Canary Islands El Hierro seismic swarm breaches 700 events

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e871c10f3024.jpg[/atsimg]

"Recently El Hierro volcano of the Canary Islands has been experiencing a seismic swarm beneath it, which as of yesterday reached to over 700 events."

"If we look at these earthquakes in two plots here we can see the clustering of these earthquakes is mainly confined to an oval area at 10 km depth. El Hierro is a broadly basaltic volcano which might have been active in 1793 although this is uncertain."

A major event in the canary islands could have huge implications for the east coast of the U.S the west coast of africa and/or europe . If there is a volcanic eruption and half the island falls into the sea, a tsunami could be generated. Something to keep an eye on.

theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com...

This is extremely disturbing, as a landslide on the island of La Palma could cause a 10-25m tsunami that would devastate the east coast of the US. I've heard about this years ago, and since seeing this OP I was reminded of just how vulnerable we are.


Atlantic Ocean Tsunami

This link is to the Cumbre Vieja Volcano PDF: wet.kuleuven.be... embedded in the article.

ETA: S&F

How "recently"? As in 700 quakes over a year? 5 years? A month? Shorter? I think that is important information to be brought up here.

Lets hope this is normal... Would be really bad for large part of the world if the one at lanzarote goes off, as it could create tsunamis all over western Europe, Africa and America.

Here is a link to a blog (I know they aren't normally good sources, but this one backs up what it has to say with photographs and links to peer-reviewed science.)

From the blog:

Day et al. (1999) and Ward and Day (2001) hypothesize that during a future unascertained eruption, the western half of the Cumbre Vieja – approximately 500 km3 (5 x 1011 m3) with an estimated mass 1.5 x 1015 kg – will catastrophically fail in a massive gravitational landslide and enter the Atlantic Ocean generating a so called “mega-tsunami.”

The debris will continue to travel, as a debris flow, along the ocean floor. Computer modelling indicates that the resulting initial wave may attain a local amplitude (height) in excess of 600 metres (1,969 ft) and an initial peak to peak height that approximates to 2 kilometres (1 mi), and travel at about 1,000 kilometres per hour (621 mph) (approximately the speed of a jet aircraft), inundating the African coast in about 1 hour, the southern coast of England in about 3.5 hours, and the eastern seaboard of North America in about 6 hours, by which time the initial wave would have subsided into a succession of smaller ones each about 30 metres (98 ft) to 60 metres (197 ft) high. These may surge to several hundred metres in height and be several kilometres apart but retaining their original speed. The models of Day et al. and Ward and Day suggest that it could inundate up to 25 kilometres (16 mi) inland.

Originally posted by OldCorp
Here is a link to a blog (

It's a good blog, it speaks the truth. The best bit is the last bit which describes just how much BS the mega tsunami theory actually is and that Ward/Day/Macguire who authored the paper you originally linked have been thoroughly debunked by the scientific community. It certainly does not back up their paper.
Here is the original link.... www.lapalma-tsunami.com...

Three scientists say that half of La Palma will fall into the sea and cause a tsunami that will wipe out much of the population of the eastern seaboard of the USA.
They are wrong.
La Palma will not slide into the sea.
Even if it did, it wouldn’t cause a tsunami that would reach the USAWhy are they saying it will?
Almost certainly to obtain funding for their own research projects.

The worlds scientific experts have shown the “research” by Ward/Day/McGuire to be incorrect, unproven and wildly exaggerated both in the Horizon program and subsequent interviews. It is not based on scientific facts.

It's actually just a short snippet of the end part of the blog. It's a good read.

Originally posted by kalunom
How "recently"? As in 700 quakes over a year? 5 years? A month? Shorter? I think that is important information to be brought up here.

Someone recently posted something about it and I think it was Phage,.
regardless it was at like 250 a week ago

Originally posted by pazcat

Originally posted by OldCorp
Here is a link to a blog (

It's a good blog, it speaks the truth. The best bit is the last bit which describes just how much BS the mega tsunami theory actually is and that Ward/Day/Macguire who authored the paper you originally linked have been thoroughly debunked by the scientific community.

Three scientists say that half of La Palma will fall into the sea and cause a tsunami that will wipe out much of the population of the eastern seaboard of the USA.
They are wrong.
La Palma will not slide into the sea.
Even if it did, it wouldn’t cause a tsunami that would reach the USAWhy are they saying it will?
Almost certainly to obtain funding for their own research projects.

The worlds scientific experts have shown the “research” by Ward/Day/McGuire to be incorrect, unproven and wildly exaggerated both in the Horizon program and subsequent interviews. It is not based on scientific facts.

IDK about that. Did you watch the video too? When I saw the host walking through the fault line it was patently obvious that the side of the mountain is indeed sliding down into the sea. If it collapses all at once, a tsunami (maybe not a "Mega-tsunami") would be generated.

It's happened before: "Two survivors of a Mega-tsunami tell their stories of the day the 1/2km high wave hit Lituya Bay."


Scientists disagree ALL of the time. I'd rather err on the side of caution. BTW, I starred your post for bringing out the other side of the argument. I have to admit that I didn't read down that far.

This is worrying, perhaps the computer models are not completely accurate, but then until something like this happens, all we have are educated guesses, based on computer models and evidence left from previous occurances.

Im on the south coast, 80ft above sea level, (so sat nav tells me) the Isle of wight would hopefully give my area some protection,

How dreadful this could be in a worst case senario situation.

reply to post by kalunom


The first time I saw a quote from (I suppose) that site I thought the same thing, saying that there have been more than 700 events is meaningless without a time frame.

I think that event count started on 2011-01-01, I will have look at it.

reply to post by OldCorp


From what I have read, the idea of a megatsunami caused by a landslide comes from that event, but that even only caused a local megatsunami; the wave was very high because it was a closed area, when it reached the ocean it spread and lost energy, that's why we never heard about a megatsunami in the Pacific ocean in 1958.

PS: these seismic events are not in La Palma, they are on a different island, the one just south of La Palma, and, obviously, it's a different volcano.

Originally posted by BadBoYeed
A major event in the canary islands could have huge implications for the east coast of the U.S the west coast of africa and/or europe . If there is a volcanic eruption and half the island falls into the sea, a tsunami could be generated. Something to keep an eye on.

Not to overstate the obvious, but for anyone contemplating this possibility, just keep in mind that you are talking about two separate islands. The microswarm is not happening on La Palma island, where the danger of the collapse is. It is happening on El Hierro island, which is about 40 miles from La Palma island and separated by a lot of ocean.

The microswarm could mean renewed magma intrusion below El Hierro island, but even so, I fail to see how an eruption on El Hierro would affect La Palma much, if at all.

But who knows, maybe the entire Canary Islands are one mega supervolcano with just the tips of the caldera rim showing above water (the islands). And it's getting ready to blow...

/sensationalism

Originally posted by ArMaP
reply to post by OldCorp

 

From what I have read, the idea of a megatsunami caused by a landslide comes from that event, but that even only caused a local megatsunami; the wave was very high because it was a closed area, when it reached the ocean it spread and lost energy, that's why we never heard about a megatsunami in the Pacific ocean in 1958.

PS: these seismic events are not in La Palma, they are on a different island, the one just south of La Palma, and, obviously, it's a different volcano.

I understand that the two islands are separated by about 100 miles; but aren't they both part of the same fault line? Isn't it possible for an EQ or eruption on one island to cause a chain reaction on another island along the same fault?

Also, the way I understand it, the energy of a tsunami is not dissipated by the distance a wave has to travel, but is mitigated by any undersea obstacles the wave may encounter on the journey: It is this function that caused so many deaths in Sri Lanka after the Boxing Day Indonesian EQ which occurred thousands of miles away.

If I'm wrong, please correct me.

I just noticed my last line is part of your signature.

Originally posted by OldCorp
I understand that the two islands are separated by about 100 miles; but aren't they both part of the same fault line? Isn't it possible for an EQ or eruption on one island to cause a chain reaction on another island along the same fault?

I don't remember any case in which an earthquake triggered a larger one 100 miles away, but I think it's possible, even if they aren't in the same fault line (I don't think they are but I don't really know).

Also, the way I understand it, the energy of a tsunami is not dissipated by the distance a wave has to travel, but is mitigated by any undersea obstacles the wave may encounter on the journey: It is this function that caused so many deaths in Sri Lanka after the Boxing Day Indonesian EQ which occurred thousands of miles away.

That's why I said that in connection to the Lituya Bay tsunami; that tsunami was huge inside the bay, when it reached the open sea, free from the land's boundaries, it spread to a wider wave and, obviously, that size of the and corresponding energy was reduced.

If I'm wrong, please correct me.

I just noticed my last line is part of your signature.

You know what they say about great minds.

The Spanish National Geographic Institute site now has a map of the recent earthquakes on that island, here.

They also have the possibility of searching for all earthquakes in a specific area, and in the area between coordinates 27.6 W, 18.2 S and 27.9 W, 17.8 S, it shows a list with 1,021 events since January 1, 2011.

PS: the search page is here, but the site is in Spanish (and it's not working at the moment, I think I broke it ).

Edit: now is working.

Originally posted by ArMaP
You know what they say about great minds.

They turn to mush in one's old age?

(Self-deprecating humor there... Sometimes I feel as though I'm wading through hip deep mental mud.)

Originally posted by OldCorp
...
IDK about that. Did you watch the video too? When I saw the host walking through the fault line it was patently obvious that the side of the mountain is indeed sliding down into the sea. If it collapses all at once, a tsunami (maybe not a "Mega-tsunami") would be generated....
...
Scientists disagree ALL of the time. I'd rather err on the side of caution. BTW, I starred your post for bringing out the other side of the argument. I have to admit that I didn't read down that far...

Star for you as well, and the Discovery Channel (?) ran the La Palma back when I had
cable and curly wool fer hair.
I watched the offering twice before, and was uncomfortably intrigued by the magnitude of
wave height in the experimental tank. However, what we're talking about happening in
Alaska was almost an identical dynamic: part of a mountain emptying into something
shaped like a rectangular tube, or fjord. The water had nowhere to go other than one
direction. My only hopeful skepticism about the potential damage is distance and area.
Following the 6dB rule, we're probably looking at a greatly decreased wave size based
on the original water displacement, propogated over a much larger area of the ocean.
I'm an old sound fan, but air's a fluid too...

None the less trooper, I'm on your side like the flip side of an old shampoo commercial:
"The closer we be, the uglier she looks."
Can anybody reliably describe the stratification of that volcano's topology? La Palma
looked like the water slide was pretty darn steep if/ when things were to bust loose.

reply to post by ArMaP

The Alaska landslide is not the only source.
The Hawaiian Islands experienced enormous landslides in the past. Computer models show that the slides could have produced Pacific wide waves, reaching California with heights of 70 meters. There is evidence on the island of Lanai that the waves could have affected elevations as much as 300 meters above sea level.

cat.inist.fr...

reply to post by BadBoYeed

Site that made me feel a bit better about the threat, along with the idea that I would have 6 hours, if notified at the time of an eruption. www.drgeorgepc.com...
have not verified any info or credentials yet, will update if available


casual review looks great, not verified but if his page is true then; he wrote more than one book, he wrote most of the rules

The threat of mega tsunami generation from collapses of oceanic island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated. No mega tsunamis can be expected - even if the lateral collapses of Cumbre Vieja in LaPalma and Kilauea, in Hawaii island occur, as postulated. Greater source dimensions and longer wave periods are required to generate tsunami waves that can have significant, far field effects.

Hmmm - Frightening in my book. Would post the link to google earth but being the weekend here on the dial up :-( not possible. Took a very close look on Friday - Even Google Earth gave me serious vertigo looking at the massive gorge. Something that huge with all these little shakes going on even at a distance (come on a 100 mile is not that far) has got to be loosening things up a bit. Add some magma - mmm - and a larger quake. I don't think I am the only one here with a whole lot of worry. The main question here is - if/when the flank of LaPama lets loose, will it trigger a massive Tsunami? I have had a look at some of the information pertaining to such an even - while there are many theories -, I guess it would depend on the event. - Surely with a major quake/eruption/crash of flank/etal (all of which are completely possible here) we could have a major event.... --