
Russia successfully test-fires ICBM
MOSCOW. Dec 27 1834 GMT (Interfax-AVN) - The Russian Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN) test fired an RS-12M 'Topol' intercontinental ballistic missile
at 9:30 p.m. Moscow time on Friday, an RVSN spokesman Igor Yegorov told Interfax-AVN.
"The missile's exercise warhead hit a training target at the Sary-Shagan Kazakhstan test range with a planned accuracy," Yegorov said.
"The launch was designed to test a prospective warhead for intercontinental ballistic missiles," Yegorov said. "The Kapustin Yar range is unique
for testing elements of warheads for ballistic missiles," he said.
"Its test tracks and instrumentation system are the only ones capable of testing prospective warheads within the entire spectrum of possible
conditions of their delivery to targets in the RVSN's and Navy's interests," Yegorov said.
See also this story: www.rferl.org...
Russian stories on Капустин Яр and Тополь are here:
[using stock footage]
The 9:30 PM local time launch is related to local sunset at 5:08 PM [calculated on the heavens-above.com website] and occurs at a Sun elevation angle
of minus 64 degrees.
ALL three previous flights that were widely seen and imaged were launched within 10-20 minutes of sunset with the sun just below the horizon at the
target zone, illuminating any cloud/contrail activitiy from behind.
The two launches which did NOT create wide-area reports occurred LONG after sunset with sun elevation angles very, very far below the horizon, as in
Since I presume the plume visibility was due to sunlight, I do NOT expect any reports or videos of plumes in the sky. Conceivably the rocket engine
flame might create a dim starlike light, so we'll still need to watch out for reports.
The previous tests occurred at approximately year-long intervals, but this test has occurred only two months after the last one.
Can anybody locate any NOTAMS warnings for this launch?