Why China Will NOT Surpass the United States

You hear it all the time: China is poised to pass the United States as the largest economy in 20 years. However, I do not believe that this is going to happen. I think the US has a long time before anyone ever surpasses them, and it may never happen since globalization is becoming more and more prevalent. Here is why:

China currently has 1.3 billion people. The US has around 300 million. However, the disparity in population is not as great as it may seem. China's 1 child law means that China will only shrink. And they will shrink dramatically. This law came into effect in 1979. That means that in 20 years, the YOUNGEST of the people that could have been born before it was illegal to have two children will be 51. In 40 years, it will be 71 (which is around the age of their average life span). That means around 2051 China will have approximately 650 million people (1/2 is HIGHER than China's ACTUAL growth rate, and they are losing people due to immigration; not gaining people. The United States, based on its average growth rate would stay about the same, but the immigration rate provides an increase in the total population. Meaning, we will have closed the gap in terms of population size. What does this mean? China will not be able to sustain the amount of production they are currently putting out because a vast amount of their work force will shrink dramatically.

Isn't the US going through the same problem? Yes, but as everyone knows there is a huge untapped work force, that is likely to see reform so as to tap it: Immigrants. Immigration reform is inevitable, its all about when it will happen. Does it get passed through Obama? I don't know. But it will get passed within the next 20 years. Thereby making illegal immigrants legal, and allowing more people into the country per year. Thus, renewing the baby boomer work force.

Now, lets go further. China is renowned for its political corruption and poor income per capita. In otherwords, even if China could get that strong, the corrupt would not allow it to happen, because they'd be required to give money to the poor in order to fix their current standard of living. That will not happen within the next 20 years. Which is another reason China will implode.

Finally, even if that were to happen, China depends too much on the United States businesses for their jobs. Also, the US is the consumer. So, lets say China decided to improve minimum wage to a level that was unacceptably high for Walmart because Walmart starts losing profits due to less US consumption of their goods. Walmart would simply move their labor force to another cheaper country.

It is for these reasons (dramatically shrinking population; political corruption; and dependence on US corporations) that I just don't buy that China will surpass the United States any time in the near future.

reply to post by Ryanp5555


You're not taking into account the fact that the US is in a downward spiral that no one sees stopping any time soon..
The US is living on borrowed time as far as the economy is concerned..
The derivatives bubble is yet to burst and that will be the end IMO..

Yes China will suffer from a US demise but it will recover, unlike the US..

Hmm keeping my reply sort and sweet, Americans are a bit out off touch with the world at the mo...China seem to have thiers heads screwed on

reply to post by Ryanp5555


You know, to prove your entire theory wrong basically all that has to be done is have China change it's 1 child law around, right?

Glad you thought this through.

reply to post by backinblack


I disagree that the US economy is in a downward spiral. The US economy has been recovering since last year. Since December, there have been significant improvements the economy, including the employment rate getting better and better each month (faster than expected too). If you are talking about the US National Debt, then yes, that is on a downward spiral. However, that can be fixed by cutting spending. This is something the government has recognized. Although I agree with the Republicans that it needs to be done at a larger extent than this administration is letting up.

I will also agree that there are certain areas that are going to be down for probably the next decade. Actually, only one area I'd say will be down for that long: the housing market. But, if you take away the people walking away from mortgages because their houses were bought for more than they are currently worth, than you would actually see an increase in the amount of housing be bought.

So, in sum, while the housing market sucks, America is spending more, there are more jobs available, and the economy has been improving. The debt needs to be cut and IMO I believe America needs to reform its immigration policy in order to make up for the decreasing native population and a renewal of the workforce over the next 15 years.

Originally posted by Lionhearte
reply to post by Ryanp5555

 

You know, to prove your entire theory wrong all that has to be done is have China change it's 1 child law around, right?

Glad you thought this through.

Yeah, then you'd still be confronted with the corrupt which makes it impossible for China to ever experience the growth necessary to move itself into a "rich" nation via average income and standard of living; and the problem that they depend far too much on US Corporate outsourced jobs. Those two are the strongest reasons. The 1 child law is just another reason. The first two have a tension that can't change. If they want to improve their standard of living then good bye jobs. If they don't improve their standard of living they'll never be the ACTUAL strongest economy.

reply to post by Ryanp5555


You are dreaming..
Employment is not getting better..
More people are loosing their benefits and thus are not counted as unemployed..
The Government is also spending more by employing more people which is only an added cost..
Yes the housing market is screwed and quantative easing will drive up inflation while the $$$ continues to tumble..

And again, the derivatives bubble is a time bomb waiting to explode..

Theres several issues here... For one, China's "One-Child Policy" does not shrink its population. It does cause a huge rift and create a disproportionate gender ratio and that's about it. China's population is still growing at a rate similar to what happens in heavily industrialized and modernized states. Once China's exports start to drastically stop and decline then you may see the population decline. Also I do not necessarily believe China will surpass us but they're close. And if we tank (The USA) they will tank as well. They are completely invested in us to the point were it is vital that our economy functions properly in order for them to survive. Also, most of China lives in utter desparety and poor conditions. Only a fractional percent of their country is wealthy (Or by American standards, "Middle-Class") this will also be a detriment to them surpassing us. Another fact your not taking into account is China is heavily dependent on post-soviet countries (i.e. Russia, Eastern-Europe, etc..) All these factors combined mean they would most likely not allow it. As we continue to devalue the dollar the Chinese Yuan will continue to go up in value until we collapse and then its all over.... If you ask me, South America has a way higher chance of surpassing us then China...

Just my two cents...

reply to post by Ryanp5555


It is unfortunate, but your simplistic post shows in part why you are wrong. It is also clear you don't work in the business world and maybe you don't read the labels on the things you buy. China will surpass the U.S. within the next 3 years and that's a fact as clearly demonstrated by economists.

There are more Chinese students in college studying engineering than there are American college students studying everything combined. China manufacturers most goods we in the U.S. use. American literacy rates are falling and the U.S. has lost over 60,000 factories in the past decade alone.

Meanwhile, while you say the Chinese system is rife with corruption, I counter that the U.S. political system is rife with corruption and filled with religious zealots who think the world is 6 thousand years old. We are the DUMBEST "idustrialized" nation on earth. Our people are unable to think critically and value big business and war over anything else. In America, people come dead last unless you are wealthy. Fall through the cracks in the U.S. and society discards you. We are also a nation filled with police forces more militarized than the police force of any other supposedly western nation.

As a nation we are so heartless and inefficient that we spend twice as much per capita on healthcare, yet our national outcomes are far worse.

America is already a dead dream as most whistle past the graveyard and avoid looking at the homeless veterans that line our off ramps. Europeans understandably think America has gone insance as we life up idiot opportunists like Palin and see Sharia around every corner.

We have allowed the courts to put big business firmly in control of EVERYTHING. We are a rotting corpse of a country where half the population loathes the other half.

Originally posted by backinblack
reply to post by Ryanp5555

 

You are dreaming..
Employment is not getting better..
More people are loosing their benefits and thus are not counted as unemployed..
The Government is also spending more by employing more people which is only an added cost..
Yes the housing market is screwed and quantative easing will drive up inflation while the $$$ continues to tumble..

And again, the derivatives bubble is a time bomb waiting to explode..

What do you want me to say about the derivative bubble. If it bursts, the US isn't the only country in trouble. The world market will collapse. Meaning China and every other country will go down. The derivative bubble is estimated at 600 trillion to 1.5 quadrillion dollars. So, there is not much we can do about it, except try to regulate it (which they really are not doing currently).

As for the jobs, yes employment is getting better:

www.bloomberg.com...

Just last month over 500,000 jobs were created. They are estimating a drop in unemployment by 3-4% over the next 3-4 years. Which means by 2014 or 2015 they estimate the unemployment rate at 5-6%. When you say losing benefits do you mean someone is working for ATT right now, and ATT is withdrawing their medical insurance, but they are still paying them a salary? If you could please clarify that for me, that would be greatly appreciated.

China's population is expected to grow to 1.4-1.6 billion people by 2025. The Chinese Economy is expected to surpass the US by 2016. Stop drinking the Kool-aid and actually do some research if you want to put some substance behind your opinions.

reply to post by Ryanp5555


Yeah right. More Americans are on food assistance than ever before. I'd argue that the majority of the American population is one lost job away from financial disaster. The only job growth in the U.S. is low paying jobs that can barely cover a car payment, insurance and gas, much less housing. Forget about vacations, which is a right in European countires, as is healthcare by the way, yet they are ALL in MUCH better shape financially than is the U.S. So how can the great European nations take care of its people, enjoy vacations, guaranteed healthcare AND have better economies than the U.S.? Only possible answer is that Americans are FAR...F A R more stupid than Europeans and place less value on human life and health than even Victorian era England AND we hold the board room economic rapists and CEO titans of Big Business up as gods. Amercia circa 2011 is a much lesser, much uglier, much more angry, much more vicious society than circa 1980 before the sick trickle down Christian freaks took over this country. We are the ignorant warrior barbarians of the modern age and no more.

reply to post by Fester1882


China's one child policy does shrink it's population. It's one child per two people. Meaning when those two people die off, there is only one child left. China's population growth (49%) is HALF of the US's (96%).

www.cia.gov...

www.cia.gov...

China doesn't have an easy fix for this problem either. It's political strife does not make China an attractive place to live either. Hence, China is losing people to emigration as well. I should have quoted you because now I forgot what else you wrote.

reply to post by Ryanp5555

When you say losing benefits do you mean someone is working for ATT right now, and ATT is withdrawing their medical insurance, but they are still paying them a salary? If you could please clarify that for me, that would be greatly appreciated.

No mate, loosing benefits is just that, loosing benefits..
In the US you can only claim unemployment for so long and then you loose it..
You are no longer counted as unemployed though you still don't have a job..

reply to post by Buddha1098


Of course China is going to see an immediate growth in their population. However, by 2050 China's estimated population is down 200 million from the 2025 estimation (or if it hits your extraordinarily high-water mark of 1.6 billion 400 million). Why? Because people start dying off. Immediate growth is obvious.

reply to post by Ryanp5555

China's one child policy does shrink it's population. It's one child per two people. Meaning when those two people die off, there is only one child left. China's population growth (49%) is HALF of the US's (96%).

What a silly statement....
Most people end up as grandparents..
The one child policy leads to a roughly stagnant population, not a shrinking population..

Originally posted by Ryanp5555
reply to post by Fester1882

 

China's one child policy does shrink it's population. It's one child per two people. Meaning when those two people die off, there is only one child left. China's population growth (49%) is HALF of the US's (96%).

www.cia.gov...

www.cia.gov...

China doesn't have an easy fix for this problem either. It's political strife does not make China an attractive place to live either. Hence, China is losing people to emigration as well. I should have quoted you because now I forgot what else you wrote.

China's population growth rate is 0.493% (2011 est.) according to you own source. The Birth Rate is 12.29 and the death rate is 7.03

You realize that means the population is growing albeit very slowly right?

Originally posted by backinblack
reply to post by Ryanp5555

 

China's one child policy does shrink it's population. It's one child per two people. Meaning when those two people die off, there is only one child left. China's population growth (49%) is HALF of the US's (96%).

What a silly statement....
Most people end up as grandparents..
The one child policy leads to a roughly stagnant population, not a shrinking population..

LOL what? How do you figure? Demographers have made it clear that to maintain a stagnant population each couple should have 2.1 children. Why? Because there are two parents. Yes, people end up as grand parents. But the grand parents die.

www.independent.co.uk...
geography.about.com...

Let me put this in figures for you:

Grandpa 1 and Grandma 2 have one child (P1) due to the law and Grandma 3 and Grandpa 4 have one child (P2)

P1 and P2 have one child C1

Now lets say that the grandparents were the only ones alive in this country. They would have had more children but for the law. The grandparents die. The population moves from 7 down to 3.

And as I have stated before, China's population is also declining (although not really that much to be even statistically all that relevant) due to emigration.

They will more than surpass the USA, they have a three fold plan that is very near the final phase.

China rises as the US falls... Not without sacrifices and pain along the way, but will eventually emerge as the global leader, and that will lead to supremacy in virtually all categories.

It can be prevented, but it will likely lead to war, so maybe it is in the best interest of the USA to accept defeat now, and bow before their Chinese landlords and debt holders.

Originally posted by Ryanp5555
reply to post by Buddha1098

 

Of course China is going to see an immediate growth in their population. However, by 2050 China's estimated population is down 200 million from the 2025 estimation (or if it hits your extraordinarily high-water mark of 1.6 billion 400 million). Why? Because people start dying off. Immediate growth is obvious.

edit on 11-5-2011 by Ryanp5555 because: (no reason given)

In 2050 India will have surpassed China in Population with 1.6 billion people. China will have 1.4 billion and the US 400 million.

news.bbc.co.uk...