Critical New Quake Could Mean Impending Disaster For Japan

Haven't lost me either. Been watching and reading. Have learned much on this thread and appreciate your work, TA. I think this is an important one, certainly for observation, documentation and learning, with valid concerns about the activity we're seeing in the SSZ . The Great Tokai Quake is long overdue and expected in Japan, putting Tokyo at risk. All I can add is that JMA has not issued any warnings in regard to it on their site as I write, but the activity demands some attention. Wouldn't surprise me if another mega hits and hope Japan can handle it if it does. They've been aware of this potential and have put emergency response pieces in place, yet have chosen not to be preventative and evacuate. That's a risk I wouldn't take if I lived in the Tokai Region right now, however, I do of course, hope it calms down without serious events.

reply to post by kubacs


Well be sure and follow this brand new thread I just posted:

Japan warns of massive earthquake and volcanic explosion after the April 7 earthquake

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I am still trying to confirm it, but it would finally be some preemptive action by the JMA if true.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
That article was up on NHK's site a couple days ago, but don't see it now.
P-waves move faster than S-waves, and so they take advantage of the brief warning time.

Pity missed that... been to busy with the nuke plants

reply to post by TrueAmerican

I read through your new posting re: Japan warns of massive earthquake and volcanic explosion after the April 7 earthquake . I found it all worthwhile, except of course the comments that it is all a waste of time and hogwash...but hey, that is their loss. I have wondered about the really strong "aftershocks" that Japan is getting since the 9.1 event. I know that the stronger the quake the more the aftershocks, etc. But I think it is building up to something, and you make sense. Also, haven't strange underwater ruins been studied off Japan's shore? Could part of the island have sunk in past? One has to wonder if this will happen again ...keep up the research and information!

Another earthquake just hit near Fukushima again. Felt it here in Yokohama. Didn't catch the magnitude yet, but news was referring to it as "tsuyoi" or strong.

Edit: Around 5:20 PM local time in Japan.

Yep the 6.6 caused a landslide this time

reply to post by kubacs


Been quietly watching, reading and learning from your posts over the weeks, as I suspect others are. Thanks for the detail and taking the time to educate the rest of us. At what point would you feel that an immediate risk of the Great Tokai Quake has passed?

Don't worry, TA, we're still here, although hoping you are wrong
Awesome thread, btw.

reply to post by trekintheuniverse


True American and others are far more experienced to comment on your question than this grasshopper But, I will say that because we now know that Japan is capable of producing a 9+ mega, exceptional things seem to be happening. Most of what I've seen on this thread provides evidence of this. So, I think there will also be some accumulated evidence that will lead to a consensus when things start to quiet down and the immediate risk is passed. I don't think we're anywhere near there yet. Here's a link with some general background on the Tokai Quake concerns:

Tokai History

6.2 with epicenter 47 miles ESE of Tokyo..shallow.



6.2 Near Tokyo

Japan to raise Fukushima crisis level to worst

Upgrades from a level 5 to a level 7

The Japanese government's nuclear safety agency has decided to raise the crisis level of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant accident from 5 to 7, the worst on the international scale.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency made the decision on Monday. It says the damaged facilities have been releasing a massive amount of radioactive substances, which are posing a threat to human health and the environment over a wide area.

The agency used the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, or INES, to gauge the level. The scale was designed by an international group of experts to indicate the significance of nuclear events with ratings of 0 to 7.

On March 18th, one week after the massive quake, the agency declared the Fukushima trouble a level 5 incident, the same as the accident at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979.

Level 7 has formerly only been applied to the Chernobyl accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986 when hundreds of thousands of terabecquerels of radioactive iodine-131 were released into the air. One terabecquerel is one trillion becquerels.

The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.

Officials from the agency and the Nuclear Safety Commission will hold a news conference on Tuesday morning to explain the change of evaluation.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011 05:47 +0900 (JST)

www3.nhk.or.jp...

Well, here is another map just updated after a new 6+ has hit, and it's important to document all this in this thread:



Now while you might see the two big squares, and yes, the one close to Tokyo, you might want to pay attention to the blue box to the west. That one is now showing an increase in magnitude over the previous swarm that has been going on there at that location. Those have escaped the reporting of the USGS, but if you have been following this thread, then you are ATS aware.

Which means you already know that there has been a swarm there. But now that increase in magnitude close to the western edge of the NA plate, could be indicative of something. What I don't know. I think I've done enough speculating on this thread to give you an idea.

6.0 43 miles S of Fukushima, 110 miles NNE of Tokyo...shallow. Twitter reports workers are being evacuated at Fukushima.

6.0

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I gotta say this is one of the slowest pins and needles events I've ever experienced! The other one was back in high school: "So when is he going to break up with me????" (sorry: TMI) But geez TA, I know you're right. Thank you so much for all your work and education.

Originally posted by missvicky
I gotta say this is one of the slowest pins and needles events I've ever experienced!

Geology take its time, and none of us are going to rush it. All we can do is collect data and observe patterns. And speaking of data and patterns, I have obtained some new maps from the JMA that bear some note, and a broader implication.

There was some disagreement on the Quake Watch 2011 thread about whether the last big 7.1 that hit was just an aftershock or a new source mechanism, and for the first time, I am prepared to state, and defend, what I feel to be fact. It is a new source mechanism.

The following map from the JMA shows quakes in this sequence on the left, and then the real proof on the right- you can clearly see an increase in frequency of quakes centered around this new rupture area, which indicates a main shock/aftershock sequence:


And here in this blown up version you can plainly see the rupture area:


I heard categorically stated on NHK that they considered this to be an aftershock of the 9+. While they are partly right, because the bigger quake and aftershocks triggered this new activity, they are also partly wrong. This clearly shows a main shock/aftershock sequence, which indicates the new rupture of an extension fault.

As to the threat to Tokyo, a troubling condition exists in that Tokyo has never really had a real big quake right directly under the city that I can see. Take a look at the history of 7 and 8+ quakes since 1900:



Now remember the red circle I drew on the map in a previous post above, showing how a tsunami could make it right into Tokyo Bay? That was the site of the great Kanto earthquake in 1923, and you can see the big circle right where that is, just south of Tokyo. That quake created a 39 foot tsunami that smashed into Sagami Bay. So the mechanism for a massive quake and tsunami does indeed exist there. It's happened before.

Now I just can't see how much longer Tokyo can hold out in light of the tremendous pressure loading that Tokyo itself must be under right about now from not only this latest pressure loading, but from the lack of stress relief via a big quake under the city itself for a VERY long time. Sure, there have been small ones under the city, and you can see that from other historical seismicity maps here:
neic.usgs.gov...

You could even argue that those quakes have been enough to avert a big one. You might argue that because there hasn't been one, that the mechanism for a big one doesn't exist directly under the city.

Well, given what I just showed above with a new area activating again, how can one be sure?

All indications are in my mind right now that Tokyo is about to get blasted. It might take weeks or even years. But there is no way in heck I would live there right about now, and to be honest they should at least get people to the southern part of the island, away from there.

In a broader scope, and letting my imagination out again (oh no).... The northern part of Japan rests on a very precarious, and slim spot of the NA plate- just a little finger of it actually. And because it doesn't have the stability of a huge continental mass behind it, the potential for a very large, catastrophic event like a portion of the Pacific or NA plate giving way or moving really far at once as up in Kamchatka is very real. The question is what events would precede such a calamity? Umm, maybe like, uhhh, quakes all along the plate lines? Maybe like, uhh, activation of old fault lines?

I don't know how anyone could prepare for such an event. But this might just be the kind of near-ELE event that leaves enough of us alive to rewrite the geology books and seriously reconsider where the world allows the building of nuclear plants- and where people really need to think about before they continue living there.

Lol, I just realized something. If they didn't classify it as a newly ruptured source and just called it an aftershock, which they did, then guess who just discovered that extension of the fault?

Yup. Me.

So how about we call it the TrueAmerican fault, right down the middle of Japan! Ha!

Well, just for the record, and an opposing point of view:

The March 11 quake was so strong that a Japan Coast Guard monitoring instrument on the floor of the Pacific Ocean near the epicenter moved 24 meters, or about 79 feet, eastward. The city of Sendai, whose airport was inundated by the tsunami, moved about 13 feet, according to Shinji Toda, a professor at Kyoto University.

Such large movements have shifted stresses in the earth, increasing the likelihood of quakes on some fault lines while reducing the likelihood on others, including the one involved in the 1923 Tokyo earthquake.

www.nytimes.com...

And as you know, they are referring to the very great Kanto quake of 1923 which I just mentioned. And so they are saying that all this activity has actually DECREASED the probability of a quake in the Tokyo area. Well perhaps this is good news. We shall see.

Looks like Science is supporting your concerns, TA. You've been out front on this one from the beginning. Congrats and keep on. Hope we all do. Might help a few people get out of harm's way. This thing is far from over.

In the month since the March 11 earthquake, there have been frequent aftershocks at and around the initial quake's focus, including many strong quakes with a magnitude of 5 or higher. Experts say there are more shocks to come, possibly as strong as magnitude 8.

The apparent southern boundary of the aftershock zone from the March 11 earthquake is off the shore of eastern Chiba Prefecture. In that area, the Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate slide under the landward plate that includes eastern Japan. Tuesday's earthquake off Chiba occurred because faults in the landward plate became active. Movements of the Philippine Sea plate affect seismic activity in Tokyo Bay. But only a few earthquakes at the magnitude-3 or magnitude-4 levels have been recorded there since March 11, according to the agency. The level of seismic activity has not changed much. However, Prof. Koshun Yamaoka of Nagoya University pointed out that seismic activity in northern Chiba and southern Ibaraki Prefectures, which is also linked to the Philippine Sea plate, has increased. "An earthquake could hit the Tokyo metropolitan area with its focus directly below the city. We'll have to observe the situation carefully," Yamaoka added.

reply to post by kubacs


I appreciate your contributions, but please link your sources. It not only helps us readers, but it's required by the rules of ATS.

reply to post by UtahRosebud


Am sorry, UtahRosebud. TY for bringing to my attention. Am learning... here's the link to my post above along with one on the other thread. Hope both are helpful to all.

WA Post

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