posted on Dec, 7 2011 @ 12:28 AM
I really don't get where people think Ron Paul is improving. He is dumping a lot of money and energy into Iowa...but that's it.
This graph tells the whole story:
A single poll won't tell you much...but a series of polls can show you a trend. Ron Pauls trend is that he is completely flat. He has a block of
very very dedicated supporters...but they aren't increasing....and they aren't a large percentage.
The only other candidat that is flatter than Paul is Huntsman. Being flat in polling is not a good sign...it means that no one is paying attention to
you. It means you have your base, your base that will never abandon you (and for Paul that is between 6-8%)...and that's it.
Every candidate has their base of supporters that will never abandon them...but then there is the block of voters that sway back and forth...and it
sucks that this is the group that decides the elections because they are in general the dumbest and least informed people. At this point, if you
don't know who you support....you don't know what you support. And the bad news for Ron Paul is that this group of voters rely on the media to tell
them who is saying "good" things and who isn't. And the things Ron Paul says...in the eyes of the media...are crazy and extreme.
Right now, Gingrich has this block of voters in his corner. They may stay there...they may not. But if Gingrich falls, the big question is where do
those voters go. You guys are assuming Paul because he hasn't recieved a bump yet. But look at the graph...Romney was leading from the beginning.
Bachman and Perry rose, Romney fell, Bachman fell and Perry rose more. Perry tanked and Romney rose along with Cain, Bachman continued to fall. Cain
and Romney started to fall and Gingrich rose. In all of this...Paul stayed flat...which means that this block of voters that are bouncing all around
are not paying attention to him....at all. Despite claims, Ron Paul is ALL over the media...he just isn't winning anyone over. So if Gingrich
falls...where do these voters go? IMO, voters are more likely to go back to Romney, who is more similar to Gingrich than Paul is.
It's a game of similarities...Ron Paul is not similar to Bachman, Perry, Cain, or Gingrich.....but Romney is. It's just that this group of voters
would rather not vote for Romney...but they will if they have to.
I'm still not seeing it happen for Ron Paul...he is flat..and the primaries are coming up fast.
edit on 7-12-2011 by OutKast Searcher because:
(no reason given)