First 48 hours after a strike on Iran

The Institute for National Security Studies held a war game recently in which players representing regional actors simulated the first 48 hours after an IDF strike on the Islamic Republic.

The simulation was based on the scenario of a unilateral Israeli strike without US participation, after midnight on November 9.

The Tel Aviv University-based institute began the game with the following “announcement”: “Al Jazeera reported that Israeli planes attacked nuclear sites in Iran in three assault waves. Following the reports, Israel officially announced it attacked nuclear sites in Iran, since it had no other choice.”

In this scenario, the strike successfully destroyed nuclear sites and set Iran’s nuclear weapons program back by three years.

As part of the exercise, Iran responded with full force, firing some 200 Shihab missiles at Israel in two waves, and calling on its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and other radical organizations, to attack Israel. At first, Iran refrained from striking US targets in the Persian Gulf region in the war game.

In the game, Israel, bolstered by a successful strike, attempted to absorb the attacks while trying to de-escalate the situation and reach an end to hostilities as soon as possible.

The international community remained paralyzed due to Russia’s attempts to exploit the situation to advance its strategic interests.

“After two days, the Iranians, and to a lesser extent, their allies, continue to attack Israel. The crisis did not appear to be approaching a solution,” the INSS concluded at the end of the war game.

Within the first 48 hours, Israel carried out a fourth air assault on Iran to complete the destruction of a main nuclear site.

“Israel’s strategic aim was to prevent a regional escalation and to strive to reach a level in which incidents were under control, in low intensity, as quickly as possible,” the INSS said

Link

Very interesting article.

Unfortunately, it doesn't elaborate beyond the 'positive' interpretation which sees Israel succeed in a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

I undoubtedly want a safe result, I hope Israel will be able to do this without educing a wider conflict, but, unfortunately, I do not trust the fanatic mullahs will not block the strait of Hormuz. That question alone determines whether the war stays between Israel, Iran and its proxies, or the war devolves into a wide scale regional conflict with the United States.

And who knows where it will go after that.

About blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I don`t see how Iran could possible do that with American ships on the region.

I have serious doubts about their capacity to strike back. Besides using some of the Hezbollah and Hamas forces, which would not work very well on a full scale war.

This is one of those funny but not so funny jokes... Lets see.

"In the game, Israel, bolstered by a successful strike, attempted to absorb the attacks while trying to de-escalate the situation and reach an end to hostilities as soon as possible. "

Thats wrong in too many aspects.

The shahabs will level tel-aviv... (its not like too many are needed) and the sheer number of casualties coming from such an attack will certainly NOT help to "end the hostilities as soon as possible". Plus when the dust settles down they'll be even more pissed cause they practically lost tel-aviv but did nothing to the nuclear facilities, themselves being too deep for anything (even shockwaves) to reach there.

In a vary bad luck scenario, they'll hit a low-deep level chemical and biological weapon storage facility - the bio and chem weapons are now airborne. The wind will dictate what goes next - the entire middle east first, or israel itself? Millions if not billions are in danger because of a stupid action by israel - the world is trying to decide what to do with israel at this time since it was their first strike and it proved to be extremely dangerous not to iran, but to more than 20 countries.

The comic-book part:

Israel was the first to strike - the us responds "hell no, we wont go"

Russia consorting with China and seeing that the US does nothing, comes in to fix what its seen as a threat to their own land due to the spread of the bio-chem cloud, in good russian style it wont respond with finesse or strategic strikes, nope, it will come in good old russian style, brute force, and nuking the hell out of israel (well the harms been done so, one cloud, two clouds who cares) and spreading concrete allover the place while drinking milk. Spetnaz go in in hazmat suit executing any survivors in the shadows while Putin says before the UN "we did everything within our reach to help our fellow Israelis, unfortunately nothing else could be done".

- Obama is watching all this live action in his 3d tv using the stereoscopic cameras from his 200 uavs and going "told you so stupid bibi, lights up a cigar and calls Angela, bush and rom to share the feed"
- Hillary Clinton goes "We Came, We saw... we got the hell outta there mwhahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH"

Europe just looks at it - "hell... that cloud may as well take Turkey with it - one less to worry about"
Angela Merkel says "Might as well take greece too..." asks Obama if haarp can spread the cloud to greece - promises 10 trillion dollars "hey its better than to bail out greece" - Obama agrees.

All the action distract muslims allover the UK, which are too happy to notice the SAS wet teams cleaning every muslim house in the UK.

Bibi survives the destruction in Israel and is now working for the History Channel in a program "I survived my own holocaust, I mean, the real one. Heres the milk I drank to prove it".

Originally posted by dontreally


I undoubtedly want a safe result, I hope Israel will be able to do this without educing a wider conflict, but, unfortunately, I do not trust the fanatic mullahs will not block the strait of Hormuz. That question alone determines whether the war stays between Israel, Iran and its proxies, or the war devolves into a wide scale regional conflict with the United States.

And who knows where it will go after that.

lol you want to kill millions of iranians
safely

mental issues perhaps?

Originally posted by hououinkyouma
About blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I don`t see how Iran could possible do that with American ships on the region.

you answered your own question right there: American ships on the region
just disable them and presto, straits blocked

War Games never play out like reallity, war games are based on assumptions and you can never assume your enemy rational.

And you can be certain regional escalation will take place, it can not be avoided.

Israel would not be able to absorb a Iranian onslaught unharmed without american support.

Originally posted by hououinkyouma
About blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I don`t see how Iran could possible do that with American ships on the region.

I have serious doubts about their capacity to strike back. Besides using some of the Hezbollah and Hamas forces, which would not work very well on a full scale war.

edit on 4-11-2012 by hououinkyouma because: (no reason given)

Mainly due to the smaller faster more maneuverable boats in Iran's navy. The encounters are routine.. yet the pushed a little with aggressive behavior and it was noted that just due to the difference of speed and maneuverability, they could possibly fight our larger vessels well, even with our overwhelming firepower. Kind of llike trying to shoot a chicken running around only 10 feet away with a scoped rifle. There are a few active duty Navy here.. hopefully they will chime in and add to this. Id heard this straight from a guy we were hosting at our home between deployments who was involved in "playing chicken" games in the straight earlier this yr with Iranian fast boats.

www.cnn.com...

reply to post by dontreally

Dontreal do not troll !
in case of such wars what you call it Armageddon all the inhabitants of Israel will escape to their real homelands and will live in peace and serenity forever !

I'd say just use an emp on Iran. Send it back into the stone age. It would take decades for them to get back to normal with all there electronics fried! They'd be using donkey bombs to fight back.

reply to post by TheMaverick


Undoubtedly, it's preferable that Israel have American support.

But if by the time Israel feels its either now or never and America isn't on board, Israel will go it alone and deal with the consequences.

reply to post by dontreally

come on , what will Israel gain !? which problem of Israel will this attack solve !?

Originally posted by dontreally


Unfortunately, it doesn't elaborate beyond the 'positive' interpretation which sees Israel succeed in a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

I undoubtedly want a safe result, I hope Israel will be able to do this without educing a wider conflict, but, unfortunately, I do not trust the fanatic mullahs will not block the strait of Hormuz. That question alone determines whether the war stays between Israel, Iran and its proxies, or the war devolves into a wide scale regional conflict with the United States.

And who knows where it will go after that.

So what I understand so far is that you would like to see Iran be attacked for producing electricity, you do not trust fanatic mullahs who shut down the straight of hormuz as they said they would if attacked.
(no attack and the straights stay open)
you are unsure if the US would join because iran has proxies and not allies.

The US would never get involved to help an ally would they?

why is it that all scenarios make it look like Israel just fly in and destroy the nuclear fasilities with no problem?
dont they have to worry about Iranian defences? Oh of course they have to be taken out first which in itself is an act of war which entitles Irans so called proxies to join to help defend.

I love the term surgical strikes, but like all surgeries, there are always risks and possible complications.

reply to post by r2d246


you are one sad sad person , and its people like you that is the problem with this world that we all live on .
war is not a computor game , innocent people die and are mutilated in war , children are left as orphans

there is nothing heroic in killing civilians there is nothing heroic in any aspect of war

reply to post by dontreally


Be realistic here, it will be suicide to go it alone against Iran.
Israel defense would not be able to stop a Iranian missile onslaught.

It's not as if Israel could put boots on the ground, and that will be the only way Israel could stop a Iranian retaliation if Israel attacks first and alone.

Israel knows this, and it's why it hasn't attacked Iran yet, as much as people like to believe Israel has it claws in American polices, it still has to wait for America to let her of her chain, with American and British guns supporting and putting boots on the ground.

If romney gets elected, Iran can start to panic.

reply to post by TheMaverick

Be realistic here, it will be suicide to go it alone against Iran.

It would also be suicide to do nothing. If of course, you take Iran's threat to Israel as existential.

There's no room to dally with the idea "it's a mere strategic threat". That argument would be more credible if the threat in question weren't Islamist radicals who regard a fatal attack on Israel as worth the cost.

This isn't the atheist soviet union. This is beyond mere power politics. Iran is pursuing a nuclear bomb because it's shia doctrine sees Israels destruction as the precursor to the return of their 12th Imam.

Israel defense would not be able to stop a Iranian missile onslaught.

How do you know? They have the iron dome defense system. And eve beyond Israel's ability to cope with an Iranian response, they regard the latter option to be less harmful then the former. The former insures certain destruction. It would only be a matter of time till Iran managed to either launch a nuke at Israel or have some terrorist group smuggle it in to the country. The latter option provides Israel the latitude to at least delay their nuclear program by some 3 years, after which they can use diplomacy to bring an end to the fighting.

As bad as it will be for Israel - which I agree - it is far more dire for them to just ignore Iran's plans against them.

Israel knows this, and it's why it hasn't attacked Iran yet, as much as people like to believe Israel has it claws in American polices, it still has to wait for America to let her of her chain,

You mustn't know your history then. Israel went ahead without American support in the 6 day war, even though America provided Israel with armaments.

I don't doubt Israels 'chuzpah', if you will, to do this without America giving the go ahead.

Originally posted by tom.farnhill
reply to post by r2d246

 

you are one sad sad person , and its people like you that is the problem with this world that we all live on .
war is not a computor game , innocent people die and are mutilated in war , children are left as orphans

there is nothing heroic in killing civilians there is nothing heroic in any aspect of war

edit on 5-11-2012 by tom.farnhill because: (no reason given)

I'm just joking around. For the record, nothing I say on this entire forum should be ever taken all that seriously. Besides an emp wouldn't kill anyone. It would make things harder for sure, but that's to prevent this whole new clear build up. I know MSM is playing us all for fools though. They make it look like Iran and the US/un have this big rivilry. What a joke. They're working together behind the scenes

Originally posted by dontreally
I do not trust the fanatic mullahs will not block the strait of Hormuz.

You are just too blind to see the Irony in your own Post.
You Describe an Unprovoked Attack on Iran, by Israel.
Then call the Leaders of Iran "Fanatics".

Priceless

reply to post by r2d246

Besides an emp wouldn't kill anyone. It would make things harder for sure, but that's to prevent this whole new clear build up.

well except for anyone with a pacemaker, or anyone in the hospital, or anyone dependent on any electrical device to survive.....

And then again you have hospitals completely crippled.......no medications going out, no production of anything that will save their lives....

DEF a better alternative then a nuke..........but to say that no one will die because of it isnt accurate

If Israel attacks Iran, wouldnt they just build another nuke facility and go ahead and build their bomb and without notice just go ahead and bomb them ?

Originally posted by JHumm
If Israel attacks Iran, wouldnt they just build another nuke facility and go ahead and build their bomb and without notice just go ahead and bomb them ?

my guess is there's a lot of underground tunnels between the israel borders and other nations and palastine. So they'd bring in there nuke that way if they would. But I doubt a nuke would ever go off right in isreal. the bible doesn't say that will happen. What will likely happen is the dome of the rock church will be destroyed somehow.

reply to post by hououinkyouma


I think closing the strait is quite simple.

Oil spill, 2/3 tankers scuttled etc. How would American subs and ships operate in an oil slick?

Keep in mind that Iran and North Korea are buddies and North Korea has the bomb (I think it was an Iranian bomb they tested the 2nd time personally)

This war has been coming for at least 5/6yrs, you don’t think Iran isn’t prepared with some pretty significant secrets?

Iran are itching for a fight, if Israel hits them, Iran aren’t going to just look for negotiations after 2/3days of Israeli strikes... I'm pretty sure it will escalate beyond Israel's control!

These kind of releases are aimed at making the populace believe striking Iran is feasible and manageable when its anything but.