Why Turkey accepting the anti-missile shield could lead to WW3

First off, you must know that Russia knows that their military is outdated and can't compete with NATO. The only way they can stay sovereign is by having nukes and be willing to use them.... Russia without nukes would be invaded the same day by China and/or NATO and taken for their natural resources. Russia wouldn't be able to stop them.

This is not WW2. A NATO army doesn't have hundreds of thousands of HORSES to carry food and ammo like the Nazis did... Russia would be defeated, no doubts about it.

Which is why they view their nuclear arsenal as crucial.

Since their nuclear arsenal is so precious to them, Russia have always been opposed to the anti-missile shield that NATO have been pushing for decades now. Why? Because it weakens the MAD concept, the MUTUAL ASSURED DESTRUCTION, that allowed humanity to go through the cold war alive.

No MAD or a weak MAD makes the chances of a nuclear confrontation go up. Because after all, if you can destroy your enemy and take their natural resources without any backlash...why not? And you're not talking about sane people making decision here, you're talking about POLITICIANS. Politicians who will sell their own fellowmen, lie and steal for their own greed, doesn't matter if millions of people die. For examples, see HISTORY.

Now there's lots of talks about Turkey accepting the anti-missile shield on their territory to confront ``Iran``... nobody buys that BS but apparently they still run with that line. If it was really directed at Iran, those interceptors batteries would be placed in Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel.

There's also lots of talks about Turkey drifting away from the NATO and the west in general and that if Turkey refuses the anti-missile shield deal, it will prove that Turkey is in fact allied with our enemies.

Here's what Turkey says must be accomplished first before they accept the missile shield.

First, the Turkish authorities insist on building NATO, but not the U.S. missile defense system. Second, the anti-missile shield should be deployed in the all alliance's states-members. And third, Turkey would not allow NATO to turn it into the alliance's frontline state as it was during the Cold War.

The most important point is the second one.

the anti-missile shield should be deployed in the all alliance's states-members.

That means Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania...all bordering Russia and eventually Ukraine/Georgia if NATO gets their way, which at the time being is very unlikely.

What Russia is afraid of is a FIRST STRIKE.

With a first strike, how many ``retaliation`` capabilities will Russia have? 10%-20% retaliation capabilities between confusion/malfunction/destruction?

Now from Pentagon plans/time lines I've seen in books about the missile shield, in the final phases of the project, there's supposed to be THOUSANDS of interceptors batteries in the US alone, not counting those on planes, which they are developing, and those on boats, which already exist and those around the world.

At some point, the nuts in Washington/NATO headquarters could think that their offensive capabilities + anti-missile shield capabilities + acceptable losses is enough to do it.

And that is the day that Russia fears.

But way before the ultimate confrontation is the days that Russia is encircled by the anti-missile shield and unless they want to start WW3 over it, have to comply to NATO requests.

Hopefully Turkey says NO to this BS and/or the US goes bankrupt and can't finance this insanity before it leads us to Armageddon.

Of course there could be at least three solutions to this.

1- Disband the anti-missile shield, stop wasting money, we are all bankrupt anyway.
2- Make Russia join NATO. (Won't happen because Russia would have to open all their military bases to NATO inspection, not to mention the SCO)
3- Make Russia join the anti-missile shield.(more likely) (before putting it on their border) (hopefully)

reply to post by Vitchilo


S & F

No offense but you sound like you are toting the line for Tehran. There are several articles that show various activities on this topic. Russia is not the old Cold War rival it once was. They are heavily dependent on Western business for their economic well being. In this next century as wealth shifts there will be newer players in the game with deep pockets and resources. Iran is presently a possible threat but in the future there will be no telling which other developing countries will pose a possible threat.

1. Russia will cooperate on the missile defense shield. Not because they were bullied or bought off but because in this developing century the two old cold war camps are gone....
NATO Seeks Russian Cooperation on Missile Defense

NATO sees Russia as a strategic partner and seeks to cooperate on missile defense as leaders of the former Cold War foes prepare to meet in Lisbon later this month, Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said. “I think we can agree on a way forward at this summit,” Rasmussen told reporters today in Moscow. “We do not want to impose a specific missile defense architecture on Russia.”

2. Turkey will go along with it because contrary to Internet pop culture opinion they want in the EU and to have better western ties...
Turkey to approve missile system if principles met

Turkey is hopeful it can find the diplomatic means to make support of NATO’s plans for a regional missile defense shield unanimous at an upcoming summit, but only if its principles are upheld, well-informed sources said Monday.

The Turkish position toward the missile defense system is based on two principles, namely that security be guaranteed for each and every NATO member state and that no country be listed as a specific threat, according to the sources.

3. The only country that is really apposed to the system is Iran. Now why is that? If they have no Nuclear ambitions then they will not be a threat with their missiles right?
Deployment of NATO missile defense systems threatens Iran

Deployment of NATO missile defense shield in Turkey is against Iran’s national interests and Turkey, being a Moslem state, should not have assumed that deal, “tabnaq.ir” website reported....

Iranian “arannews.ir” reported earlier that a local expert Hasan Qenin said if Turkey agreed upon deployment of NATO missile systems, Iran would mobilize Shiite groups of Syria and Lebanon against Turkey.

I'm not an Iranian shill

Anyway... Now I'm thinking... what if Russia did that SLBM launch over LA? Could this be connected? Related to the missile shield?

A warning that their missile shield is useless...and not to push with it? After all, it was done just over Vanderberg Air Force Base...also PT Mugu... where they test anti-missile shield... and that is mere miles from LA...

Me thinks this very well could be connected.

Well it seems Obama has done it... that bastard is leading us right into WW3 territory.

NATO has agreed for first time to missile defense system covering all NATO countries and U.S., Obama says - AP

ALL NATO... meaning Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Right on Russia's border.

If you think for a second Russia is gonna accept this and bend over, you got another thing coming.


THE ONLY WAY TO AVOID WW3 NOW IS FOR RUSSIA TO TAKE PART IN THE MISSILE SHIELD.

Which they might or might not do.

But Nato on Friday decided to invite Russia to join the defence shield, extending its protection across Russian territory.

But...NATO seeks to allay Russian suspicions at summit

"Whether it would risk threatening Russia's strategic missile potential or whether Russia can really take part on a equal basis. This what we need to hear in Lisbon."

So depending on what NATO says this weekend, this whole thing could be very dangerous or very good.

US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder has said NATO could not make cooperation with Russia a condition for developing defences against any eventual threat.

So basically... Russia either agrees with our terms or they can piss off...

The next few days will be very very very very important for world's future/peace.

If this goes forward without Russia, Russia is gonna do something for sure... They just cannot sit there while this is happening and destroying MAD.

Maybe they'll put nukes in Cuba and let them there this time.

A good article by a Russian analyst.

5 Reasons Why Russia Will Never Join NATO

1. NATO requires that its members have civilian and democratic control over their armed forces.

Another reason why Russia will fiercely resist NATO’s requirement for transparency in military affairs is that it is hypersensitive about sharing its “military secrets” with NATO

2. Russia needs NATO as an “enemy,” not as an alliance partner. NATO is seen by conservative and nationalist forces that dominate the defense and security establishment as an inherently anti-Russian alliance. All the talk about NATO’s revised strategy and focus on new threats — terrorism, sea piracy, narcotics or cyberattacks — is a sham, we are told. The alliance’s real target remains Russia, just as it was during the Cold War.

3. China. If Russia ever became a NATO member, it would extend the alliance’s territory to China, which has a 4,000-kilometer border with Russia. This would upset the tripolar global security balance between NATO, Russia and China, and it would cause China — which is just as suspicious of enemy conspiracy theories as Russia is — to believe that Russia and NATO are joining forces to “contain,” or even weaken, China.

4. The Collective Security Treaty Organization. NATO membership would effectively mean the end of the CSTO, which Russia has worked so hard on since its creation in 2002 to compete with NATO for influence in the global security arena

5. Russia’s global ambitions. Most important, Russian membership in NATO would all but mean the end of Russia’s dream of restoring its former superpower status. By joining NATO, Russia would effectively become “just another large European country” on the same level as Germany, Britain or France — a “sacrilege” for the derzhavniki, or great-power nationalists, who remember when the Soviet Union was much larger and more powerful than these three countries combined.

It would also be an admission that Russia is de facto subordinate to the United States in the world’s largest and most influential security organization, which is unacceptable even to moderate members of the political and military establishment. Although the Kremlin no longer has messianic ambitions to create a Third Rome or Third International, at the very least it will want to preserve its sovereignty and independence as a regional and global power.

All good points. Russia will not join NATO EVER...

But what about the missile shield.... well if everyone, even Russia have the missile shield... but CHINA isn't part of it... what will China think of it? A NATO-Russian missile shield against China to be able to carry out a first strike?

reply to post by Vitchilo


I don't think either the US or the EU want Russia to join NATO but rather be a bit more cooperative is all.

Well the first news seem good.

Russia will work with NATO on missile defence: Medvedev

But...

Russia wants 'equal' role in Europe missile shield: Medvedev

"I will even say more: our participation can only be partner-like, there can be no other participation, to keep up appearances so to speak," he said.

So it has to be EQUAL.

Now if this kind of view has it's way we are in trouble :
NATO, Russia missile shields must remain separate: Lithuania

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite said Saturday that Russia would never be given command power in a missile shield that NATO will erect over Europe.

"No way,"

Of course Lithuanian leadership hates Russia... but we'll see if this view is wide in NATO or just this leader.


They seem to want to put this deal on paper by June 2011. I guess we'll see how things go till then... this partnership is CRUCIAL if we want to avoid WW3.

'Russia-NATO deal to threaten China'

Russia's approval to cooperate with NATO on a missile system and other security issues will pose a threat to China, says an expert.

In a Saturday meeting in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon, Moscow and the military bloc agreed to conduct a joint study on how Russia can join the missile system, which is said to protect Europe and North America from long-range missiles.

"This poses a direct threat to China. This puts NATO right on the Chinese border," Wayne Madsen, a Washington-based national security analyst, said in an interview with Press TV on Sunday.

Duh.

Gee another article saying what I was saying all along.

McCain: 'Waste no time' on missile shield

The United States and its NATO allies must move forward with developing and deploying a missile shield to protect Europe, with or without Russian cooperation, senior US Senator John McCain said Monday.

Basically, we do what we want and you agree to it or screw you.

What Russia said...

"Either we participate fully, exchange information, are in charge of solving these or those issues, or we do not participate at all," he said, warning that "if we do not participate at all then we would be forced to defend ourselves."

Russia, as I said, IF they are not part of this missile shield, VIEW THIS AS A THREAT WHICH IT IS.

Poland to host U.S. jets and C-130s
I'm sure that's for Iran too uh?


Although it's not all bad news.
Medvedev wants missile defence carve-up of Europe: reports

But sources told the Kommersant newspaper that the scheme, proposed at closed-door talks, would help NATO and Russia create a joint missile defence system without having to merge their missile systems and divulge secrets.

"Medvedev's initiative can be briefly laid out as follows: Moscow is ready to shoot down any object heading to Europe through our territory or our sector of responsibility," Kommersant quoted an unidentified senior diplomat as saying.

"That is literally to defend countries located to the west of Russia."

"Equally NATO should take upon itself similar responsibilities in its sector or sectors: if someone decides to strike at us through Europe -- everything that will fly should be shot down by Americans or NATO members."

That would be a good plan.

Well I am convinced that at some point NATO is going to get hammered by the Russians when they launch a conventional war in Eastern Europe .The days of MAD are over Russia is cutting back on its Nuclear Weapons stockpile so they can spend more on there conventional forces . Obama has ruled out using Nuclear Weapons altogether all but giving North Korea and Iran the green light to do something crazy . Today nukes are the tools of rogue states and terrorist organisations if they can get them .

Ok this ain't good AT ALL. I hate being right...

NATO rebuffs Russian missile defense offer: report

NATO leaders have rejected a proposal from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to unite the country's missile defenses with a shield being built by the West, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

So basically, as I said, NATO was just saying that Russia ``would be an equal partner`` for PR.... and never really intended to do so.

Now I hope cooperation will not end and that they will reach a deal before June or things could get real bad.

Forget START this year...

Key US senator resolute on Russia nuclear pact

A key US senator reiterated Sunday his position that a new nuclear arms treaty with Russia could not be ratified this year, rejecting calls from President Barack Obama for quick action.

"It is more a view of reality rather than policy," senator John Kyl told NBC's "Meet the Press," calling for weeks of debate on the details of the new START arms reduction treaty.

isn't strange that a 99% islamic country is allied whiy NATO insteed of taking the side of Iran and other islamic countries.

Originally posted by mick1423
isn't strange that a 99% islamic country is allied whiy NATO insteed of taking the side of Iran and other islamic countries.

Well that's thanks to Ataturk.... read on some Turkey history...

Russia Positions Warheads Near NATO Allies, Fueling U.S. Concern

The U.S. believes Russia has moved short-range tactical nuclear warheads to facilities near North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies as recently as this spring, U.S. officials say, adding to questions in Congress about Russian compliance with long-standing pledges ahead of a possible vote on a new arms-control treaty.

Russia knows what NATO is for.

The important part of the article :

Russia's movement of the ground-based tactical weapons appeared to coincide with the deployment of U.S. and NATO missile-defense installations in countries bordering Russia.

Yep. Russia KNOWS.

Medvedev warns West of new arms race

President Dmitry Medvedev warned Tuesday that failure by Russia and the West to agree on a new missile shield for Europe could spark an arms race that would see Moscow deploy new weapons systems.

Yep that's what he said in his NATO speech.

Nukes WikiLeak 'illegal, irresponsible and dangerous': NATO

NATO slammed Tuesday the release of confidential US files revealing where the United States has deployed nuclear weapons in Europe as "illegal, irresponsible and dangerous," spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said.

Sensitive US diplomatic cables placed on the Internet show that most of the 200 US nuclear bombs still left in Europe are located in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Turkey.

While these countries have raised the issue of disarmament, the precise location of these tactical bombs had not been made official prior to the latest leaks.

Gee, NATO lying to people again! What a surprise! Way to go WIKILEAK! You ROCK!

Putin warns Russia will step up nuclear defense without new arms deal

In an interview with CNN host Larry King, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin spoke of threats that might emerge if no agreement on missile defense in Europe and the New START treaty is reached.

­Vladimir Putin said that if the US fails to seal the new deal, Russia will have no choice but to build up its nuclear forces.

Well of course... now for once those bastards in the senate should do the right thing and sign that damn treaty!

Sarkozy called Russian FM a 'liar': WikiLeaks

French President Nicolas Sarkozy
called Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov a "liar" during negotiations with Moscow following the August 2008 conflict with Georgia, according to a US memo released by WikiLeaks.

Really? Who the hell started the war? Georgia started it. The ones lying were the western medias!

In US talks, Russian military still guarded: WikiLeaks

Russian military leaders remain guarded in talks with their US counterparts and defense cooperation has not progressed much since the end of the Cold War, according to a US document posted by WikiLeaks.

In a leaked diplomatic cable written last year from the US embassy in Moscow, defense ties between the two countries are described as useful but hampered by a "lack of Russian transparency and reciprocity."

Well duh. 74 years of ``we'll kill you for any reason`` tend to make people shut up... especially when talking national security with perceived enemies... Wait for the current generation to die... and wait for those born after 1991 and you might see improvement.

Russia not moving missiles near NATO allies: Putin

Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia was not moving tactical nuclear weapons near NATO allies, and pointed the finger back at the West for escalating tensions on the issue.

Asked in an interview on CNN's "Larry King Live" whether Moscow was moving the missiles, Putin said: "It's not us who are moving forward our missiles to your territory."

Western powers, Putin said, are "planning to mount missiles at the vicinity of our borders, of our territory" in a bid to secure against the threat of Iran's alleged nuclear drive.

"Such a threat, as of now, does not exist," Putin pointed out.

The potential for missiles being hosted near Russian borders "certainly... worries us. And we are obliged to take some actions in response" if that occurs, the prime minister added.

Well yeah, NATO is moving more stuff near the Russian borders... but is Putin lying about Russia moving nukes near the NATO borders... I bet he is.

Russia to increase missiles unless shield agreed: Putin

Russia slams OSCE stance on Georgia

Russia says it will not accept final documents issued by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) as they openly refer to “the conflicts in Georgia.”

"We are ready...to support the Geneva discussions. But we cannot agree that these discussions are devoted to 'conflicts in Georgia,' as some of our Western partners propose," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the OSCE summit in Kazakhstan's capital Astana.

Relations are just getting better uh?

NATO must involve Russia in missile defence: Medvedev

"This should be a joint initiative of Russia and NATO that can protect us against threats," Medvedev told the Polish weekly Wprost in an interview published to coincide with a two-day visit to Poland that began Monday.

"(But) if Russia does not find a place for itself within that system, in 2020 it may be that an anti-missile defense umbrella will become a factor destabilizing the nuclear equilibrium and diminishing Russia's defense capacity, and this may lead to a new arms race," Medvedev said.

Which is exactly what I said earlier... RUSSIA MUST BE PART OF THIS or we're gonna have problems.

Originally posted by mick1423
isn't strange that a 99% islamic country is allied whiy NATO insteed of taking the side of Iran and other islamic countries.

The more we dig the uglier it gets.

There has been bad blood in the region going back centuries. Yes Operation AJAX and all that. But there has been a sectarian conflict brewing in the region under the surface for a long-long time.


We have had Iranians training and supplying insurgents in Iraq extending that war needlessly a full two years or more in an attempt to influence the New Iraqi government which is struggling to deal with the centuries old Sunni and Shiite issues. Iran [Persians] supporting the Iraqi Shiites and the Saudis [ARABS] supporting the Iraqi Sunnis etc. Iran wants to have a major influence on the Iraqi Government and the Saudis don't like the idea of a Islamic democracy near it's Kingdom.


April 20, 2006
How are relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors?

Strained, experts say. "Their mutual resentment goes back a thousand years," says Fariborz Makhtaria, professor at the Near East South Asia Center of the National Defense University, referring to the early rift between Shiites and Sunnis over who should inherit the leadership of the Muslim community after Mohammed's death in AD 632. In the 1960s and 1970s, Iran's shah began to assert Iranian influence in the region and even briefly declared Bahrain a part of Iran. The overthrow of the shah in 1979 did not improve relations. Most Arab states sided with Iraq during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War to prevent a Shiite-led revolution from spreading.

Others struck bilateral security agreements with the United States. Iran began to see Arab regimes, particularly Saudi Arabia, as tacit supporters of U.S. foreign policy. "The Iranians have come to believe they cannot rely on Arabs even though they're Muslims," Makhtaria says. "That's why they want a homegrown deterrence—because Iran doesn't have any friends in the region." Arab states, meanwhile, view Iran's intentions in the Middle East with suspicion, particularly its interference in southern Iraq. They are concerned the United States and Iran are purposely keeping the Arabs sidelined on Iraqi negotiations.

Gulf leaders to meet as Iran nuclear fears loom

The leaked memos give a sense of drama that is normally absent from the annual summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, a six-nation bloc that typically focuses on economic issues and prefers behind-the-scenes dealings to address disputes in their own backyard.

But the group, dominated by powerful Saudi Arabia, may now feel pressure to publicly clarify its views on Iran. The leaked memos drove home that Saudis and other Gulf states with close ties to Washington view Tehran's nuclear program and its support of militants in the Middle East with serious alarm.

"The Gulf leaders know they are on the front lines against Iran. They make their fears known in private," said Sami Alfaraj, head of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies. "The summit in Abu Dhabi could give some clue if they are now willing to take a harder line in public."

The Manama talks are taking place in Bahrain to discuss security in the Gulf with one of the big issues being the involvement of foreign powers, particularly when it comes to Iran. Can those powers help establish security, or should Gulf countries work it out on their own - remembering the mistrust that has been revealed by WikiLeaks?

Gee what a surprise...NOT :

NATO bolsters eastern Europe amid Russia fears: WikiLeaks

Military alliance NATO has expanded defence plans in parts of eastern Europe amid fears that Russia poses an increasing threat, US diplomatic cables released Tuesday by WikiLeaks showed.

Contingency plans were drawn up for the three Baltic states -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- earlier this year after they lobbied for extra protection following the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, said the leaked cables.

The US has also offered to beef up Polish security amid fears of a resurgent Russia, said the cables, despite the policy of US President Barack Obama's administration to "reset" relations with Moscow.

And that was EARLY 2010... yeah about that ``restart`` in relations... is all a big screen of lies.

NATO has plans to protect Baltics from Russia: WikiLeaks

Military alliance NATO has drawn up plans to defend the Baltic states against Russian threats, US diplomatic cables released Tuesday by WikiLeaks showed.

An existing defence plan covering Poland was extended to include Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after they lobbied for extra protection, said the leaked cables, revealed in Britain's Guardian daily.

The move to defend the former Soviet republics from Moscow risks undermining US President Barack Obama's efforts to "reset" relations with Russia after they were severely tested during the presidency of George W. Bush.

Well duh... of course NATO sees Russia as a threat.

Poland asked US about missile shield uses: WikiLeaks

The US told Poland that a proposed American and NATO missile shield aimed at defending against attacks from Iran or Syria could be used to stop "missiles coming from elsewhere," US cables released by WikiLeaks showed Tuesday.

Despite repeated claims that the shield is not aimed at deterring attacks from Russia, the correspondence suggests US officials have considered broader uses for the defence system than they have publicly let on.

And by elsewhere, they stinking mean RUSSIA.

The missile shield is for A FIRST STRIKE, ALWAYS HAS BEEN, ALWAYS WILL BE.

Why do you think the final phase of the project includes THOUSANDS of interceptors JUST IN THE US? For North Korea or Iran? PLEASE.