Originally posted by Russian
Now i would like to go to another topic. Vagabond started to talk about how USA will take the world.
Negative on that. The USA will not take the world, but like most powerful nations it will continue to jockey for position in what I call "the global
chess game". It was never my intention to start another "US RULES!" thread- you will normally find me trashing people who post that crap.
Well I think he is wrong and I will state my theroy on what I read and facts.
USA world domination will not go any further. It will actually decrease soon in the next 20 years. Reasons are....
I believe you and I will begin to agree with eachother on a great many things. I agree that the era of bi-lateral/unilaterally dominated geopolitics
is over and that nations traditionally subject to the will of a large neighbor or America will begin to act on their own. My illustration was of the
ways that certain nations may begin to act out on their own- and yes i included America because America will do their best to continue as a power.
1. Japan wants world demonation and right now it demonated by USA. If it breaks away from USA demonation then USA looses demonation in Asia.
2. To get world demonation Japan is starting to think about building nuclear weapons.
Funny I think I mentioned that Japan would gain influence. I personally believe that Japan will eventually persue an alliance with China, but in the
short term it is somewhat possible that Japan would expand into weaker/failing nations in the pacific.
3. South Korea doesnt like USA being its protector so they want to go nuclear to so North lorea cant threaten them. South korea knows that USA puts
its self infront of all.
4. South the loss of domination of South Korea USA will lose the whole Asia.
First of all, America does not dominate Pacific Asia by any stretch of the imagination. If anyone could be said to dominate Asia, especially the
mainland, it would be China.
America has only a limited economic stake and a newly developed nuclear concern in Korea. South Korea is by no means a strategic anchor of the region.
The peninsula is strategically unimportant, except in the event that America wished to wage a limited conventional war on China (just like the
original Korean War). The loss of South Korea will increase America's need for a global missile shield.
Japan is far more important to America's hold on Asia because of it's controlling position over the Chinese Coast. Although it will grow in
strategic importance as the Chinese navy grows, it will be an acceptable loss when Japan steps away from America simply because America and China have
no intention of going to war with eachother at this point. Furthermore, America can still command the seas off of its west coast from Hawaii, the
Aleutians, 13 aircraft carriers, and potential puppets in the pacific such as the Phillipines.
Last but not least, you are overemphasizing Pacific Asia and ignoring Southern Asia. America has begun to shift it's attention to this region and has
anchored its position with Afghanistan, which is a favorable terrain for defense. It is to be expected that Iran will join this chain of American
puppets, and Iraq will be kept their as well. In the future America may consider attemtping to take Syria as well, although the world will not
tollerate this indefinately. Turkey may very well threaten intervention at some point if America continues to play games in that region.
Back to South Korea- South Korea will likely start to back away from America but must be careful not to find itself dominated and exploited by the
North. I think the South realizes that only a democratic and capitalist integration of North and South can be beneficial to them. For this reason
South Korea will need a new ally. India may be a good ally for South Korea when they leave America's side. India has a history as the leader of
nations who wish to remain Non-Alligned in such conflicts. Japan is unlikely for historical reasons but otherwise a sound choice. Russia is not the
best choice for a nation like South Korea but it would work so long as Russia maintained rivalry with China.
5. The only dominaton USA will have in Asia is a tiny Singapore and Tawain that is trying to do what USA deosnt want them to do.(Seperate Nation from
6. Singapore and Tawian dont like each other very much. The PM os Tawain call Singapores President a filthy scum just resetly.
You're forgetting the Phillipines. Their president let our troops in against the constitution... thats just a hint that perhaps this nation is
heavily under our influence.
7. Russia is now putting bases in former USSR republics.
8. Georgia is like Cuba but its land locked so now that Russia has bases around Georgia USA will not be able to help Georgia very much.
9. Geogria has backed themselfs into a corner where Russia has stripped them of some of their land(break away republics)
Perhaps you didn't read my last post. When challenged I took it upon myself to deny ignorance and do additional research- this was enough to change
my opinion- I do not believe NATO will WANT to help Georgia. Again however you are skewing the facts; NATO could operate from Turkey to aid
And Yes, we've all noticed that Russia is regressing. They theoretically could attempt an invasion of Europe, however even if they could take Europe
they do not have the resources to consolidate their grip and exploit those nations. They would only overextend themselves and quite possibly provoke
attacks from China or America on their Eastern or Southern border.
I must maintain that Russia, while capable of defending its own interests and perhaps limiting American efforts in southern asia, will not be
contending for any kind of hegemony over a much greater region until it can make reforms in its economy and military. They would also profit greatly
from forming alliances which limit the advance of America's thinly vieled imperialism (Iran, Eastern Europe, Northern Africa)
10. New upcoming Ukrainian president wants to move closer to having much better relations with Russia and not trying to join NATO.
11. Ukraine has leased Russia its biggest ports for Russian Black Sea fleet.
12. Belarus is trying to merge with Russia.
13. France has now become a Russian friend and even recently the first time in the worlds history Russia has docked a nuclear submarine in France.
14. Frances hates USA.
15. The whole Europe is not to happy with USA exept UK.
It's sort of an inside secret, but a lot of Americans have hated Europe since the late 70s. Those who follow military/strategic concerns resented
their "let America handle it" attitude towards their own defense.
This DOES have economic implications for America, but this can be negated by continuing to subvert oil-bearing nations and by increasing influence in
As long as America can keep up with the European economy they'd probably prefer to just stop pretending they were friends.
I know this may come across as typical American arrogance, but it is a fact that our allies provide little more than "moral support" or a political
pretext for actions. America isn't gaining anything material from them that they couldn't acquire by raping the defenseless.
The reasons above it why i think USA will not dominate the world anymore then it is right now. It might even go down on how much it dominates.
Also if John Kerry is President the USA domination will last only a small time. So if you Americans want a good life for some more time vote for Bush
as he will kep USA on top.
The USA will probably have a very large stake in this world for the next 50 to 100 years. After that things are much less certain. During that time,
America will at least attempt to increase it's military presence in South Asian puppet states and to take resources both from there and from South
America. When the bubble breaks, America will be where Russia has been in recent years, but short of militarily enforced foreign regulation, America
will continue to be a strong force in her immediate area, which means bad things for Cuba and Mexico.
China will grow to be far and away the dominant economy in the world. Economic sanctions will be meaningless without cooperation from China and a
Chinese embargo could be the ruin of a nation. I believe China will work more within the UN and other world organizations rather than by military
force which will reduce their need for a geographic spread, however it is without doubt that their military technology will begin to catch up to
America's, even in terms of "black projects".
Japan will militarize to guard against China, may expand into the pacific, will begin to defy America politically, and will likely struggle for a
greater level of diplomatic relations (alliances) in their region until eventually succeeding- providing that they continue to be at the forefront
technologically so that they have something to offer.
Russia will present some challenges to US expansionism in the near term, but will be chiefly concerned with regaining its former strength for at least
a couple of decades. Eventually Russia will have to find close friends of her own size and strength. It is likely that Russia will find this frienship
first in the EU and later in China. India is a possibility, but only if Russia is on the outs with China and India maintains a strong economy.
India will likely see it's economic growth stall at some point simply because they have to play second-fiddle to China. This can be avoided first and
foremost by creating a stronger navy than China and by fool-proof THAAD which completely protects them from Pakistan in nuclear terms. They will need
to find friends who wish not to be aligned in this global struggle in order to prosper in trade. South Korea is a good candidate. Japan and Australia
are potential partners to a lesser extent. Other nations seeking to grow outside the influence of the world powers such as Brazil may also join such
an association. If India became a strong enough rival to China they may think about invading South East Asia, but I don't see any concrete reasons to
believe this would really happen or even be remotely possible. India probably wont grow that strong.
The European Union will seek to surpass rivals economically. They need to expand significantly- finding a way to get Russia onto the Euro would
certainly do the trick. This would give them economic leverage that could rival even China, however I am not certain just how cooperative Russia would
be, especially with the trend being seen in Russia these days.
This may very well stabilize into a sort of world oligarchy. There may be 4-7 large spheres of influence dominated by key nations or alliances which
can work within the UN. If I had to guess, I'd say we'll spend the next 100-200 years watching these large spheres of influence grow and stabilize,
which will include the fall of a nation or two: Russia and America being prime candidates for that fate if they aren't careful. After this, depending
on who you ask, either the aliens will show up to introduce themselves or the anti-christ will show up to put christians in ovens. Maybe the later
will happen under the guise of the first
. You'll have to ask the religious people about that.
Short answer: no the USA wont take over the world. They're just the only ones making a military effort to do so, which is why reading my projection
of the future may seem a little America-centered.
[edit on 21-10-2004 by The Vagabond]