posted on May, 11 2011 @ 12:49 PM
You hear it all the time: China is poised to pass the United States as the largest economy in 20 years. However, I do not believe that this is going
to happen. I think the US has a long time before anyone ever surpasses them, and it may never happen since globalization is becoming more and more
prevalent. Here is why:
China currently has 1.3 billion people. The US has around 300 million. However, the disparity in population is not as great as it may seem. China's 1
child law means that China will only shrink. And they will shrink dramatically. This law came into effect in 1979. That means that in 20 years, the
YOUNGEST of the people that could have been born before it was illegal to have two children will be 51. In 40 years, it will be 71 (which is around
the age of their average life span). That means around 2051 China will have approximately 650 million people (1/2 is HIGHER than China's ACTUAL
growth rate, and they are losing people due to immigration; not gaining people. The United States, based on its average growth rate would stay about
the same, but the immigration rate provides an increase in the total population. Meaning, we will have closed the gap in terms of population size.
What does this mean? China will not be able to sustain the amount of production they are currently putting out because a vast amount of their work
force will shrink dramatically.
Isn't the US going through the same problem? Yes, but as everyone knows there is a huge untapped work force, that is likely to see reform so as to
tap it: Immigrants. Immigration reform is inevitable, its all about when it will happen. Does it get passed through Obama? I don't know. But it will
get passed within the next 20 years. Thereby making illegal immigrants legal, and allowing more people into the country per year. Thus, renewing the
baby boomer work force.
Now, lets go further. China is renowned for its political corruption and poor income per capita. In otherwords, even if China could get that strong,
the corrupt would not allow it to happen, because they'd be required to give money to the poor in order to fix their current standard of living. That
will not happen within the next 20 years. Which is another reason China will implode.
Finally, even if that were to happen, China depends too much on the United States businesses for their jobs. Also, the US is the consumer. So, lets
say China decided to improve minimum wage to a level that was unacceptably high for Walmart because Walmart starts losing profits due to less US
consumption of their goods. Walmart would simply move their labor force to another cheaper country.
It is for these reasons (dramatically shrinking population; political corruption; and dependence on US corporations) that I just don't buy that China
will surpass the United States any time in the near future.