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Hurricane experts admit they can't predict hurricanes early

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posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 03:44 PM
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Hurricane experts admit they can't predict hurricanes early


www.ottawacitizen.com

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities of hurricane seasons in December. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do in the long run.


(visit the link for the full news article)




posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 03:44 PM
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We have been scolded since 2003 for observing that AGW hurricane "predictions" have nothing to do with reality,

"Katrina" was supposed to be the harbinger od coming disasters.
After the IPCC shot down its own in-house critics, now that we have "independent" soueces acknowledging what many have long known.

How quickly will the MSM bury this?

www.ottawacitizen.com (visit the link for the full news article)



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 03:51 PM
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Originally posted by jdub297
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.



As mentioned in the other thread, this only applies to the December forecasts.
All other forecasts during the year will continue.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:12 PM
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reply to post by jdub297
 





Hurricane experts admit they can't predict hurricanes early


Well I'm not an expert and I've been saying this for years.
And then they want us to believe they can predict climate change too.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:14 PM
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Hardly suprising


After all they dont have access to the HAARP realtime data files



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:17 PM
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posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:20 PM
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I like how the article refers to them as "rockstars" in the South.

Um, I live in Hurricane Central (South Louisiana). Not only did I not know those guys' names, I haven't paid attention to their preseason forecasts for almost ten years now. They hit a home run in 2005 -due to luck. Every other year they got it wrong. Every year in May, right bf Hurricane season, the story comes out in the fearmongering MSM -"It's predicted to be a BUSY storm season this year!!!! FEAR FEAR FEAR!!!!"

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. I sure don't pay attention to those morons. Make sure you're prepared for the worst, have a plan, and hope for the best. Letting these fools and the media stress you out isn't helping anyone.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:21 PM
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They seem to be very accurate with the hurricane type weather hitting Scotland right now? Very, very unusual for us to have this type of weather.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:30 PM
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reply to post by pierregustavetoutant
 


Yeah seriously who are they.
I live in Miami and we have the NHC down here over by FIU.
We see the director of the NHC on tv whenever there's a hurricane.
And even then we take his prediction with a grain of salt.



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 04:34 PM
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Originally posted by grey580
reply to post by jdub297
 


Well I'm not an expert and I've been saying this for years.
And then they want us to believe they can predict climate change too.


Hurricanes and climate change are very different things. Hurricanes cannot be predicted because we don't have the processing power to precisely model weather on a global scale in real time. Climate change is long term process which can be predictively modelled relatively accurately, even with poor data.
edit on 13-12-2011 by aaa2500 because: spelling corrected



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 05:02 PM
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Originally posted by aaa2500

Originally posted by grey580
reply to post by jdub297
 


Well I'm not an expert and I've been saying this for years.
And then they want us to believe they can predict climate change too.


Climate change is long term process which can be predictively modelled relatively accurately, even with poor data.
edit on 13-12-2011 by aaa2500 because: spelling corrected


Is that so!.............Do Observations And Climate Models Confirm Or Contradict The Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming? – Part 1





CONCLUSIONS As illustrated and discussed in numerous posts at Climate Observations, the climate models used by the IPCC in AR4 show little skill at recreating the variations in global surface temperature over the 20thCentury


bobtisdale.wordpress.com...



posted on Dec, 13 2011 @ 10:08 PM
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Predicting hurricanes is not accurate with today's technology. A hurricane must undergo a series of steps.

1: Tropical Disturbance
2: Tropical Depression
3: Tropical Storm (this is where they get a name. Katrina, Irene, etc.)
4: Hurricane.

To advance in each of these steps, the air and water temperature must be warm enough (easy enough in the tropics), upper, mid, and low level winds must 'agree' with each other (no differences in direction). Prior to a hurricane, tropical disturbances and depressions come and go like nobody's business. Perhaps thousands of possible hurricanes develop each year. It'll be hard even for the experts to determine which ones will become hurricanes. We barely have the technology to predict the direction of the hurricane's travel rather than determine when and where one will form :O




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