"North Korea is not going to war," senior U.S. official says

Originally posted by Zaphod58
reply to post by FraternitasSaturni

 

Of course, because only the US has been provoking this. North Korea has been sweet and innocent all along and hasn't done anything wrong.

This hasn't been handled well, but the US isn't the only one involved here. Before you say "sanctions are an act of war", a technical state of war has existed between the DPRK, the ROK and the US since the 1950s. Just because they haven't been actively involved in wartime operations, doesn't mean everything has been peace and love until recently.

Zaph... seriously... for the US you use euphemisms like "This hasn't been handled well" for NK you use suggestion, exaggeration and try to imply that they have actually done something this time... which they havent and to the US they actually havent done anything... ever. Since the 50s.

And yes the sanctions are an act of war, I'm glad you know that already and you recognize it as so.

And you already admitted that the US is provoking NK in a conversation we had before... soooo... why bother. You know my stance. I'm not victimizing NK, what I'm saying is that a nation with the power and experience like the US in the stronger higher position should be above this kind of behaviour and be the one to take the first step towards a peaceful solution and not going around behaving like that angry weird 20 year old picking on first graders and using their butter knives as an excuse to show off his .45.

The US should be cooling this instead of pouring gas into the fire... just that. I couldnt care less about NK. My concerns are with the civilians - millions that could die because of that dick contest. Like I said, you already know my stance, I dont know why you put me in a position where it seems like I'm saying poor little kim. But the truth is... the US is pushing a war right now and you know it.

Soon there will be no way out. The US is closing the circle really tight around him. Either he will back down and be seen as probably the weakest leader (even weaker than his father) before the whole world, OR he has to breathe deeply and put his money where is mouth is and give the order.

All I say is that... this could all be avoided thats all.

Originally posted by stirling
Jeezuz they could ship the friggin thing Fed Ex for THAT matter.............

That would also work with maximum effect.
Ship it international air freight.
Put a barometric pressure sensor on it.
When it reaches 2000 feet as it drops into Reagan national airport, Let it rip.

Originally posted by Mr Tranny

Originally posted by stirling
Jeezuz they could ship the friggin thing Fed Ex for THAT matter.............

That would also work with maximum effect.
Ship it international air freight.
Put a barometric pressure sensor on it.
When it reaches 2000 feet as it drops into Reagan national airport, Let it rip.

Sooo... theres no control over there? no screening no nothing? you just put a nuke on a plane and thats it?

Where do you people live? I mean... what ROCK?

Originally posted by FraternitasSaturni
Sooo... theres no control over there? no screening no nothing? you just put a nuke on a plane and thats it?

Where do you people live? I mean... what ROCK?

US controlled Screening happens after it has already reached US ports. These attack vectors would initiate the detonation before it reaches the US cargo handling system.

As for as the security of the originating port. Many of them have no security procedures. On the ones that do, the security only goes as far as the people enforcing that security.

If you have sympathetic people in charge of port security and container screening in a specified location, then you can put what ever you want in the system.

You only have to have a few people in key locations to expedite the movement of such items. To everyone else, it just looks like another cargo container from the yeyang toy factory.

Like the situation where they busted several australian port security workers that were paid off to allow the smuggling of guns into Australia. The question as to who was allowing them to ship containers filled with guns was never even ask because the originating port is uncontrollable. You can only deal with it after it reaches your country.

Originally posted by eriktheawful

Molly Hatchet Album

en.wikipedia.org...


"Silver and Sorrow" (D. J. Brown, B. Crump, D. Hlubek, S. Holland, D. Roland, Banner Thomas) – 3:36 (demo)

3:36

66

North Korea, while posing a real threat to the South, is representative of its scared leadership who was intimidated initially by joint US-SK military exercises and finally by the stealth bomber run near their border. They are trying to look big and make a lot of noise like you would if you came across a bear or mountain lion in the woods. Metaphorically they are peeing in their collective pants. The other "rationale" for their seemingly irrational behavior is a) to solidy Kim Jung Un's relationship with the old line military generalship and to endear himself to the masses in their armed forces (thus nullifying any notion of a coup) and b) to unify and distract his people from their everyday wooes (like hunger and want). The danger comes later when China is ready to get aggressive and they are able to pull the strings.......

reply to post by Mr Tranny


Nuclear weapons have signatures. I doubt anyone can explode one in 2013 and not telegraph their identity in the process.

reply to post by 0zzymand0s


But it would take time to gather analyze that information to make that determination. Far too late to make an immediate retaliatory attack.

And if we do find out who did it a week later, will the leadership have the will to launch a full out nuclear strike after a week has passed? Or will he decide to go with a conventional attack?

Responding a week later kind of takes the ummph out of the response.

It is kind of like the sinking of the SK ship. If they knew who it was right when it happened, then you know that they would have responded militarily. But after a week or so, all they can really do is ring thier hands.

reply to post by Mr Tranny


The size and power of such a warhead would be immediately known, even by civilians. From this information alone, the design of the weapon could be surmised. From that? A relatively easy identification of the weapons original manufacture. Possibly within minutes, definitely within hours.

reply to post by 0zzymand0s


From the size and power of such warhead? The US, China, Russia, Israel, France, UK, India, and Pakistan have weapons that run the power level gamut from 1kt to 300kt and way above. Exactly what the heck are you going to determine by the total yield of a weapon, besides how badly it destroyed things?

The design is not a determining factor in yield. Or vice versa.
The various designs overlap greatly in usable yield range.

They have two stage designs that have yields well down into the single stage yield range.

There is nothing in the physical evidence that can be used to determine the weapon design. The only thing that can be used is radiological evidence.

And even with radiological evidence, the connection is sketchy at best. We don’t even have any idea of what the weapon design they have. Unless you have samples of fallout from other devices they have used, then you have nothing to match it to. If they used active material from another country, then the trace element signature would point to the other country.

And considering we gave NK reactor material, NK has shared radiological material with Iran, and Iran has got material from Russia, then who knows where the signature may point to. The signature may match a US bomb signature, or any other signature under the sun if it came from NK.


That is what gets me about people talking about identifying the source of a nuke from it’s “signature”. The situation is a lot more complicated, than that. The answer will not be as clear cut.

We may spend years analyzing samples and information and would still not have a solid idea of where it came from.

reply to post by Hefficide


A sensible post !

Quite ! No one's going to war. It will all fade away, something more important will grab the MSM attention, and we'll all forget about it. " The emptiest vessels make the most noise " someone once said, and Mr.Un is an empty
vessel, with no grasp of reality...sad for the people of North Korea.

Regards. Mr.John Smith.

reply to post by Hefficide


While to me it also looked like these are nothing more than provocation, the ignorance with which you are saying it, calling people 'doom patrol of fun of fear' makes me think you have lots of arrogance in there. What makes you so certain that they are unable to go for a real action? Just because some official says so? Sure at this time it's just provocation but further sanctions and they may be capable of doing something, just ignorantly saying 'Ohh they won't do that' close your eyes and your'e doing a mistake. One should be ready for everything even if it's just words... Gosh, some are so blinded by their own ego..

There is one thing that I will always remember from the First Gulf War. Lots of intense negotiations and back channels talks. I was 14 at the time, and naturally concerned we asked one particular teacher "are we going to war". She replied with utmost confidence, with all the negotiations and discussions going on we are NOT going to war

Then two days later, "oops, sorry negotiations have failed" have a cruise missile instead.

That taught me to:

1, never trust the official line, it is never in as much control as they like to make out (we all know the public sector employes the cheapest, and less qualified)

2, Never trust someone who when relying on the official line, categorically states that war is not coming.

This is usually a sign that war is coming, and they need the element of surprise of it happening to get people riled up and "behind the troops"

Do not overestimate your influence in the region. And do not underestimate their resolve. If this was still K.J.Il I would agree this is chest thumping. However it is not, and this guy is an unknown, even to the analysts in the Pentagon.

Please look at this map




My first question is why the hell is in in English

Secondly doesn't it remind you of an airlines flight path map with a few adjustments ?

As soon as I noticed that; well

Hardly a clever thing to put on international news

Originally posted by cody599
My first question is why the hell is in in English

The words in the original photo are Korean.
The US words you are seeing is where someone half transparently supper imposed a clear English US map picture over the image to make it more clear. In the original photo, you could barely make out the outline of the US. So it was really hard to se where the lines terminated.

Originally posted by Mr Tranny

Originally posted by cody599
My first question is why the hell is in in English

The words in the original photo are Korean.
The US words you are seeing is where someone half transparently supper imposed a clear English US map picture over the image to make it more clear. In the original photo, you could barely make out the outline of the US. So it was really hard to se where the lines terminated.

My mistake
I suppose I should have noticed that Guatemala and Nicaragua are not generally believed to be on some NK generals hat

Apologies
Humble Cody

What makes you think that China does not want to have North Korea stretch us to our limits? China could have drove tactical nukes into NK and who would have seen it?

All the players just had a major meeting and now we have their distraction going ahead. Look at what Russia is doing. Sending the whole Black Sea fleet out on a surprise exercise, RIGHT!!!

All while China is amassing missiles and troops along the coast with Taiwan. NK and Iran will make a move at the same time throwing the U.S. in a pickle. Protect Israel or South Korea and Japan.

Only then will China take Taiwan and the islands around it. Sure we could nuke them all and stop them all in their tracks but do you think the chicken # Obama will really do that?

reply to post by Hefficide




They could try... hehe

To say North Korea is “not going to war” is probably true but its important to keep in mind a fact that eludes m any of the North Korean threads on ATS is that North and South Korea are still technically at war and North Korea even still has a US Navy vesicle hostage.

The question then is not will not if North Korea is going to start a war but if North Korea is going to instigate a new round of armed hostilities. In my view this is unlikely but it is not in any way a certainty. Just now much of the rhetoric coming out of North Korea is a attempt by Kim Junior to consolidate his power, unlike his father he does not have the same respect from North Korea’s veteran Generals who many believe really hold the power in DPRK. If all this rhetoric and provocation really is an attempt to consolidate his power as it appears to be then I would say there is no way he is going to instigate any new armed conflict to do so would almost guarantee his demise and that would be the opposite of consolidating power.

The problem is that he might just push a little bit too far and unintentionally give South Korea the Casus belli to hit back at North Korea and before you know we could have the whole of the Korean Peninsula in flames. I have read from some analysts that they think this is a real possibility as little kimmy has a tougher job than daddy did as securing power and the respect of the military and as such he is pushing things that little bit further. He is also very inexperienced and very much influenced by the Generals this combination could lead to a new phase in the war.

Another possibility is that the military themselves either assume control or some General takes it upon himself to lob missile at Seoul, that would certainly start a fresh round of conflict. It’s also a real possibility that it could happen especially if they believe that little kim isn’t pushing hard enough. Or if they start to get itchy trigger figures.

So while yes i don’t think we are going to see a new round of war on the Korean peninsula, I wouldn’t be as bold to say it absolutely won’t happen.

Originally posted by terriblyvexed
That sucks I needed a nuclear war it would have caused mutations,in
human DNA that turns into a virus, then when the survivors turn to cannibalism
To survive bam zombie apocalypse! How fun would that have been!


Plus I just payed this guy 300 bucks for a atomic bomb proof tent

see you ya freik you are needing sent to north korea prior to bombs falling