2012: The dangers of "Improvisational Millennialism"

2012 will be a year of change for a lot of people; however I would like to point out a couple of logical fallacies that bother me with most 2012 theories and hopefully you'll all be quite mature enough to handle my take on it. However, one should set out what improvisational Millennialism actually entails and how it affects, not just the 2012 theories, but conspiracy theories in general that tend to cherry pick data to consolidate their argument for a world changing, possibly catastrophic event.

Even if you are a 2012 believer, one must also realise the fact that many of the end of the world predictions have been wrong over and over again; a certain fellow by the name of Harold Camping should be a word of warning to anyone who claims that the world will end.
Harold Camping and famous people who wrongly predicted the end of the world.

Now y'all may be scratching your heads on what this has to do with the 2012 theory and what in blazes is Improvisational Millennialism but I will explain it now. "Millennialism" is the Christian view of the millennium that is rooted conceptually in a New Testament passage that prophesies that at the end of the time, the saved will "reign with Christ a thousand years" until the Last Judgement. (Rev. 20:4) By extension, one could surmise that this could mean that anyone who believes in the end of days or any religious vision that has seen the end of days could also be interpreted as a form of "Millennialism". This includes more secular denominations that are more contrary to political ideologies and nationalism rather than religious ideologies that are pumped with rhetoric. A couple of examples of political ideologies that benefited would be Nazism and Marxism and other forms of Nationalistic movements who promised a chosen type of people of a millennial consummation.

"Improvisational Millennialism" is quite different from the religious and secular sects of millennialism which would featured viewpoints on the ideologies from which they sprang while "Improvisational Millennialism" has the ability to relentlessly borrow various elements from ideas that previously had no connection or relationship to each other which in turn provides an esoteric and comprehensive viewpoint on the world and creates apocalyptic belief systems outside the rationale of religious or secular institutions. Some of the ideas that do not cohesively gel or don't fit together very well is not a problem as the author and the people that read it believe that a comprehensive unity will break down all conceived obstacles.

Again, one may ask; what has this to do with 2012?! I believe that the concept of IM has everything to do with the 2012 phenomena and I will attempt to boil it down to it's base components and show you how the 2012 conspiracy is borrowing bits and pieces from every culture/sub culture/religion/esoteric nonsense in order to validate their position of being in the "know". For now, I will break down the various problems that I have with the 2012 thing and how it is filled with logical fallacies that should make you at least a tad more sceptical at what is at stake here.

1. The Mayans predicted the end of the world due to their calendar ending at 2012 which is quite a feat for a stone-age society that routinely sacrificed people, had no glass for telescopes, nor even wheels to pull carts. Shame they could predict the end of the world, yet didn't predict the Spanish crossing the Atlantic ocean to destroy their culture eh? Of course, the Mayans never predicted anything of that sort; since it was New Age writers that reached that conclusion.
   
2. Geomagnetic reversal will not take place in one day as it takes place in a geologic time-scale that happens over hundreds of thousands of years.
   
3. Planet X does not exist since no astronomers have found any evidence of such a planet in our solar system whatsoever.
   
4. An alien invasion which is preposterous considering there are yet to be any signs of intelligent life visiting us from other worlds or spheres of existence.
   
5. A resonant frequency synchronisation beam which is completely befuddling in concept and reach. Search for the beam in Google and you'll catch my drift.
   
6. The Bible Code also predicts 2012 but that has been also completely debunked as junk science. www.skepdic.com...
   

Now while I have only covered a smattering of the theories that cover 2012, I have decided to let people draw their own conclusions from this thread and to at least be sceptical of the various theories that have been continually shoved in our faces by websites, New Age hippies, Hollywood and the History Channel. By continually borrowing esoteric (stigmatized) knowledge from various sources such as Native American legends, Shamanistic religions, UFO culture, astronomical claims, Abrahamic religious beliefs, crop circles, every other single calendar in an attempt to link it to the Mayan calender, conventional and fringe science, fringe archaeology, and all different types of various cultures; I conclude that while 2012 will be a year of change, there will be no impending apocalypse or huge spiritual awakening. It'll just be another year where the human race will continue to circle the drain that will inevitably lead to our mutually assured self-destruction.

And to add, Bible Code picked 2012 after their original date of doom didn't come true. How convenient eh...

10. Because a reversal of the magnetic poles would not be catastrophic.

It seems that every few hundred thousand years or so, the Earth’s magnetic field dwindles to practically nothing and then gradually reappears with the north and south poles flipped. Now this flipping of the magnetic poles—which appears to have last happened about 780,000 years ago—isn’t particularly dangerous, but this brief period—about a century or so in duration—of decreased magnetic fields could threaten life on the planet, for without magnetic protection, particle storms and cosmic rays from the sun, as well as even more energetic subatomic particles from deep space, would strike Earth’s atmosphere, eroding the already beleaguered ozone layer and causing all sorts of problems to both man and beast (especially among those creatures that navigate by magnetic reckoning). Further, scientists estimate that we are overdue for such an event and have also noticed that the strength of our magnetic field has decreased about 5 percent in the past century, possibly signaling that such an event may be in our immediate future—within a few centuries if not sooner. However, in being so gradual, should scientists in the future discover that such a shift is in the works, there should be plenty of time to take the necessary precautions to avoid the most destructive effects by moving underground or off planet, or perhaps strengthening the planet’s atmospheric defenses through the use of exotic, futuristic technologies. In any case, it isn’t something we need to worry about in the short term—though it could be a concern for those living a few hundred or even thousands of years from now.

9. An increase in sunspot activity in 2012 will not have any particularly detrimental effect on the planet.

As every schoolchild knows, our sun is constantly shooting gaseous plumes of white hot plasma thousands of miles into space which our atmosphere generously shields us from. Sometimes these plumes are much larger than normal, however, and are what we refer to as solar flares (more properly known as coronal mass ejections). Fortunately, these enormous magnetic outbursts that bombard Earth with a torrent of high-speed subatomic particles are also largely negated by the planet’s atmosphere and magnetic field, so we seldom feel the effects of these plasmic bursts, beyond creating havoc for ham-radio users and increasing the luminosity of the Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights. They are of concern mainly to space explorers, who really would have a problem if they are caught in orbit without suitable shelter when one of these things go off. The sun goes through a natural twenty-two year cycle when such storms increase significantly for a time before decreasing again. Such a period is scheduled to occur in 2012, which has some folks all atwitter. For those who are expecting the worst, it might be beneficial to realize that the sun reached similar period of solar activity in 1990, 1968, 1946, and it will again in 2034, 2056 and 2078. While these periods can produce large solar flares that can effect satellite communications and, in a worst-case scenario, adversely affect the flow of electrical energy through the power grids, it is unlikely to do more than produce some especially spectacular light shows in the northern skies and make people onboard the International Space Station a little nervous.

8. Because the poles cannot shift or the planet’s orbit be otherwise altered.

Some well-meaning but scientifically challenged individuals maintain that the planet’s physical poles are on the verge of reversing (that is, the planet is flipping over onto its top) or that gravitational forces from the other planets or from the galaxy itself could affect Earth’s orbit and, hence, dramatically alter its climate and environment. Fortunately, however, the gravitational forces that effect our planet and its place in the solar system are mandated by Newton’s laws of planetary mechanics and cannot be changed without some extremely rare (think one chance in ten billion over the next three billion years) and dramatic event taking place—such as a collision with a small moon or a massive black hole making its way through the solar system, both of which would be noted well in advance or whose effect would be so gradual as to take centuries to have any great impact. As far as we know, there are no such cosmic events known to be on the horizon—at least for the foreseeable future (and well beyond 2012).

7. Because Earth climate change is a gradual process and one easily adapted to.

Some take a more hand-on approach to the end, claiming that humanity will perish as a result of human-caused weather changes, which, it is claimed, will melt the polar ice caps, raise the ocean sea levels, and change weather patterns over large portions of the planet. Even if the science holds together, however—which many claim it does not—such a process would be felt over a period of years or even decades, giving human beings time to adapt to the changes (relocate, create shoreline reclamation technologies, etc.) It is even possible that a warmer planet might ultimately be beneficial by, for example, increasing arable land in Siberia and North America as the permafrost layer retreats northward. In any case, the year 2012 has no particular significance in regards to any Earth changes that may occur over the next few decades.

6. Because the people who suggest the end is coming don’t know what they’re talking about.

Unfortunately, human beings have a tendency to invest great authority in people who can convince them they are prophecy “experts” or have some sort of hidden knowledge others do not possess that allows them to read the future. Many of these people are sincere individuals who simply misinterpret ancient bible texts, while others are deluded crazies who only want to include others in their fantasy world. A few are even unscrupulous charlatans out to make a quick buck. The bottom line is, however, that nobody really knows what the future holds regardless of who they are or what methodology they use. There simply is no evidence that anyone has ever successfully prophesied some future event (beyond some short-term political or military events easily surmised by gauging current international trends) with anything approaching clarity or accuracy.

5. Because the Bible Code is a parlor trick.

Using a complex type of cryptographic code called Equidistant Letter Sequencing (ELS), journalist Michael Drosnin, author of The Bible Code, contends that one can find meaningful and related patterns of words and dates in close proximity to each other within the words of the Pentateuch (the first five books of the Old Testament and the heart of the Jewish Torah) which would seem to go beyond mere chance. One of these, he says, suggests the planet will be struck by a comet in 2012, with all the unfortunate consequences that would entail. However, critics dismiss Drosnin’s methodology as little more than a parlor trick, demonstrating that meaningful words and phrases can be produced using his method on any similar sized manuscript. For example, Australian mathematician Brendan McKay, an ardent critic of Drosnin’s process, demonstrated that a computer search of Herman Melville’s nineteenth century classic Moby Dick found a number of meaningful phrases in close proximity to each other (specifically having to do with the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination in 1995), suggesting that just as the eyes can be tricked into seeing familiar faces in random patterns of light and shadow, so too can the mind be tricked into finding meaningful phrases in random collections of letters where none exists. And if that’s not enough, Drosnin has been proven wrong about other “significant events” he claims were contained in the Bible, so I wouldn’t worry about it too much.

4. Because the Earth isn’t that easy to destroy.

Sure, there are things that could do the planet in, but Earth is a lot hardier a place than many give it credit for. After all, it’s been here for four billion years now, had its clock repeated cleaned by asteroids and comets, endured climactic changes of biblical proportions, and even survived a collision with another planet that created our own moon, and yet it keeps on ticking. And you think a few melting ice caps and puny nuclear weapons are going to do it in? Please…

3. Because doomsday prophecies have consistently been proven wrong.

Literally hundreds of dates have been picked by various religious leaders and self-proclaimed prophets over the last two thousand years as being the end of the world and not a one of them has ever even come close to being accurate. So why do we believe these same people today when they tell us the end is coming in 2012 (or whenever they imagine it to be coming)? Listen, you wouldn’t believe your doctor if it has been repeatedly demonstrated that he has never once correctly diagnosed a patient, so why give these guys the benefit of a doubt?

2. Because Nostradamus never picked 2012 as the end date.

It has been popularly believed that Nostradamus, the famous sixteenth century French mystic, suggested the end would come in 2012, perfectly coinciding with the Mayan date, which, if true, would be very spooky indeed. However, in reading through Nostradamus’ many quatrains, nowhere does he specifically mention the year 2012 or even suggest that the end would come around that time. In fact, his predictions extend all the way to the year 3797, making it seem we have some time yet before the end is neigh. Additionally, his writings are so obscure as to make any interpretation little better than a guess. Most of them are likely referring to events that took place in his lifetime, with the rest being so vague that they can be made to fit any time frame the reader so desires.

1. Because the Mayans never claimed it would.

The Mayans had many calendars they used, one of which was known as the “long count” calendar, which measures very long periods of time. According to this calendar (which has been known to archeologists for decades, by the way) the Earth’s “fifth sun” would end at the Winter solstice, December 21, 2012, at which point a new, sixth 5,125-year cycle would begin. What significance this had to the Mayans is a source of some debate, but it is the general consensus that they did not attribute to it any catastrophic events. Most likely, they simply considered it a time for spiritual renewal or introspection, which doesn’t sound all that dangerous to me. The teaching that the Mayan’s believed it was the end of time, then, appears to be a largely westernized misreading (or deliberate misrepresentation) of the significance of the Mayan calendar and Mayan beliefs associated with it.

Nice post. I truly believe that all of these "phenomena" can be characterized as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. People will see the shape of an elephant in the clouds if asked "hey, is that an elephant?" I would expect this trend to continue to fevered pitch as we grow closer to this "date in December." Pure entertainment at the very least.

Unfortunately this thread will do nothing to stem the tide of fearmongering. The sad thing is most of the people that buy into this nonsense don't even know why they believe in it. I have created a number of threads prodding why people hold these beliefs and no one has been able to provide a real answer. No one was even able to provide an example of a Long Count that ends after the 13th baktun. All they are capable of doing is repeating claims they have heard by New Age authors and conspiracy theorists without providing any kind of evidence to back up those claims. In the end they are just as much sheople, if not more so, as those "close-minded fools" that they mock.

reply to post by Xcalibur254


I was taught once that we don't have anything that isn't there for a reason. There is a certain species of bird, I can't remember which, in which it had two stubby wings, that didn't allow it to fly. Much like the ostrich has wings but doesn't fly, this doesn't mean the wings are useless, because in the past they were used to fly, but through evolution it has reached an "inbetween" stage where it no longer needs to fly, but there hasn't been enough time to pass for evolution to get rid of the wings. Getting to my point, going back thousands of years there has always been a tendancy for civilizations to predict the "end of the world', according to the concept I explained above, this would lead me to believe that it is in some way advantagous to us, or it used to be. Much like the wings would have been advantagous to the ostrich however many thousands of years ago, otherwise it would have never of grown them.

reply to post by Xcalibur254


I agree but I tend to hold some hope that when all this fearmongering amounts to sweet FA; that all the fearmongers themselves post apologies on the internet and fade into nothingness from whence they came. Then again, one can dream.

reply to post by MacDonagh


No apologies will be forthcoming from them. That's another question I've posed. When 2012 passes by with no doomsday or what have you they have stated that they will feel no responsibility for their fearmongering. I truly feel like many of them don't actually buy into it and instead treat the whole thing like a game. The only reason they claim to believe in 2012 "prophecies" is because it's "alternative." It makes them feel special and unique to support these "theories" even though they have no good reason to support them. The same goes for many other claims on this site. While there are those true believers out there it seems like a decent portion of this website are only "believers" because it is contrarian.

reply to post by Xcalibur254


I couldn't agree more. As I've posted before, my main concern about what happens on 12/21/12 is some yahoo with a certain amount of biological, chemical and nuclear knowledge will try to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. As for all the rest, only people who have reasonably comfortable lives seek armageddon, because for lack of a better reason their bored.

reply to post by Xcalibur254


It's most interesting that this thread has barely registered with most 2012ers. It seems that the truth is too difficult to handle for some people.

reply to post by MacDonagh


If I could give you more than one star for the Community clip I would. The reason why they ignore this thread is because it points out the uncomfortable truth. Despite what game they may be playing the fact of the matter is that their claims can have a real world impact. Even with the much mocked Harold Camping predictions we saw a number of tragedies. If the 2012 "believers" actually accepted that such tragedies could result from their own claims they would also have to accept that they were partially responsible for those tragedies. Instead they choose to continue to live in their own fantasy world where every problem gets solved without having to lift a finger.