reply to post by Zenithar
Again, no it isn't. Let me grab my calculator to calculate the odds of five hands of a five card stud poker in a game with five people playing.
To make things slightly simpler, I'm going to assume that every hand plays out and that nobody changes cards.
Ok, odds of the first hand happening are: 1 in 7,407,396,657,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Now 7,407,396,657,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 to the fifth power would be...oh snap, my calculator doesn't even calculate that high. I
can come up with the probability for two hands of poker with five people:
1 in 54,869,525,240,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
That's just the odds for two games of poker turning out in any possible way. But the thing is that they have to turn out one way. Just because
something is insanely improbable doesn't mean it's impossible.
The probability of a deck of cards being in any given order is
1 in 80,658,175,170,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
It doesn't mean that it's impossible for the deck of cards to be in the order it is in, just highly improbable.
Now imagine that you have 50 decks of cards in front of you. The probability that all of the decks of cards in front of you are in the order that
they're currently in is
1 in 80,658,175,170,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000^50
That is an insanely high number that I don't have the hardware to properly calculate. In fact there is a massive margin of error on all of my
calculations as their accuracy gets cut off after the first ten digits.
Probability doesn't mean impossibility. It just means that there are a lot of different ways something can turn out. All of the options in this
scenario have the same probability, but one option has to happen.
Now, the odds of getting struck by lightning? 1 in 750,000
Odds of winning the powerball? 1 in 195,249,054
You have a better chance of winning the Powerball eight times in a row than you do of having a deck of cards in any particular order.
Now, which one is impossible?