October 29, Black Monday

Every time this date rolls around I think of the implications historically for the stock market.
This year is quite unusual.
The markets will be closed. Possibly for two days.
When it reopens it could be bad news for the insurers and retail and business losses even before the
crushing blows of a bad earnings season for the LAST quarter are announced.

What do you think of this year's version of October 29th being the date slated for the Perfect Storm?

reply to post by PaperbackWriter


i think you are just another permabear freak always looking for doom in everything. its wind, water, rain. get over it. 98% of the planet is not being hit with a storm right now

Oh OK. My bad. So the market is going up on Wednesday?

www.zerohedge.com...

Originally posted by SuperTripps
reply to post by PaperbackWriter

 

i think you are just another permabear freak always looking for doom in everything. its wind, water, rain. get over it. 98% of the planet is not being hit with a storm right now

98% of the planet isn't the epicenter for the largest economy in the world. As we've learned from Greece a tiny country can have a huge impact on the entire monetary structure. NYC isn't just any city, it along with London are the financial capitals of the world. NYC also has some of the oldest infrastructure in the country, along with a very important underground mass transit system.

Then you have to consider that many of the other states in the projected paths refine a significant amount of oil that we consume. Look at the record high gas prices in California caused from one refinery closing.

Yes price does react to significant dates in history and on top of that earning were a miss, almost all securities are already below QEternity announcement levels and sellers don't seem to be giving up.

But other than that all is well in world tralalala

I think what SuperTripps is trying to say that the implications would not be so much on global economy as national economy. Trade will still occur internationally, as will the investors over the phones. The storm is hitting the north east, a hybrid storm that is simply the combination of two normal storms to simply create an "abnormal" storm. This is not the kind of thing that really has something tied to it that could be catastrophic.

Saying that "so you're saying the markets will go up on Wednesday" is not really fair either. They could, you don't know that, we don't know that. Speculation leads to fear and panic, both of which are a disease to mankind.

reply to post by Kouin


there are non stop doom and gloomers on these boards the last few years which is why I rarely come here anymore to waste my time.

its too bad because I like to educate people.

whatever you look for, you will find

the stock market being closed for a natural disaster is not really news.

in fact..more business in shopping/supplies, etc was done this weekend in the NE than in several weeks combined I bet. so in other words GDP likely will get boosted

and then as insurance pays off to cover people on losses..that previously deadend money insurance companies had is now recycled into rebuilding, construction, contractors hiring workers, people buying stuff they lost in floods, etc

again, it increases activity

who cares if insurance companies lose money. they already had taken most of these people's money for years and have been earning money on it.

reply to post by SuperTripps


I'd be more willing to agree to that. But I would point out that there is heavy problems if insurance companies go bankrupt. You could be looking at additional bailouts and government guarantees being issued for insurance companies paying out checks that can't be cashed which would be a significant blow to the US economy. However, for that to happen, you'd have to have a storm which has more than a handful of abnormal characteristics. Sandy only posessess a large storm surge and multiple forms of precipitation. Again, Sandy is not really the kind of storm the media is making it out to be.

The positive of this is just as you said though. The kind of wording used by "official" statements can make people move. People buy products, and that in turn boosts the GDP.

Funny note however, when offices issue watches and warnings and nothing happens, people think forecasters are full of wind. But when there isn't enough warning, people always complain about needing better preparations. Can't have it both ways I'm afraid.

I would like to say though, that is all pure speculation.

www.zerohedge.com...
online.wsj.com...

reply to post by Kouin


there are storms everyday. only real reason people are freaking out about this is because its flying by the media and financial centers

so of course they will play it up/broadcast non stop

reply to post by Cody618


So you've established that the storms cloud cover is larger than that of Irene's. That does not mean the storm itself is worse or better than storms prior. Sandy even at that size is only the third largest hurricane since 1998 and the fifth since 1990. Sandy does not have any of the rainfall totals which are typically accompanying that of a category one hurricane either. Winds are borderline of the criteria for hurricane classification as well at only 75 mph, by comparison a typical blizzard has wind speeds in excess of 58 mph (the same threshold as a severe thunderstorm does).

Please people, remember...when talking about a tropical system of any variety, the storm is the size of it's wind cone. It's effects can expand out of it in the form of storm surge, and that's about it.

Edit to add:
Irene was also considerably more powerful in wind speed as well. Landfall at 115 mph with higher gusts, this was only because it did not have a storm front shearing the storm. Most of what you are seeing is the front's associated cloud line interacting with Sandy as well.

reply to post by Kouin


then why are they freaking out so much. the cone is nothing special. because it could hit the other storm and then sit around for a few extra days?

Originally posted by SuperTripps
reply to post by Kouin

 

then why are they freaking out so much. the cone is nothing special. because it could hit the other storm and then sit around for a few extra days?

The thing that is unusual about this storm is the characteristics of it's interaction with another storm system. Tropical systems themselves have merged together in the past, but few have ever interacted with a frontal system that merged with that system before it was a dissipating low pressure system. The fact is, interaction between systems typically causes decreases in certain impact types and increases in others.

The probability of a storm actually stalling at that position are relatively low, and because of the trough and the cold air associated with it, it would absorb Sandy causing the system to dissipate. Likewise, if the storm continues forward motion it may SLOW the system down but it wouldn't stall, but due to cold air Sandy would rapidly decline in strength on landfall.

Originally posted by Kouin
reply to post by Cody618

 

So you've established that the storms cloud cover is larger than that of Irene's. That does not mean the storm itself is worse or better than storms prior. Sandy even at that size is only the third largest hurricane since 1998 and the fifth since 1990. Sandy does not have any of the rainfall totals which are typically accompanying that of a category one hurricane either. Winds are borderline of the criteria for hurricane classification as well at only 75 mph, by comparison a typical blizzard has wind speeds in excess of 58 mph (the same threshold as a severe thunderstorm does).

Please people, remember...when talking about a tropical system of any variety, the storm is the size of it's wind cone. It's effects can expand out of it in the form of storm surge, and that's about it.

Edit to add:
Irene was also considerably more powerful in wind speed as well. Landfall at 115 mph with higher gusts, this was only because it did not have a storm front shearing the storm. Most of what you are seeing is the front's associated cloud line interacting with Sandy as well.

edit on 29-10-2012 by Kouin because: See above

I admit I don't know much about hurricanes or weather in general, but any threat to the global economy that's already teetering on the edge should be taken seriously.

reply to post by Cody618


There are threats to the global economy on a daily basis. War is a threat to the global economy, everyday storm systems are a threat to it. Global economy is always at risk, a storm system passing by does not mean the risks are any greater than they usually are. At least in the US, the market is closed for Christmas, and that even includes the weekends if it falls on a Monday or Friday, we've made it through that before just fine. People are still out conducting business on these days too.

I just think it's premature to assume because the market is closed for two extra days, that a global economic catastrophe is the only possible result.

Originally posted by Kouin
reply to post by Cody618

 

There are threats to the global economy on a daily basis. War is a threat to the global economy, everyday storm systems are a threat to it. Global economy is always at risk, a storm system passing by does not mean the risks are any greater than they usually are. At least in the US, the market is closed for Christmas, and that even includes the weekends if it falls on a Monday or Friday, we've made it through that before just fine. People are still out conducting business on these days too.

I just think it's premature to assume because the market is closed for two extra days, that a global economic catastrophe is the only possible result.

Yes, I know, markets around the world close frequently, that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about about a hurricane combined with many other factors that we haven't seen in recorded history as far as I can find taking out tons of oil refineries and servers that trillions of dollars in unmonetized debt are stored on.

The world has never been more globalized economically and the geopolitical stage has arguably never been more volatile so we really have nothing to compare this moment in history to.

reply to post by PaperbackWriter
Of you are crazy enough to be in the stock market to begin with and fool enough to not know how, when and where to be In and Out of the Market quickly, you absolutely deserve to be a sacrificial lamb. This aside, if for the long term you have anything but Preferred Stock in a Blue Chip Company, you are a Cockroach anyway and are meant to be fertilizer. Now you know.

reply to post by Cody618


You are mistaken. Katrina was a storm which cost us billions of dollars, and shut down many refinaries. The 1991 Perfect Storm was in the same region and was during an economic downfall as well. This storm is only historical in its classification, not by what it actually is. We have these kinds of events once every 10 to 20 years, we've been due for a while.

Originally posted by Kouin
reply to post by Cody618

 

You are mistaken. Katrina was a storm which cost us billions of dollars, and shut down many refinaries. The 1991 Perfect Storm was in the same region and was during an economic downfall as well. This storm is only historical in its classification, not by what it actually is. We have these kinds of events once every 10 to 20 years, we've been due for a while.

Katrina was 7 years ago and the "Perfect Storm" of 1991 was 21 years ago. 2012 is whole new era where the 2 largest economies on earth have been forced to debase their currencies by issuing unlimited quantities of debt to prop up markets that are bubbled up to multi year highs even though earning are at multi year lows and almost every other leading indicator we have shows a slowing global economy. The massive worldwide credit bubble is larger than ever before and could blow any minute with a single trigger event. I'm not saying Sandy is going to be that event, but Earth and her forces should never be discounted. I don't think you realize how much of NYC infrastructure is underground including the electrical lines that power Wall Street. A lot of projections are saying this could be one of the most costly natural disasters in our history which would be devastating right now especially as a brand new report shows that net U.S. savings are at a year low, meaning the reconstruction will have to be funded by even more debt.

Originally posted by Kouin
reply to post by SuperTripps

 

I'd be more willing to agree to that. But I would point out that there is heavy problems if insurance companies go bankrupt. You could be looking at additional bailouts and government guarantees being issued for insurance companies paying out checks that can't be cashed which would be a significant blow to the US economy. However, for that to happen, you'd have to have a storm which has more than a handful of abnormal characteristics. Sandy only posessess a large storm surge and multiple forms of precipitation. Again, Sandy is not really the kind of storm the media is making it out to be.

The positive of this is just as you said though. The kind of wording used by "official" statements can make people move. People buy products, and that in turn boosts the GDP.

Funny note however, when offices issue watches and warnings and nothing happens, people think forecasters are full of wind. But when there isn't enough warning, people always complain about needing better preparations. Can't have it both ways I'm afraid.

I would like to say though, that is all pure speculation.

edit on 29-10-2012 by Kouin because: Revised statement.

First of all, it was an accident that I tagged this global meltdown. Then again, it could be serendipitous, too.
Talk about a storm that hasn't lived up to the hype so far.
Weather Channel looked like buffoons to the point that Jim Cantore said he could walk down a street to find winds. They just weren't happpening in the Battery!
The experts desk couldn't find the "eye" for the alleged hurricane either!!. Personally, I think it was always just a Noreaster.
When it came along my coast the radars showed we should be getting dumped on by rain. We got nary a drop here.

So, I scratch my head and wonder about all the implications of having the purported storm of the Epic stupendous porportions hyped, be the cause of markets to close for two days.

When I logged onto Yahoo a few moments ago there was a breaking news snippet at the top that said a building had collapsed in NY. Only to be replaced a few seconds later by a breaking report in the same spot saying "Sandy" has been downgraded. I kid you not.

Was this to stave off the inevitable sell-off that's already been baked into the cake? Or something else is going down behind the scenes?

Originally posted by PaperbackWriter

Originally posted by Kouin
reply to post by SuperTripps

 

I'd be more willing to agree to that. But I would point out that there is heavy problems if insurance companies go bankrupt. You could be looking at additional bailouts and government guarantees being issued for insurance companies paying out checks that can't be cashed which would be a significant blow to the US economy. However, for that to happen, you'd have to have a storm which has more than a handful of abnormal characteristics. Sandy only posessess a large storm surge and multiple forms of precipitation. Again, Sandy is not really the kind of storm the media is making it out to be.

The positive of this is just as you said though. The kind of wording used by "official" statements can make people move. People buy products, and that in turn boosts the GDP.

Funny note however, when offices issue watches and warnings and nothing happens, people think forecasters are full of wind. But when there isn't enough warning, people always complain about needing better preparations. Can't have it both ways I'm afraid.

I would like to say though, that is all pure speculation.

edit on 29-10-2012 by Kouin because: Revised statement.

First of all, it was an accident that I tagged this global meltdown. Then again, it could be serendipitous, too.
Talk about a storm that hasn't lived up to the hype so far.
Weather Channel looked like buffoons to the point that Jim Cantore said he could walk down a street to find winds. They just weren't happpening in the Battery!
The experts desk couldn't find the "eye" for the alleged hurricane either!!. Personally, I think it was always just a Noreaster.
When it came along my coast the radars showed we should be getting dumped on by rain. We got nary a drop here.

So, I scratch my head and wonder about all the implications of having the purported storm of the Epic stupendous porportions hyped, be the cause of markets to close for two days.

When I logged onto Yahoo a few moments ago there was a breaking news snippet at the top that said a building had collapsed in NY. Only to be replaced a few seconds later by a breaking report in the same spot saying "Sandy" has been downgraded. I kid you not.

Was this to stave off the inevitable sell-off that's already been baked into the cake? Or something else is going down behind the scenes?

www.nytimes.com...

"Record Water Level at Battery, With Higher To Come
At the Battery at the bottom of Manhattan, the water level was at 10.7 feet as of 7:20 p.m., breaking the record of 10.0 feet set by Hurricane Donna in 1960.

The level was expected to hit nearly 12 feet by the time the tide crests at 8:53 p.m., the National Weather Service said."

"Cars Floating on Wall Street
As the evening high tide was drawing closer, there were reports of flooding in several low-lying areas around the five boroughs, places that had not in recent memory experienced flooding. In Lower Manhattan, water crossed South Street, and cars could be seen floating on Wall Street on television screens at the ConEd headquarters. In Brooklyn, water had piled back onto Van Brundt Street — which flooded during the morning high tide — well in advance of the evening high water mark. At 7:25 p.m., Ninth Street in Gowanus was a nearly uncrossable river of water."

Just because it's been downgraded doesn't mean it's not a threat, the area is still seeing record storm surges, and the tide still isn't at it's max.