Obama leading in Ohio 60% - 39% among early voters

Obama leads in Ohio and Virginia

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

Virginia

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Link

Looks more and more likely that Obama will take both, the Electoral College and the popular vote.

He's also in very good position to possibly steal Florida. Nevada is already in the bag for him Colorado looks like a real toss-up

I'm just posting so I can come back to this on Wednesday..

2nd

reply to post by Xtrozero


Alright cool

See ya!

This isn't new, if you actually followed unbiased polls, you would see that in the last 2 weeks Obama has been getting a pretty comfortable lead on every poll.

Just look at Nate Silver's model:
www.bloomberg.com...

Right now it has Obama 85.5% chance of winning and that percentage seems to be increasing every single day.
And please read Nate Silver's blog before you rub him off as an Obama biased supporter. He gets paid to be accurate, if his model is wrong, he has nothing to gain from it.

But yeah, conservatives seem to watch Faux News for their "daily updates" and expect to know what's happening in the real world.

Originally posted by Flow101


But yeah, conservatives seem to watch Faux News for their "daily updates" and expect to know what's happening in the real world.

Stars just for this, well ok stars and a rootbeer covered screen.

reply to post by muse7


Your link is a *for hire* polling company...here's a snippet from their about us page...

The vast majority of Public Policy Polling's surveys deal with campaigns, politics and public policy. Our samples are usually based on the voter registration database of a given state because the opinions of people who vote, and actually influence the system, matter most in these cases. We find this method to be more accurate for political purposes than random digit dialing.

Voter registration databases have lots of information on each individual voter including gender, race, party affiliation, age, address, precinct, municipality, county, districts, and voter history. They do not have phone numbers. PPP purchases samples from lists created by Aristotle International, Inc., a company who takes the voter databases of each available state and appends home phone numbers to match each voter. In targeting our surveys we can then select voters based on any of the registration criteria. For example, we could conduct a survey of only black voters from Cumberland County, NC who are registered Democrats.

Not exactly front page news...small potatoes actually....

Des

reply to post by Destinyone


What`s new? He only posts these polls lol

Ok,im looking at these numbers and im a little confused.According to this poll,Obama leads Romney in base by 52-47%.I'm ok so far.Then under already voted for the President yes=60% and no is 48% which adds up to 108%.Romney is yes=39% no=51% which adds up to 90%.So is this poll whacked or am I?

Originally posted by Destinyone
reply to post by muse7

 

Your link is a *for hire* polling company...here's a snippet from their about us page...

The vast majority of Public Policy Polling's surveys deal with campaigns, politics and public policy. Our samples are usually based on the voter registration database of a given state because the opinions of people who vote, and actually influence the system, matter most in these cases. We find this method to be more accurate for political purposes than random digit dialing.

Voter registration databases have lots of information on each individual voter including gender, race, party affiliation, age, address, precinct, municipality, county, districts, and voter history. They do not have phone numbers. PPP purchases samples from lists created by Aristotle International, Inc., a company who takes the voter databases of each available state and appends home phone numbers to match each voter. In targeting our surveys we can then select voters based on any of the registration criteria. For example, we could conduct a survey of only black voters from Cumberland County, NC who are registered Democrats.

Not exactly front page news...small potatoes actually....

Des

Are you honestly saying that PPP isn't a legit polling company???

Wow, just wow.

Originally posted by buckwhizzle
Ok,im looking at these numbers and im a little confused.According to this poll,Obama leads Romney in base by 52-47%.I'm ok so far.Then under already voted for the President yes=60% and no is 48% which adds up to 108%.Romney is yes=39% no=51% which adds up to 90%.So is this poll whacked or am I?

You add the columns, not the rows.

So it is asking who already voted, for the "YES", 60% voted for Obama, 39% voted for Romney, and 2% voted for Other (they put undecided). They round, so these numbers add to 101%, but if they actually showed the raw numbers it would work out.

Don't try to add up the rows, add up the columns.

reply to post by Taiyed


We are honestly saying that lol

Originally posted by hououinkyouma
reply to post by Taiyed

 

We are honestly saying that lol

Whatever makes you feel better.

So what polling company is legit in your opinion?

Originally posted by Taiyed


Are you honestly saying that PPP isn't a legit polling company???

Wow, just wow.

They're as legit as MSNBC is.

reply to post by Taiyed


Gallup is and they are a worldwide organization.

Who cares op... wish nov 6 would hurry up. Whoever gets elected count on losing more rights and paying more taxes..


That simple.

Originally posted by buckwhizzle
Ok,im looking at these numbers and im a little confused.According to this poll,Obama leads Romney in base by 52-47%.I'm ok so far.Then under already voted for the President yes=60% and no is 48% which adds up to 108%.Romney is yes=39% no=51% which adds up to 90%.So is this poll whacked or am I?

nvm way too tired right now to figure it out. but it works out about right. Romney will win the election day vote in Ohio but not enough to offset the lead in early voting for the President.

There is one piece of good news for Republicans in these polls- Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission is headed for defeat with 39% of voters planning to support it compared to 49% who are opposed.

I blame the superPac's for this. They have bought out all the freaking ad time against the President and Brown making it far more difficult for local issues to get ad time. This one will be back either in the spring or next fall when it can get the attention it deserves.

Originally posted by beezzer

Originally posted by Taiyed


Are you honestly saying that PPP isn't a legit polling company???

Wow, just wow.

They're as legit as MSNBC is.

MSNBC doesn't do polling.

But Fox News does, and they have Obama up 3 in Ohio in their last poll.

Of course they stopped polling in Ohio once their polls kept coming up Obama, but still, their latest has him up by 3.

Originally posted by hououinkyouma
reply to post by Taiyed

 

Gallup is and they are a worldwide organization.

edit on 4-11-2012 by hououinkyouma because: (no reason given)

Gallup doesn't do state polling.

btw, I'm not shocked you cherry picked your poll to match your own biased view.

Originally posted by Xtrozero
I'm just posting so I can come back to this on Wednesday..

2nd

Sup?