Oh no Vagabond! You committed sacriledge!
But really, you completely left out ideological differences, the first Civil War was caused by economic conditions (the South paying for Northern
Industry). But now we have an equally if not more volatile problem, ideology, States are being asked to change their moral standards to fit the
ideological view-points of a few.
While the South would rather just leave the Union than put up with Federal tariffs, the States can only take so much forcing of actual core moral
values, before they finally snap.
As I said, it's hard to tell when it will come, like the Civil War it will explode over night over a major issue.
The Civil War literally went from unthinkable in 1859 to happening in 1861.
1860 is known as a period of "Secessionitis".
The catalyst for then was Abraham Lincoln and the Republican party being so popular and finally, Lincoln being elected.
When the catalyst comes it'll hit hard amongst the more anti-federal states (the ones that don't receive many benefits from the Government
especially) and those fall in geographical groups, West-South anti-federal and North and East fall more towards pretty pro-federal States. (this just
looking at an economic dependency on the Feds coinciding with partisan divisions which also show ideological divisions.)
If that catalyst were tomorrow, who knows where we'd be in a year.
The catalyst will be simply put, the Federal Government enforcing an ideology that a state does not agree with, in the wrong area.
The reason this didn't happen with the Civil Rights movement was obvious, oppression of blacks in the South was not a "core value".
But religion is, and as religious beliefs are more and more oppressed (we've ran out of moderate oppressions such as teaching Creationism), the
situation will grow more volatile.
Hell I was surprised nothing picked-up in Alabama over the Ten Commandments, but that was wheeling a 5,000 lbs stone into another room, far from
But when the Feds try to change an actual state law in any number of these catalytic states, Nevada, Texas, most the South.
The situation I doubt will be so similar.
In conclusion, I think you should just ask more people Vagabond, that you know about Civil War.
I'm not sure where you are, and I can only speak for my area, but I was surprised when I first began to talk to people about a coming Civil War, and
finding this was something on many people's minds as well.
I live in a very anti-federal area, Nevada, and near the North Eastern Californians who are also pretty anti-federal.
So it's not so much that people like us are few and far between, but that there is not any real focusing events going on right now to generate common
But just wait until some ideological view is expressed through the Federal Government in an effort to change the laws of any anti-federal state...and
I believe you'll be surprised if you hold your current views.
Ideology, it's our economic catalyst of 1860.
As any political science teacher will tell you if you ask, "I've never seen anything like it before, the nation is more polarized now than ever and
continuing to become more-so."
Since realizing that I've tried to see if there is a correlation geographically of this polarization, and yes there is.
Everything is set-up, there just needs to be a spark.