Lehman Weekend Redux?

Lehman Weekend Redux?

www.zerohedge.com

Just hitting the wires from Sky News:

Sky Sources: G20 ministers are preparing for Greek default

More as we get it.

(visit the link for the full news article)

So is this it finally? Greece is gonna default this weekend?

We shall see.

If Greece falls, they trigger at least 1 trillion in obligations. Big banks in Europe are heavily exposed to Greece. Those with the most to lose are France and Germany.

France is exposed at 57 billion to Greece.
Germany at 23.8 billion.
UK at 14.7 billion.
Portugal at 10.2 billion.
US at 8.7 billion.

And that is banks exposure. French banks are in big trouble, they'll need to find a bunch of money to save themselves... and even if they manage to do it, the speculators are gonna pound them probably to death.
More news connected to this :

German banks have $1 trillion + in hidden losses

Greece about to default on 1 trillion $ of obligations

Update :

* G20 now preparing itself for Greek default after October - Sky sources. Will be on Sky News imminently with more
* G20 sources: all efforts behind the scenes (by G20 members) are now going into recapitalising banks, preparing economies for default.
* G20 sources: default not expected until after Cannes G20 early November. Emergency funding should still keep Greece afloat thru October
* G20 sources: No suggestion Greek default need imply country leaving the euro
* G20 sources: @ Washington summit marked difference in attitude. Confident euro members edging closer to recapitalising banks, expanding EFSF

Looks like the inevitable is coming in about a month.

Update 2 : Don't worry, all will be fine!
Multi-trillion grand plan to save the eurozone is being prepared

Bunch of crooks. Let the euro die already.

What's interesting about all this... if they let Greece default and don't kick them out... that means it sets a precedent for Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and whoever else to default... which are ALL bigger than Greece.

Exposure to Ireland debt :
UK : 136 billion
Germany : 116 billion
US : 58.9 billion.

Exposure to Portugal debt :
Spain : 88.5 billion.
Germany : 38.9 billion.
France : 28.3 billion.

Exposure to Spain debt :
Germany : 177.9 billion.
France : 146.1 billion.
UK : 100.8 billion.

Exposure to Italy :
France : 410.2 billion.
Germany : 164.9 billion.
UK : 68.9 billion.

All will be fine! Don't worry!

More update :
Germany Demands "Managed" Greek Default And 50% Bond Haircuts In Exchange For Expanding EFSF, Peripheral "Firewall"

Back on July 21, the same day as the Greek bailout redux hit the tape, we speculated that the biggest weakness in the Second Greek Bailout is that the EFSF would have to be expanded to well over the current E440 billion (which even at its current size has not been fully ratified in Europe, and based on recent events may not be implemented until 2012 thanks to Slovenia and Finland), or about E1.5 trillion (and possibly as much as E3.5 trillion). The reason this is a "problem" is that it would have to come exclusively at the expense of Germany which would have to pledge anywhere between 50% and 133% of its GDP (as France would have long since been downgraded and hence unable to participate in the EFSF at a AAA rating). We also assumed that the debt rollover with a 21% haircut would not be an issue as it should have been a formality: on this we were fataly wrong - the debt rollover plan has imploded and means that the entire Greek bailout has collapsed as some had expected. And now that it is clear that contagion is threatening to sweep through the core, it is back to Germany to prevent the gangrene, no longer contagion, from advancing beyond the PIIGS. However, in order to prevent a full out revolution, Germany's economic elite has said it would agree to an EFSF expansion and hence installation of European firewall, but at a price: a "controlled" default by Greece and 50% haircuts for private bondholders (as German banks have long since offloaded their Greek bonds).

This means that "Lehman" is indeed here: just like back in 2008 Paulson et al thought they coud contain the adverse effects of a Lehman bankruptcy, while the financial system ground to a halt 4 days later when money market funds broke the buck, so now Greece is somehow expected to remain in the eurozone even as it files bankruptcy.

www.zerohedge.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Finally the moment we all have been waiting for.....

Drum roll please!

This could be the reason that the commodity markets were sinking so fast on thursday and friday. Someone was liquidating and moving to cash in preparation I'm thinking. This spells bad news for the markets come monday if this does in fact happen.

Nice pickup just saw this on ZH as well. We all know its coming but if they default the markets opening tomorrow will be vicious. I saw another article, you may have highlighted this Vitchilo, whereby Germany still have war reparations to Greece. This explains a bit of what's really going on behind the scenes.

When Papandreous suddenly cancelled his US trip last week you know something is up.

brill

Now we see what is real and what is fear mongering.

Originally posted by loam
Now we see what is real and what is fear mongering.

edit on 24-9-2011 by loam because: (no reason given)

Well said. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to what impact a default would have, tons of speculation but as you say we will see what is real.

brill

Can they just default? We've heard this every day for the last two freaking years. I am so sick of hearing it, crap or get off the pot already. I might need to get on that thing!

It just might be time to buy that Greek Island I've had my eyes on !

Yasu !!

Meh...just call Bernake. He can print that in no time flat.

Seriously though, I'm not sure if this is the time they default or not. But it will happen sooner rather than later. You can not continue to throw more and more money at a growing debt without changing what caused the debt in the first place. The problem of course is that no politician, including in the US, wants to tell the masses everything that has to be removed from the system in order to make the system sound again.

This is the stuff that starts revolutions and rioting. Once one western nation goes belly up, I believe you will see a rapid domino effect take place globally. I am not doom and gloom, it's actually rather logical. You can not remove the pieces of a pyramid without the other pieces starting to wobble.

The fact is that people everywhere are getting angrier and angrier. The more weaknesses that are exposed, the more the veil is lifted, and the more people become aware of the entire scheme. Poverty levels, globally, are rising. Wealth, globally, is declining. The middle class, the bulk, is feeling the pressures of being squeezed by both sides. It only takes so much pressure before it explodes. Just my opinion of course.

One final thought: rapid is not overnight. Some people on ATS will have you think that the entire population is going to implode all at once. A chain reaction is not the same thing as simply pulling the plug.

Meh, could be worse, could be Germany defaulting then we really would all be ****ed

reply to post by Johnze


You are right, and if Germany defaults so does the EU. Still, I am kind of concerned how this will affect Germany's seemingly thriving economy given the fact that they are the second largest contributor to Greece's bailout scheme after France? I am fairly certain both countries are sweating bullets at the very possibility of receiving no returns on their investments in Greece. This could be quite serious to Germany if default is not staved off or the damage cannot be properly mitigated.

I am just awestruck that a little country's financial woes like Greece could potentially wreck so much havoc on the global economy? We should keep an eye on what is taking place this weekend at the central banks in Europe and more or less the world, because if this is Lehman Brother's Redux as stated with the thread title? There is going to be a lot of bankers and bureaucrats burning the midnight oil. Lets see what happens?

Relax, folks. It is only money when default happens. Life still goes on.

Those nations whom are rich in human capital and mineral resources should not default as they have the means to repay any debts made, such as US. As it didn't default, much thanks to the persevering President Obama and a few enlightened congressmen whom voted not to, trust in US and its financial systems was returned in kind, thus the flow of hoarded funds into US, even gold being sold in exchange for US dollars, and its economy chugging along, slowly, but at least surely and will gain momentumn over time, so long as US politicians be wise to circulate wealth amongst the citizenery, and not to the hoarding eltites.

Those nations that cannot afford to pay sovereign debts, best be allowed to default, for there will be nothing left for the citizens after servicing debts from whatever economy that's left, whom had not asked for such loans, but only seeking succor for their daily lives to their leaders whom were elected to intelligently chose the right options of alleviate sufferings, not simply just borrow money to solve today and hope tomorrow never comes.

The banking systems employed by European banks, with some american ones, were atrocious in their conduct and supervision, or rather, the lack of it. Now they have to pay the price for their unconscionable greedy attempt to use debts as a means to profit, enslaving mankind in that process, by offering cheap and temptacious overly generous to anyone, even guttersnipes whom no sane laymen would even give a dollar to.

Governments are not responsible for the failure of capitalist enterprises. Governments can only set up regulations, lay the environment for ALL business to live by.

Capitalists such as the banking industry themselves alone are responsible for their own success or failures by the risks or the lack of it that they took in order to survive. No one pointed a gun at them to offer loans or to buy bonds without intelligent due diligence. Caveat Emptor applies in the capitalist marketplace, for both entreprise owners and consumers parties.

Thus, there is no other to blame in the failures except those involved - enterprise owners, consumers, including politicians who became either of such parties.

The borrowed money didn't disappear into thin air. It only went into others pockets and belongs to them through its circulation within economies as payments served for contractual obligations, and now in such times, being hoarded up.

The losers are the banks and those who bought european sovereign bonds. Their monies now belongs to others rightfully under economic terms. The losers made their gamble, in the belief that they can get those money back with higher returns. But in the marketplace, anything can happen, more so if one had not done their homework carefully. The bankers and the politicians most certainly didnt.

Now, they will have to pay the price of losing those monies, be held accountable for it, and not the sovereign people made to pay the price for them. Capitalism in its narrowest and simpliest defination had always been to ' privatise profits but socialise costs'. It is still acceptable as a capitalist make honest profits from society who pays for their needs to be met.

But hell if it becomes 'privatise profits but socialise debts'. Society is not responsible for the failures of capitalist enterprises. Society's leaders will be strung up and hung if that is the policy to be enforced upon the masses.

Sorry guys/girls , no default happening, , lets all move onto to next fear topic at hand.

Whether it is Greece that causes the collapse or another EU country, it will still happen.

The multiculturalism push has caused many EU countries to borrow heavily to pay for the social programs involved. Spain, Italy and France have much more unsecured debt that Greece, and it's all coming due soon.

All they are doing is putting it off.

It's coming, no way to avoid it. The numbers are just too big.