Obama approval drops in Liberal states but not Conservative states

Many of you will not find my findings interesting if that should be the case, no problem. For those of us who are truly interested in politics, specifically presidential elections and polling, then this is the thread for you.

I will provide you with all the resources you need to do searches for yourself should you not trust my information. But I promise all of it is legitimate.

2008 Presidential General Election Results
Obama approval ratings by state

United States of America
2008 Results: 53%
2010 Approval: 47%
Change: -6%

Using the difference between the 2008 Presidential Election Results for President Obama and his 2010 average approval rating we get a change of -6%. Using this -6% as the base figure I will compare each states’ trend in relation to the US national trend which is -6%. What this will show is the states that are more supportive of Obama since 2008 election and the states which are less supportive of Obama since the 2008 election and by what margins. The results may surprise you.

Alabama: +8%
Alaska: +7%
Arizona: +1%
Arkansas: +6%
California: 0%
Colorado: -3%
Connecticut: -1%
Delaware: 0%
District of Columbia: -2%
Florida: +1%
Georgia: +5%
Hawaii: 0%
Idaho: +2%
Illinois: -3%
Indiana: 0%
Iowa: 0%
Kansas: +3%
Kentucky: +4%
Louisiana: +9%
Maine: -6%
Maryland: +2%
Massachusetts: -1%
Michigan: -2%
Minnesota: 0%
Mississippi: +10%
Missouri: -2%
Montana: -2%
Nebraska: +9%
Nevada: -2%
New Hampshire: -7%
New Jersey: 0%
New Mexico: -2%
New York: 0%
North Carolina: +3%
North Dakota: +2%
Ohio: +2%
Oklahoma: +9%
Oregon: -3%
Pennsylvania: -2%
Rhode Island: -2%
South Carolina: +5%
South Dakota: +4%
Tennessee: +5%
Texas: +7%
Utah: +6%
Vermont: -8%
Virginia: 0%
Washington: -1%
West Virginia: -4%
Wisconsin: -2%
Wyoming: +1%

If by this point you still do not understand how I came to these conclusions and what it means please read the explanation below, if you understand then move on.

*What I did was take Obama’s 2008 election results and his 2010 average approval rating then found the change, which was -6%. I then did the same thing for each state, I found its 2008 election result for Obama then its 2010 average approval rating for Obama and found the change. Once I found the change I then found the difference of the states’ change by comparing it to the nation’s change. Let’s use Arkansas for an example:

In 2008 Obama won 39% in the election in Arkansas. His 2010 average approval rating in Arkansas was 39%. That is a change of 0%. Since the nation changed -6% and Arkansas changed 0% that means Arkansas is 6 points higher than the national change. That means Obama actually has a lower drop in support than the nation at-large in this state.*

What can we conclude from these findings? We can conclude that Obama has lost more support among the Democratic states, especially upper New England, than he has among the nation at-large while his drop in support in the South has not been as bad or has even seen more support. So why are the most liberal states dropping their support of Obama rapidly while the most conservative states have barely dropped support if not gained support? That is a very difficult question and I do not have the answer.

I found it very interesting to say the least.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/eff791966988.png[/atsimg]

What do you think?

10 States with Obama's largest drop in support

1. Vermont
2. New Hampshire
3. Maine
4. West Virginia
5. Oregon
6. Illinois
7. Colorado
8. Wisconsin
9. Rhode Island
10. Pennsylvania

10 States with Obama's least drop in support/his gain in support

1. Mississippi
2. Louisiana
3. Nebraska
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
6. Alaska
7. Texas
8. Arkansas
9. Utah
10. Georgia

Shouldn't it be reverse? I mean the last time I checked the Tea Partiers have disagreements with POTUS

Nicely done!

An interesting side bar might be an extrapolation of unemployment figures to see if there is a direct correlation.

S+F

I was always TERRIBLE at statistics, so I can't give you good feedback on whether your method works. I think that instead of saying he has "gained" in +% states, it is more accurate to say it's a comparison of each state to the national average.

I *think*.

It did surprise me, though, to see how many states there were where his popularity didn't change (or improved). It's easy to forget that national averages are one thing - but the elections are still state-by-state.

I would like to see something that shows the states he carried / didn't carry, and which states he still has enough votes to carry.

BUT - the problem with polls is, it's the difference between who picked up their phone when the pollster called versus who will drive to the polls on that day & stand in line. Not necessarily the same people!

Is it perhaps because that those more conservative states already had low approval ratings so there wasn't as much to drop while the liberal states who had higher support had alot more ground to give?

Seems like a logical reason to me unless I am not reading your post correctly.

reply to post by starwarsisreal

All the people I know who voted for Obama are greatly disappointed. He got the vote of liberals by promising a liberal agenda. He has not delivered.

He appears to conservatives as they expected. They had no hope for his presidency.

My question is if liberals think Obama is more conservative than liberal, why do conservatives think he is socialist?

I still don't know how Obama got elected president... I run across about 100 people per day and not 1 ever admitted voting for him.

reply to post by kro32


That was also what I was considering as the possible explanation as well. Perhaps Obama's floor in many of the Conservative states is about where he scored on election night. But the problem with that is he did amazingly well in many states compared to Kerry even if he lost considerably. But what explains those conservative states where support for Obama has gone up in total percentages? You would think after the popular uprising known as the Tea Party occurred his support in these Southern and Plains states would fall but they haven't, they have even gained. Obama is even doing better against the Republicans in some of these states too.

Take Mitt Romney v. Barack Obama in 2012, Obama performs better against the Republican in Southern and Plains states than he did in 2008 while Romney would perform better against Obama in the Northeast and a few other states than McCain did.

Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012

What it boils down to is he isnt going to do it again.

Originally posted by TerryMcGuire
reply to post by starwarsisreal

 

All the people I know who voted for Obama are greatly disappointed. He got the vote of liberals by promising a liberal agenda. He has not delivered.

He appears to conservatives as they expected. They had no hope for his presidency.

My question is if liberals think Obama is more conservative than liberal, why do conservatives think he is socialist?

Obama gave the impression that entitlements would continue and increase. That turned off the conservative voters and excited the more liberal voters.

Just my humble opinion.

No one likes to talk about race. If you admit there ARE different races, then you are racist, right?

As a white American who didn't like Obama during his campaign because it seemed empty and didn't vote for him, my heart still soared when he was elected. We did it! We elected a black president, someone from humble origins! Wow!

He IS the personification of the American ideal that anyone from any background can do anything. No matter what his policies or his legacy, that is one thing that must be admitted. We have come so far from our slave legacy, and that makes me proud.

However, all the people who marched to polls to vote for him for that reason, are not going to do so a second time. In the end, he hasn't made anyone very happy. I would love to see those huge numbers of minorities have a more vested interest in what happens in this country, pay more attention. I would love to see someone voting besides white retirees.

But in this election, I don't think they're going to. They elected a black man, and it turns out he was STILL just another Ivy League Elitist. So I don't think they're going to bother again, and I think Obama is done, for that reason alone.

reply to post by Misoir


Why did you leave the State of Michigan out?

Originally posted by beezzer

Obama gave the impression that entitlements would continue and increase. That turned off the conservative voters and excited the more liberal voters.

Just my humble opinion.

He brilliantly left his rhetoric open to a variety of interpretations. Everyone heard what they wanted to hear. I remember thinking, "am I the only person who has no idea what he was trying to SAY?" every time I heard him talk. That was on purpose.

It is brilliant for getting elected by a pretty dumb populace. He had our number. It's not so good for a successful presidency. We can't even fight about whether he delivered on his campaign promises, because when we look back, we don't know what he promised.

And that's because he didn't promise anything. He didn't say anything. He just looked good and sounded good, and he used GREAT key words, without ever defining what that meant to HIM. He let everyone define those words for themselves - and now, everyone is disappointed.

Honestly, I'm not sure he ever thought past election night before it happened. Remember his whole first year it was like he couldn't stop campaigning and start president-ing?

reply to post by DIDtm


My bad. I corrected it, Michigan is now on the list.

reply to post by beezzer


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9900ceaf9bc7.png[/atsimg]
(Dark = High unemployment, Light = Low unemployment)

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/eff791966988.png[/atsimg]

What the heck?! I spent all that time doing research then I find this!

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

*Serious FACEPALM*

reply to post by beezzer

Obama gave the impression that entitlements would continue and increase. That turned off the conservative voters and excited the more liberal voters.

Precisely. Conservative voters do not like "entitlements" because they symbolize lazy people getting something for nothing. Yes?
Liberals I can tell you, understand " entitlements " as sharing. To them it is supporting the disadvantaged, giving them a leg up from unfortunate circumstances in order for them to care for themselves.

I can't argue for or against either position because both positions, when accepted as " correct belief " lead the individuals off into diametrically opposed growth patterns determined by rational and logical decisions based on those beliefs. To ask a conservative or liberal to "see the light of day " or to change the way they understand any of these core beliefs is not to just ask them to see this one thing differently, but rather is a demand that they not just change their minds but out right dismantle their entire selves and build their self identity all over again. This kind of demand can almost only be reacted to through defensiveness, which of course is the great wall of china around any change.

This kind of change cannot take place across the sound bite airwaves of the mass media or the political structure as we know it. It can only be approached effectively through close and personal interaction.

There were many reasons to vote for Obama. He has betrayed them all. To my mind, he does the nation a disservice in running for a second term. His only positive message can be more of me and my failed promises while conservatives have a wide range of potential platforms ranging from our candidate is better, to Obama is the destroyer of freedom and the son of Satan. Think he should announce his single term presidency now and open the political debate to a wider spectrum of thought.


.

reply to post by Misoir


I was about to say, "Hey, you might really like this website..." You found it anyway.

Nate Silver (the guy who runs that blog) is pretty spot on in taking poll numbers and predicting the outcome of elections based on multiple polls. Example: "Gallup shows support for candidate X" whereas Mr. Silver will take polling results from say...Gallup and the Des Moines Register and a half dozen other sites.

In addition to the strong top-line results, Ms. Bachmann had the best favorability ratings of any candidate. And she was the second choice of 18 percent of voters, versus 12 percent for Mr. Pawlenty and 10 percent for Mr. Romney. I would consider her the favorite to win the Iowa caucuses and a legitimate contender to win the Republican nomination.

As for your speculation, it could simply prove that Obama is just as centrist as the far left has accused him of being. Conservatives/moderates see this in his policies and like him more or simply dislike him less. While liberals find further disdain for him as he's not the person they thought they were electing.

I love your number crunching none-the-less.

reply to post by Misoir


Nice try but you miss the point. We do not have one election for President. We have 51 elections. The "spread" of 53% to 47% nationally means nothing. We need to know his approval number NOW in each state compared to his percentage of the vote in each state in 2008.

If he won a sample state in 2008 by 5 or 6 points but has lost 8 or 9 points in that state THEN that state flips in the Electoral College in 2012! It doesn't matter at all if he carries Massachusetts by 6 instead of 10 he still gets the 13 electoral votes for Massachusetts.

Compare his loss in the swing states to the spread in each state in 2008. Here's where 2012 will be decided.
Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri.

The MSM is so in bed with the Barry Soetoro crowd that average US voter has no choice but to look elsewhere for their news. Although this makes me sad, I know that he's gonna' lose by the widest margin ever. As bad as Bush was, this guy's ten times worse. The only supporters he has are either feeding at the public trough, or hoping for a socialist utopia, neither of which have enough to re-elect him.