Coming Face to Face With An Escalating Volcano from 5000km Away

Face to Face from 5000km?

Isnt 5000km the complete opposite of Face to Face?

Originally posted by Ixtab
Face to Face from 5000km?

Isnt 5000km the complete opposite of Face to Face?

Well maybe the next time someone pretty darn relevant to the situation asks you on the phone if you'd like to volunteer some observation hours for the USGS, because that person also knows the extent personally of your capabilities with some tools, then maybe you'll grow your imagination enough to understand my thread title.

Also- an update...heard again that there still has been no gas flight, weather has been a problem.

Yeah, weather has been sketchy the past few days. Had some clear weather last week for the auroras, but has been cloudy/snowy for a few days now. I got 16+ inches of fresh snow yesterday alone.

reply to post by Girdwood


Well I was told that an unusual steam plume was spotted from satellite coming from Iliamna. They sent me the pic of it from the University in Anchorage. And yep, looks like a long steam plume, going high up into the atmosphere. I can crop and upload the pic if you like. I was also told they are all holding a conference call to discuss Iliamna today too. Haven't heard yet the results of that. At the moment she has calmed back down a bit. I was told "When it comes to volcanoes erupting, prepare for the marathon and not the sprint."



Yep. I'll update when I know more.

Did you guys know there have been some pretty big quakes right near Iliamna in the past? Namely, one 6.7 quake at 145 km depth, another 6.0 at 120 km, and another 5.0 (hidden from view):



I found these using google earth.

I still have no word back yet on anything from the conference call- waiting.

Updates (yes I heard some news):
There is consensus that seismicity is above background levels.

There is not "total consensus" that the smaller events are seismic.

For the bigger events though, at least some seem to think it is from rock breaks due possibly to magma intrusion. Or it might be another dike emplacement, like happened last time.

Also sounds like the overflight from the gas people may happen today or real soon.

As I pointed out to my contact, research showed that there were increases in gas emissions in 1996/97 during the last period of high activity. So even if they find increases this time, I proposed that perhaps they compare the two. With the plume discovered and all, they may find that the emissions this time are well above that of last time. Or maybe not. Dunno. But this is sure interesting!

The AVO repositioned the Platform Anna webcam a few days ago to include Iliamna (on the left) and Redoubt (to the right). Webcam link

You may be able to pick up the plume from this NASA Global so2 monitoring.
Just click on the red box for the area you're interested in; but be wary of the straight lines--they are most probably artifacts.

reply to post by Olivine


That is close to the view during my commute to work. I see Redoubt clearly, but Iliamna only on a very clear day with the lighting just right. No steam since last week. I have a friend flying to Kodiak today. He is gonna take a look. Another frien flys over Iliamna tomorrow, she is gonna try to get pics.

How goes the volcano? Have things quieted down? Any more stream coming from Iliamna? It will be interesting to hear what Girdwood has to say and if his friend got pictures.

reply to post by AuntB


I have news that the overflight happened. No word on data analysis yet. Probably tomorrow or soon on that.

And no more mention of the steam plume, at least to me... And she has pretty well quieted down, for now. My first watch was a flop- no eruption...

The news I had been waiting on is finally in- from the overflight for gas emissions! And I quote:

SO2 and CO2 are about 5 - 10 times normal (for Iliamna) and a bit higher than the maximum levels detected in 1996. This points to a magmatic intrusion, but remember that not all intrusions result in eruptions. Most don't.

Ok then. So looks like chances are high that magma is (or was) on the move under Iliamna. And the gas levels are reaching higher than the max in 1996 during the last period of high activity. All this is good though. Learning the lesson that even in the face of magma on the move, increased seismicity and gas emissions, it may just settle back and do nothing. In fact it probably will. My contact has made the point repeatedly that a critical component is missing at Iliamna: GPS for ground deformation monitoring. Perhaps if we had that, we'd have a better idea of the chances of it erupting.

So at this point it's anyone's guess. But seismicity has certainly slowed from where it was, and appears to be fading to background levels again. Another few weeks or so of this, and I would expect the alert level to drop back down again to green. But watchful eyes remain watching, just in case.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


TA your an excellent watcher and I think we all know that! I think IMHO being that you are so good at what you do, They have asked you to join in ~ to see and feel what They too are feeling/dealing with. When I first found ATS I envisioned you sitting in this huge room with instruments everywhere monitoring everything - - still envision you that way - Maybe something to come of that! They are teaching you and They are helping you and you are helping Them = pay attention and keep up the good work :-)

Been watching here also with what little I have - never under estimate rising gas levels = Do Not Let Your Guard Down - just yet!

reply to post by Anmarie96


Lol, well thanks, Anmarie. *blushes*

But I am just learning this stuff, and for sure I won't let the guard down just yet.

I would like to share another little dimension to this that I haven't yet. And that is, when they told me at the very first about the increase in seismicity at Iliamna (IL), and you know, they gave me the one station to watch- well, part of what I did was start as much research as I could find on the volcano, so I would be better prepared going in, and could ask more informed and intelligent questions. I mean after all, if they are willing to help me, I'd be an idiot not to.

So check this out. About 2 days or so into this, I had learned a pretty good bit about IL, and at that point I knew about the period in 1996/97. I was back and forth with my contact about it, learning more and more, when all of a sudden they raised the alert level to yellow. I was totally surprised because I knew IL had done this before, and in fact, the symptoms were remarkably similar. So I questioned why, and pretty much told them I was laughing my butt off, because I saw no reason to raise it, knowing this volcano is notorious for this.

So here we have me, Mr. Fearmongering, Triggerhappy Alerthog, laughing at scientists because THEY raised the alert on a volcano that has lots of bark, but no bite!



I mean I just think that's hilarious! But I did write them back and tell them that actually, I was thrilled they raised the alert level. Because it now gives me a sense, from a much closer perspective, that should anything at ALL go down serious at a place like Yellowstone or Long Valley, you better believe these guys will be on it. And thankfully, they have shown that they are more trigger happy than me!

So let that be some comfort to any and all who doubt otherwise!

reply to post by TrueAmerican

So here we have me, Mr. Fearmongering, Triggerhappy Alerthog, laughing at scientists because THEY raised the alert on a volcano that has lots of bark, but no bite!

priceless

I've been following this thread since it's inception also and while I don't really have anything to contribute of substance, I did want to let you know that there are others out here who appreciate your efforts.

I'm glad to know that us tinhat wearing chicken littles do have a voice within the hallowed halls that seems to have found an audience.

Keep up the great work!

Just thought I would link the current weekly alert summary for Iliamna (and other Alaska volcanoes). They discuss the overflight that occurred on March 17th.

A flight to measure levels of gas emission and make visual observations of the summit area occurred on Saturday, March 17. Data from the flight indicate that the volcano is emitting elevated levels of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, consistent with a magmatic source. It is not known, however, if this is a newly intruded magma, or whether new pathways for gas from preexisting magma have caused the increased gas flux. The amount of gas being emitted is broadly similar to levels seen in 1996-1997, when a likely magmatic intrusion but no eruption occurred at the volcano.

Observers on the flight saw vigorous and plentiful fumaroles (gas vents) at the volcano's summit, consistent with the elevated gas emissions. No obvious signs of recent rockfall, large areas of newly exposed bedrock, or unusual disturbance of the glacial ice were observed. Some deformation of the ice at the headwall of the Red Glacier on the east side of the summit was seen, but it is not clear whether this is related to the current volcanic unrest; avalanching of the glacier is common on this very steep area and was last seen in 2008.

The possible deformation mentioned sounds like it could be interesting, as do the "vigorous and plentiful fumaroles".
Thanks for bringing this activity to our attention, TA.
BTW, any updates on activity near the volcano? When I try to load the nearby stations in GEE, they come back--"no data available"

reply to post by Olivine


Yeah, they added some images for March 17th probably from the same gas overflight:

www.avo.alaska.edu...

The latest report pretty much nails it. Seismicity still comes and goes, but while still slightly above background levels, has dropped off considerably from the period that caused them to raise the alert level.

I have pretty much got a grip on all the signatures happening there, and am still monitoring it vigorously. What I don't like is when a new signature comes along. Cause to me it indicates that something has changed. And I just picked up one a few minutes ago- but it has not returned...yet.

As to your problem connecting, perhaps you should write an email to IRIS, explaining to them the problem. I'd be very curious to see how far you get. Good luck. You're gonna need it.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

I didn't understand your post.
Who may I ask are "they"? Re: they asked you to watch volcanoes.

MAP 3.8 2012/03/27 16:22:44 60.118 -152.908 111.4 69 km ( 43 mi) WNW of Happy Valley, AK

Source - USGS

Looks to be just 15 km or so NE of the summit. Do you think this EQ will lead to increased activity, or is it too deep to have any bearing on the volcano?

Link to AVO station ILW webicorder.

The 3.6, although close to IL, appears to be a subduction zone event, with a depth of over 110 Km. It fits the depth profile, if you'll look at the historical seismicity:

neic.usgs.gov...

However, in monitoring still, there appears to be a slight increase since that quake in microquake activity- but it is tapering off. Yeah, doesn't look like IL liked that too much.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Hey TA , what is this signal starting a little after 14:00UTC? Iliamna West webicorder

Telemetry issues? I am not leaning toward glitchiness, just because the tiny Mag 1.7 just north & east of the summit, shows in the middle of the "thick signal" at 15:30UTC.
Could it be tremor of the volcanic variety?