Sun-Diving Comet / Earth Directed CME April 24, 2012

Not sure if this has been posted but couldnt find it with search.

CME is expected on 27th. Looked like a sizeable impact.

Opinions.

Spaceweather.com doesnt appear to be concerned so I am not concerned.

spaceweather.com...

Thanks, stars and flags, but I don't understand how its Earth directed

Strange that spaceweather is giviing no info about it. They are usually on top of pretty much any flare the sun exhales.

Originally posted by wWizard
Strange that spaceweather is giviing no info about it. They are usually on top of pretty much any flare the sun exhales.

Agreed. Which makes me wonder about the previous posters question. What makes the comets impact an earth-directed CME at all?

It is a bit strange that not more is being said.

Check this out.

www.solarham.com...

Look at plasma density spike at 15:00 on 26th. Quite clearly shows something may be due. Nearly 8 times the normal average.

Originally posted by murch
It is a bit strange that not more is being said.

Check this out.

www.solarham.com...

Look at plasma density spike at 15:00 on 26th. Quite clearly shows something may be due. Nearly 8 times the normal average.

Thats interesting. So are they saying this CME was just launched aroun 6:00 this morning? Perhaps spaceweather.com doesnt have it up yet.

Will be looking for some solid measurements on how big this ejection actually was. Thanks OP.

For those that dont believe this is genuine or why the cme is earth directed.

From the government site.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Looks like spaceweather just updated the main site ...

A minor CME is en route to Earth, due to arrive on April 26th. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% to 30% chance of geomagnetic storms.

It doesnt appear to be much of a concern though.

reply to post by underduck


Did they happen to note the class and magnitude of the flare?

Originally posted by wWizard
reply to post by underduck

 

Did they happen to note the class and magnitude of the flare?

Yeah ... C-Class. Just a little guy. Nothing to worry about this time.



www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Ok looking for some help.

This event looks small in all aspects apart from one. The plasma density. Is it not quite unusual to have a density in the range of 30-40 cm3.

What affect will that have.

reply to post by murch


That is unfortunately somethinig I cannot help with. I have no idea but I am bumping this back up to see if we can get some sort of expert in here to explain.

Ok I dont know much about all this but I am trying to learn.

Went and had a look at the 3 day space weather forecast here:

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Got this data for 25th 26th 27th:

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
rob_High:
High/Active 15 10 15
High/Minor_Storm 25 25 25
High/Major-Severe_Storm 25 40 25

Does this mean there is a 40 % chance of Major-Severe_Storm?

Originally posted by murch
Ok I dont know much about all this but I am trying to learn.

Went and had a look at the 3 day space weather forecast here:

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Got this data for 25th 26th 27th:

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes

rob_High:
High/Active 15 10 15
High/Minor_Storm 25 25 25
High/Major-Severe_Storm 25 40 25

Does this mean there is a 40 % chance of Major-Severe_Storm?

Keep in mind that this 40% is also refering to high latitude points on earth where these types of storms are much more common and less of a threat to electronic systems and the majority of the people on earth. The middle latitude probabilities are much smaller.

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active 25 40 25
Mid/Minor_Storm 10 20 10
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 1 5 1

Christ I hope it doesnt.

Just checked the definitions.

Extreme
Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); high radiation exposure to passengers and crew in commercial jets at high latitudes (approximately 100 chest x-rays) is possible.

Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible.

Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.


Severe
Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; elevated radiation exposure to passengers and crew in commercial jets at high latitudes (approximately 10 chest x-rays) is possible.

Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded.

Other systems: blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely.

LOL

Thanks man. Was a wee bit worried there. Goes to show a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Phew.

Originally posted by murch
Thanks man. Was a wee bit worried there. Goes to show a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Phew.

No problem. I like the site you were posting though. Will be checking that in the future.

I still wouldnt suggest taking any plane trips over the north or south pole around that time though.

Ghaa wish I hadnt started looking at this. Im getting paranoid now.

Solar wind speed needle is approaching the red bit.

mms.rice.edu...

reply to post by murch


That just means that it is "active". Trust in the electromagnetic field. It has protected us well for now. These storms get FAR more intense than what we are seeing now. Wait for the next X-class flare before you start to worry too much.