posted on Jul, 27 2012 @ 09:35 AM
Assad STILL controls his army AND hezbollah.
If you understimate the Aleppo battle, you must know things that I do not know.
If the syrian army wins, their morale will be boosted.Assad needs this victory EVEN if only to stop or dramaticaly lessen the number of desertors.
If the syrian army loses, there will be a huge numbers of desertors, boosting the rebels morale AND numbers AND fire power.
Assad, in theory, has already lost.He does not control the borders, he does not control almost half of the country and he cannot stop the flow of
mercenaries into Syria.
But, he did not lost practicaly, because he have some powerful cards on his hands.The most important is the chemical weapons.He WILL use them if he
considers that he lost.
The second card is Hezbollah.Hezbollah WILL join the fights if Assad loses badly, not necesarily to HELP Assad, but because Hezbollah WANTS some of
Assad's chemical weapons as a detterent against Israel.
The rebels have specialy trained troop in taking over, control, deliver and transport the chemical weapons.
Same troops are already preped by both Hezbollah and Israel, from diferent reasons.
I am NOT telling that thousand of dead in Aleppo will tip the balance.I am only saying that in order to WIN the Aleppo battle, and win it without
doubt, there will be thousand of dead.The number of dead will ONLY be a "bonus" for the winner's morale outside the strategic goal.