Market Sends Warning: Total Implosion T-Minus 40 Days

Investment geeks may have heard the phrase Hindenburg Omen before, but I’m willing to bet the vast majority of you have not.

The Hindenburg Omen is a pattern of market actions that have historically been followed by large market crashes within the following 40 days of the event. We have seen two such omens in as many days.

Historically, we can say that the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash is 24%. 77% of the time the market has seen at least a 5% move to the downsize.

Does two in a week mean double the odds of a total implosion? We can’t know for sure, but based on historical data – it doesn’t look good.

Zero Hedge reports:

Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 – a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).

To be honest, I’m kind of eager to see Wall Street totally implode its face in. The total destruction of the criminal financial sector may finally bring about calls for a return to sound money and an end to the criminal private banking cartel you call the federal reserve banking system.

The criminal federal government has been propping up Wall Street to the tune of tens of trillions trying to prevent the ultimate day of reckconing that must occur. Because of all the outrageous actions of our criminal government, the market is wildly over-valued and totally disconnected from market fundamentals.

Here are some examples of what we can expect as citizens in the near future: cats and dogs living together, Hitler returning from the grave, thermonuclear warfare, the bubonic plague smiting half the worlds population, and the Christ returning on a chariot of fire.

If you want to know why we are currently in the state we are in, watch this:




edit:

Third event reported today, that's three.



[edit on 20-8-2010 by mnemeth1]

I don't put much stock (heh) into the various charts, graphs and whatnot that many folks use to predict the markets as a whole, more so since 9/11 and the plunge of 08 as these events have altered the way we view the markets but the hindenburg event is a pretty scary one. Granted, since 08, most of what we knew has been tossed out the window and the indicators don't give us the same pictures as they had prior to this decade, this event has a frighteningly accurate historical prediction rate and that, alone, is worth noting.

Originally posted by mnemeth1
cats and dogs living together,

It'll be anarchy. If you tell me the stay puft marshmallow man is coming to town, I'm outta here.

reply to post by Crakeur


"I don't put much stock (heh) into the various charts, graphs and whatnot that many folks use to predict the markets as a whole"

Neither does Zero Hedge, nor myself, nor anyone else that has half a brain haha.

The market hasn't operated on fundamentals for a long time now. PE ratios, dividends, and other normal indicators of a productive corporation are totally worthless.

We are operating in a Soviet style command economy, with the Fed and the federal legislator at the wheel.

Total economic doom is very near. - as if what we have now isn't bad enough.

reply to post by mnemeth1

To be honest, I’m kind of eager to see Wall Street totally implode its face in. The total destruction of the criminal financial sector may finally bring about calls for a return to sound money and an end to the criminal private banking cartel you call the federal reserve banking system.

The problem with this is that EVERY financial rise and fall for the last 100 years has been orchestrated by these sames people/group. If a collapse is planned then you can bet their money is safe. Probably in Gold or Real Estate.

The little guy will get screwed again and the rich will get richer.

Originally posted by CynicalM


The little guy will get screwed again and the rich will get richer.

That is the goal of a command economy, and why people like George Soros and Warren Buffet agitate for it.

To abscond with the wealth of the people through manipulation of interest rates and currency.

To regulate competition into the ground.

To acquire government contracts and bailouts.

To socialize losses while retaining profits.

40 days huh ???
well that gives me time
for a run to the store
for popcorn and beer.

Oh wait a min
I don't drink

so I'll settle for the popcorn
and Pepsi !!! Maybe a lawn chair
in there somewhere.

Darn! I have to wait for fourty days to see the big "Poooff!" ?? Would be great if it ACTUALLY happened. It would restore my faith in all sorts of prophecies.

Buuut I am afraid that it will be another uneventful day, bored at work. Tired at home. Read a bit and go to bed.(Current bed-time snack:Michio Kaku's "Parallel Worlds". If You'd like to know. Complex, but utterly enthralling)

I could also follow Boondock-Saint's plan. I do not drink too..sooo..lawnchair, pepsi and whaddabout some burgers&ribs on the BBQ? Whaddaya say...?





[edit on 8/20/2010 by diakrite]

reply to post by mnemeth1


I agree, but one thing I think is its NOT about the money.

If its was, these guys would not push inflation.

What they want is "real" wealth.
ie: when they screw the market they can then jump in and buy up assets very cheaply. Property, minerals, infrastructure, companies etc.

And at the same time, kill off the opposition..Great plan and its working..

Even here in Australia that was really not effected that much by the GFC, you'd be surprised how many smaller financial companies went bust. Only the big ones survived and are making huge profits.

Just today, the ANZ bank reported a 37% increase in profits. Then went on to say it may increase interest rates..Gotta lovem.

reply to post by CynicalM


They already have the real wealth.

The banks own all the houses and are holding them off market right now.

We, the tax payer, have paid the banks for those houses which they now own.

That is how this works.

They are now finishing up the final act of looting and will eventually abscond with all the pensions and retirement funds - those are next to get raided.

They are going to blow the bond market up.



[edit on 20-8-2010 by mnemeth1]

reply to post by mnemeth1



I'm sorry about the lack of detail, but I read a thread on here a few weeks back where someone pointed out that a respectable blogger who predicted the last market crash predicts that we are going to have a much bigger crash around September 16th. He uses research, including using meeting dates by bigwigs in Rome, to determine his dates.

The result will be a phenomenal replacement of corrupt congressmen in Nov 2010 elections.

Which makes me think it will not happen. The "sky is falling" soon is how the controllers maintain their hold on people.... herd it hundreds of times over the last 3 years.

If the economic sky actually fell it might be the best thing that ever happened in the long term & and for restoring economic independence.

reply to post by Crakeur


Crakeur how much time or when can we expect the next market fall by your prediction, i made some stating threads the things arent getting better as the media suggests in your view.

When can we expect the next market downfall?

Originally posted by Agent_USA_Supporter
Crakeur how much time or when can we expect the next market fall by your prediction, i made some stating threads the things arent getting better as the media suggests in your view.
When can we expect the next market downfall?

I haven't a clue. I figure it will be extremely volatile, with big swings in either direction, at least until the end of the year.

I'm unsure where you picked up that I was saying things were getting better or that the media was saying it. I don't think the media tells us anything. One channel has doom, the other has rainbows and unicorns. I think they're all morons.

The only indicator I know of that is always a good one is that, when the normal, common folk start jumping into a market, it's time to get the hell out. So, if you start hearing tales of big winnings from your doctor, your cab driver, folks on ATS etc, sell it all.

Originally posted by CynicalM
reply to post by mnemeth1

 

I agree, but one thing I think is its NOT about the money.

If its was, these guys would not push inflation.

What they want is "real" wealth.
ie: when they screw the market they can then jump in and buy up assets very cheaply. Property, minerals, infrastructure, companies etc.

And at the same time, kill off the opposition..Great plan and its working..

Even here in Australia that was really not effected that much by the GFC, you'd be surprised how many smaller financial companies went bust. Only the big ones survived and are making huge profits.

Just today, the ANZ bank reported a 37% increase in profits. Then went on to say it may increase interest rates..Gotta lovem.

I agree, it is not about money. It is about two related thing--and you can add money as a third--if you wish. It is about control (via the use of money) and fulfilling a fundamental ideological program that most of us consider to be non-existent or too crazy to be believeable. I believe somewhere there is a name for it that we've heard often in these pages.

Originally posted by mnemeth1
Investment geeks may have heard the phrase Hindenburg Omen before, but I’m willing to bet the vast majority of you have not.

The Hindenburg Omen is a pattern of market actions that have historically been followed by large market crashes within the following 40 days of the event. We have seen two such omens in as many days.

Historically, we can say that the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash is 24%. 77% of the time the market has seen at least a 5% move to the downsize.

Does two in a week mean double the odds of a total implosion? We can’t know for sure, but based on historical data – it doesn’t look good.

From your link:

To eliminate false positives some technical analysts have imposed the condition that the Hindenburg Omen

* must be triggered 3 times in a row within a month from the 1st triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid
* is only valid when "all tightly coupled triggerings are within a fortnight"
* will indicate a possible future downturn or correction, depending on the magnitude of any "one off" triggering

According to some, the Omen has yet to occur.

[edit on 20-8-2010 by misinformational]

Originally posted by mnemeth1
Investment geeks may have heard the phrase Hindenburg Omen before, but I’m willing to bet the vast majority of you have not.

Not me.

Hindenburg Omen: Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent?

I forgot to ask. So this is indeed the second one? But it has to be three?
I don't think people are agreeing on what constitute a hindenburg omen.

Originally posted by zzombie
The result will be a phenomenal replacement of corrupt congressmen in Nov 2010 elections.

Which makes me think it will not happen. The "sky is falling" soon is how the controllers maintain their hold on people.... herd it hundreds of times over the last 3 years.

If the economic sky actually fell it might be the best thing that ever happened in the long term & and for restoring economic independence.

If the bottom drops out of the Economy (like worse case scenario) that means jobs are gone, there is no more money, there will looting and rioting in the streets. Rape gangs, death squads, Militias trying to create there own kingdom.. All while American troops are away, forign troops will be called in America will be no more.... As Americas economy bottoms out other econmies will do the same... One Worl dGovernment.

Yeah... the hindenberg omen worked before the mutual funds got into the game with massive trades...or at least more trades than even a mega millionare could accomplish....


but then the era of bohemoth agencies like Murrell & GoldmanSachs, etc... These names changed the market complexion with programs
designed for High-Frequency-Trading (HFT)
thus multi billion shares traded every day...where only perhaps only 52% of the 'trades' were actual transfers of shares from one owner to another

Then... the 'hindenberg omen' lost more face, became antiquated... because the same primary-dealer firms (that became 'banks')
are engaged in front-trading stocks from the knowledge they gain from the confidential sale/buy orders their clients wish these firms to execute on their behalf.....

so the whole idea that there is a gigantic disparity as to stock sales highs/lows is just a numbers game... and strategy parimeter (to make more profits one will bid down the price from its actual intristic worth then sell when proprietary info is 'leaked' to boost the price... IOW the hindenberg disparity is a contrived function... it hold no water any more!

& my explaination has not yet addressed the 'Plunge-Protection-Team'
that is assigned the duty of inserting liquidity into markets under the direction of the FED and a cabal of Treas, & private think-tanker types.


the liquidity injection by the FED ammounts to $2Trn for 2010 &^ another $2Trn in 2011... the plunge protection-team is just trying to maximize the best tax income for the Govt in a collapsing stock market, by proping up stock prices before the great deflation gets underway !


just throwing a few more crumbs of wheat to the gooses & ducks,
have a nice day






[edit on 20-8-2010 by St Udio]

Originally posted by St Udio

just throwing a few more crumbs of wheat to the gooses & ducks,
have a nice day

Thanks and I'll like to respond, but you've made my brain hurt

Good day, sir.

Suppose the bottom falls out: Natural resources would still remain. Human knowledge and talent would not change. The only thing that would change would be the way resources are dispersed which doens't necessarily have to be a bad thing.

Economics is about perception as much as anything else. Back in the old days a priest would cut out a chickens guts and read them on an Altar. Now-a-days we have economists.