reply to post by ALF88
The buzz is always coming from people, that I don't trust from my bed to the loo. Sorry.
And you are entitled to your suspicions.
However, I believe that certain matters are of major importance, and a country pursuing nuclear weapons without being clear about it, in my opinion,
is a subject to pay attention to.
If the claims of Iran having dubious facilities are unfounded, I'm sure history and further investigations will determine that someone was feeding
I'm assuming you agree that even the U.S. - when they rushed their intelligence about Iraq - can't get away with lying to international community.
Eventually, someone finds out.
Personally, I believe in that individuals and organizations - governments and such - are entitled to innocence until proven guilty. But an
investigation and inspection isn't a statement of guilt, it's just that, an investigation.
Ask the United States what they are doing at Area 51 and Groom Lake.
I don't need to.
It's well known that the Area 51 is used to develop secret aviation technology - that's why it has such long runways, I believe - and was once used
to test nuclear warheads, underground and at surface level.
You see, even a facility like Area 51 can't hide all of it's secrets. That's why there is no point in Iran hiding Parchin because they don't have
anything worth hiding, in my opinion.
There is more danger coming from those to places for world peace than the rest of the world together.
I disagree with that. A lot of the technology coming out from those places allowed the U.S. to have effective operations that prevented bigger
conflicts. Kosovo is an example of that, since the F-117 (developed in Area 51) was used there.
But that's going into politics, and those are way to subjective.
That is not the point and you know it. Iran has a right to keep their military installations secret, just like every other country as
Yes, I know. But Iran also has to raise the question to them-selfs if it's worth it to hide some secrets and go to war with trigger-sensitive Israel,
or open the door slightly to allow IAEA inspections.
We are not talking about Israeli or American influence, but IAEA's. And I refer again that, if Iran wants to use IAEA to justify and validate their
nuclear program, then they also have to give in and recognize IAEA credibility to inspect their sites.
That's how I see it.
Do you think the pressure on Iran will get less if they leave the NPT?
Yes, I do.
It's possible it could get worst before getting better, but I believe it would be the only suitable exit for Iran other than allowing access to
If they leave, there are two scenarios that I can imagine:
1- Iran isn't going for nuclear weapons.
2- Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
If 1 is true, then Iran is free to pursuit their economical goals for nuclear energy and oil production. If they continue to state that they don't
want nukes, people will doubt them less
than before, because Iran won't have a reason to lie about it anymore. This seems a bit stupid, but
it's true. If they have no obligation, their statements could be more credible than signing the NPT and then having dubious behavior.
If 2 is true, then Iran is free to do so. Nobody will have the legal authority to ask them to halt the program, or to disable any nukes. They will be
fully entitled to have all the secret facilities they wish, and deny access to them.
Either way - 1 or 2 - Iran is going to face some consequences for leaving the NPT. They will lose international support, monetary and technological -
which has aided them in the exact goals they deem as their own - and will be to their own responsibility to house, develop and possess that
I use my bases for this opinion on what has happened with North Korea, Pakistan and India. They are clearly open about their nuclear programs, and
people might disagree or object to their existence, but they gain more respect because they are making their own rules and acting on their own
Israel would either have to commit to their own measures to stop Iran and have no legal background to protect them-selfs, or they will have to accept
Iran for what they are, like the world accepted all non-NPT nuclear powers.
It's better to be alone than to be poorly judged by world agencies because you fail at certain key articles of an agreement.
However, we will have to live with the risk of making such a decision.