Some Advice Please...From The Experts

All,

I haven't ever created a thread asking for advice, because i can usually find the information i need through the Search function, however, i am quite a novice at understanding the Global Meltdown situation. To be quite honest, the terms used are another language to me, terms like "futures and options markets" etc.

Anyway, to the point of the thread. My partners father owns his own business. He is quite "wealthy" and is an avid investor. He is french from birth but has lived in the UK for about 30 years. He does the majority of his investments in the French stock market but does have interests in other areas too. I don't know how much he has invested but if i had to hazard a guess I'd probably say he had about £100,000 currently in stock value (shares).

I have had discussions with him about the security of his money, i genuinely believe its all going to come crashing down soon, and i have urged him to consider removing his money. The problem is, like most "fathers", he is adamant that he knows what he's doing. He strongly believes that people will always buy things so his money is safe.

He doesn't believe a 3rd world war is coming and doesn't even entertain the idea that governments are purposefully hurting/killing their citizens. (i've added this part in to allow you to build a very vague character persona of him). He's what i would describe as one of the sheeple.

My questions are...

How do you approach someone when you genuinely want to help them not lose everything?
Is his money Safe? If not, how do i convince him of that?
How do i get through to him that even though i have little to no experience in stock markets that what i'm saying is reality?

I think you definately need to be in tune with what is going on in order to make money in the markets in the current situation.
The markets will crash and they will crash badly but if you're prepared and you know what you are doing then you can make a fortune by short selling at the right time and buying inverse stocks for example.
These are the toughest times to be in the markets because they are heavily driven by news, "hope" and fear.
Just when you think the markets will fall off a cliff something happens in the news like for example a huge bailout package for europe which reverses the markets in an instance.
Or on the other hand when you think the markets are going to rally on and then the Greek president calls a surprise refurendum only to cancel it a couple of days later. Then a couple days later news reports comes out about Italys borrowing levels being sky high.
These kind of situations create extreme volatility in the markets to the upside and downside and so trading is a nightmare.
If he is doing well during these times then he obviously knows what he is doing, but even then it is extremely risky. The current markets will make the best of traders sweat.
I dont know when the big crash or crashes are coming because there are things that can happen to temporarily avoid the crash such as european central bank interference or another round of quantitative easing in America, but the markets will crash eventually.
I cant even advise where to put your money because I just don't know whats going to happen, it seems like no currency is safe, so perhaps gold is a good idea but yesterday it crashed with the markets.
The dollar is very strong at the moment but only because of the eurozone crisis.
These are very uncertain and troubling times and only the most skilled and experienced traders with luck on their side will come out of this better off.

Btw I'm not an expert lol

reply to post by jrmcleod


Simply put, I believe a long horizon diversified position will never lose "value", but its purchasing power will slowly be eroded.

For more active traders its hit or miss.

Maybe i should clarify. My partners father owns his own Roofing company and buys/sells shares through Barclays Stockbroker software as a personal investment fund. He isn't a stock broker, and i doubt he has any real significant information on how to succeed in this climate effectively.

My concern is more about his blinding ability to NOT see what is happening, his opinion is simply that "people will always buy things...there is no way the stock markets will collapse". He is adamant that his money is perfectly safe and that this is just a blip that will be over soon.

reply to post by jrmcleod




You should show him this video. It got my old man worried. I think when it comes from a trusted source like the beeb, it hits home a little more for some.

The Beeb have put up a Web of debt that might be useful for someone not understanding that France is in a precarious position.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Edit:

For clarity my partner and I started our main investments as the market was crashing last time and managed to turn a nice profit, we have now removed our original investment and left the profits, rise or fall it now makes little difference, but there is a chance it will make very good gains.

Originally posted by woodwardjnr
reply to post by jrmcleod

 

You should show him this video. It got my old man worried. I think when it comes from a trusted source like the beeb, it hits home a little more for some.

Strange you should mention this video because its this exact video that i showed him that created his response of "its just a blip, it'll sort out...people will always need to buy things, you worry to much, my money is safe".

I thought this video would have made him think twice...but no. I don't know if its ignorance on his behalf or he's simply brainwashed...

Either way I'd like to help him even consider the possibility, which hi isn't.

Originally posted by thoughtsfull
The Beeb have put up a Web of debt that might be useful for someone not understanding that France is in a precarious position.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Edit:

For clarity my partner and I started our main investments as the market was crashing last time and managed to turn a nice profit, we have now removed our original investment and left the profits, rise or fall it now makes little difference, but there is a chance it will make very good gains.

edit on 18/11/11 by thoughtsfull because: (no reason given)

So let me get this straight...

Greece GDP - 0.2 trillion
Greece Over sea's Debt Total - 0.4 trillion
Greece is on the verge of collapse

US GDP - 10.8 trillion
US Over sea's Debt Total - 10.9 trillion
US are fine?

UK GDP - 1.7 trillion
UK Over sea's Debt Total 7.8 trillion
UK are fine

Can someone please explain to me how Greece with twice as much over seas debt than its GDP can be so critical, yet the UK has nearly 5 times the GDP than its over sea's debt.

How is this working out?

UK citizen foreign debt per person 117,580 euros
US citizen foreign debt per person 35,156 euros
Italy citizen foreign debt per person 32,875 euros
Greece citizen foreign debt per person 38,073 euros
France citizen foreign debt per person 66,508 euros
Germany citizen foreign debt per person 50,659 euros
Japan citizen foreign debt per person 15,934 euros

I'm seriously confused. Look at the ratio of debt compared to the UK and all other countries listed on that BBC report. Why the hell is the UK not dead in the water? Something isn't right here

reply to post by jrmcleod


Obviously it all depends on particular investments. But as whole I believe hes correct.

Philosophically, every western nations citizens rely on success of the markets (401ks ect). And despite popular belief their governments will do all they can (which are mostly wrong moves but nonetheless) to prop up the markets. Day trading will result in wins or loses, and these loses mostly going to large net corpos. But long term positions will always be "safe" as long as that country is still on the map. The trouble is these investments are only "safe" because of inflation. So 100 dollars in 20 years might be 200 dollars but that might not cover a big mac at that point.

Point is inflation is going to be the driving force for many years to come. And historically hard assets unassigned to markets (physical gold, property ect) is how one beats inflation. But because of the govts "new" role as market makers, a diversified portfolio is just as good if not better.

i should clarify. exotic investments are in trouble but mom and pop stocks will be fine. theres no way around it.

reply to post by jrmcleod


It's very difficult, he's probably been around for a while and has seen recessions come and go and probably believes this will be like the ones before. I think many people are going to be in for a massive shock, but I can understand that you don't want to be sat there in 2 years time huddled around a fire telling him "I told you so".

reply to post by jrmcleod


I've racked my brains on how to explain it but am lacking the right words right now to explain why France is more at risk.. sorry about that.

Not an answer for your partners father but the one I use for myself is that we are in the midst of an economic war.. US/EU/China with the EU as the US and Chinas largest market it is also the others weakest link hence why it is the one under fire from all sides and why EU nations are at risk, all the while the UK is playing all the others against the middle.

Originally posted by woodwardjnr
reply to post by jrmcleod

 

It's very difficult, he's probably been around for a while and has seen recessions come and go and probably believes this will be like the ones before. I think many people are going to be in for a massive shock, but I can understand that you don't want to be sat there in 2 years time huddled around a fire telling him "I told you so".

Your indeed right, i dont want to be that guy who says that because if i am then it means i have failed to convince him of the truth...is the truth not worth convincing others of?

This is the problem that i face when i push for the truth to be told...its how i get that across thats the issue.

Personally, if i was in his shoes, i'd sell it all and buy gold. I'd install an underground safe that NO ONE knew about apart from me and my children where i'd store that gold and use it as an when needed.

reply to post by jrmcleod


This sounds like I am joking but I am not joking. If your father is set in his own ways, Then that's his decision. It's not that I don't understand, or that I am insensitive. You simply got to know when to hold um and when to fold um when it comes to the outcome that you have no controll over. Secondly. I would be candid and tell him that you have a genuine concern and why. Then if that isn't gonna work , tell you want your inheritance , or part of it that he plans on willing to you so you can take your own risks the way you see fit to, Its only money. S/f thx op

PS Maybe he is right??

Just tell him French banks have the biggest exposure to Greek debt.

two

reply to post by eldard


I don't mean to sound insensitive here, but IMHO, you've imparted your concern already, and he's rejected it, whether out of pride, ignorance or belief in his own abilities. If you truly care for him, then it's time to back off and show him some respect. There is nothing more insulting than someone meddling in your business, when they haven't been invited in to do so. If he loses his shirt, then so be it. It is, after all, his to profit or lose.