posted on Oct, 26 2004 @ 11:11 AM
I don't agree with several ideas behind this thread, and I'll tell you why.
As far as the "origins of oil" theories go, I don't agree with the inorganic creation of oil, but I am open to the possibility. It just doesn't
fit in well with other things we know about petrochemistry.
I grew up in an oil-producing area of Texas; I have been involved in the oil futures market for the last decade, and continue to supplement my income
with profits made from trading futures, oil and natural gas among them.
Here's the problems I see with the whole "peak oil is a hoax" thread.
1. The price of oil is determined by the free market, not some secret "wall street zionist cabal." Oil futures are traded on NYMEX, and you can
trade there yourself, if you choose to, merely by putting up a few thousand dollars margin.
2. Oil is produced by nearly a quarter of the nations on the globe, in some capacity. One of the things you need in order to control prices is to
control production. And that simply doesn't exist. Think of the major players in oil, aside from Saud, Canada, and Mexico. Most of them have a
love/hate relationship w/ USA, and I cannot imagine Nigeria, Russia, or Iran taking orders from USA, or even from each other.
3. American oil (America is a major producer, btw) is extremely decentralized, with probably half the oil produced by independent operators who own
less than twenty wells. On your next vacation, visit Cushing, Oklahoma, and talk to the locals. Cushing is the delivery point for New York
Mercantile Exchange contracts. You will meet a whole buncha farmers who don't give a rip about the govt or anyone else telling them what they ought
to do with their oil.
4. The cause of high oil prices is indeed American demand. The problem is not the lack of oil, but is actually the lack of refining capacity.
Environmental legislation passed in the early 90's means that only a dozen refineries have been built in the past decade, while oil demand continues
to rise. Most of that demand is focused on the coasts. California sits on several major offshore fields, in shallow water; but CA law prohibits new
drilling because of enviro concerns. The bottle neck is actually the refining capacity, and not production.
5. The "deep oil" links at the top of the thread are hilarious; russian oil, and yukos in particular have been linked to some of the biggest market
manipulations and investor scams in recent history. Unlike the American/Euro free-for-all of open auctions in oil, the Russian markets are miniscule
and suffer from heavy state "intervention." If "deep oil" is so prolific, why is Yukos trying to declare bankruptcy and repudiate its debts? Why
wont Putin let it, if their inability to pay were legitimate???
6. If anybody in North Korea actually thought they had access to exploitable reserves, they'd surely halt their expensive weapons program, funnel
the money into oil exploration, and start selling to China and Japan, two of the biggest oil consumers on the globe. Even Kim Jong Il could see that
oil is more potent than bombs. So why isn't NK exploiting this? Because it isnt true . . .