War Game Shows Dangers of Attacking Iran

War Game Shows Dangers of Attacking Iran

www.military.com

WASHINGTON - Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how unintended consequences can spin out of control:

With diplomacy failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by years.

But what happens next isn't pretty.

(visit the link for the full news article)

This is an insightful article written by McClatchy Press writers after reviewing a study a subsidiary of the Brookings Institute conducted on War Games with Iran.

The end result is that a ‘quick’ strike on Iran’s suspected nuclear facilities by Israel not only exasperates a presently perceived widening rift between Israel and the United States but leads to Iran mining Persian Gulf Shipping Lanes and sending the price of oil through the roof, disrupting supplies and dealing a severe blow to an already devastated world economy.

This likely scenario isn’t the byproduct of an ATS Member’s gifted mind but rather the most prestigious think tank in the USA and coincidentally mirrors what I have been cautioning people for months.

The War Game Study then goes on to conclude that the United States would have to drastically reinforce its Middle Eastern Forces and enter yet another long and costly protracted war with Iran with oil prices hovering at prices likely to cause a world wide economic collapse.

So for all you froggy members out there falling for all the propaganda yelling jump, jump now, you might want to really consider “looking before you leap”.


www.military.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I like how they do not involve China or Russia...
Cause, you know, they don't want to scare anyone.

The U.S. president and his National Security Council try to keep the crisis from escalating. That sours U.S.-Israeli relations, already stressed by the fact that Israel didn't inform Washington in advance of the strike. The White House tries to open a channel for talks with Iran, but is rejected.

Instead, Iran attacks Israel, both directly and through its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It misinterprets U.S. actions as weakness and mines the Straits of Hormuz, the world's chief oil artery. That sparks a clash and a massive U.S. military reinforcement in the Persian Gulf.

This recent war game conducted at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, part of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a center-left think tank, appears to dampen hopes for a simple solution to Iran's real-world nuclear challenge.

The lesson is "once you start this, it's really hard to stop it," said Kenneth Pollack, a former White House and CIA official who oversaw the simulation.

And a lesson we should all be familiar with from our decade long experience in Iraq and Afghanistan where Americans are still making their way home in body bags every day from.

reply to post by ProtoplasmicTraveler


hail george bush no wonder he was looking into earth penetrating missiles good old george was right

Originally posted by CanadianDream420
I like how they do not involve China or Russia...
Cause, you know, they don't want to scare anyone.

Honestly my friend I don’t think China or Russia has the real military assets to compete in a protracted Middle East War.

They don’t have significant ground bases like do us the U.S., they don’t have well developed supply lines like us, they don’t have the same heavy cargo lifting, shipping or troop transport capacity that we do and since we control all the local oil except for Iran’s keeping their planes and ships fueled day in and day out gets problematic.

China and Russia in many ways are paper tigers, they can lob some missiles, at best conduct some limited air strikes but they truly lack the logistical capability to go toe to toe with the U.S. Military in a protracted struggle.

China and Russia’s best offense/defense is just letting us bankrupt ourselves completely financially and morally in the endeavors in the Middle East which we are in fact well on our way to doing.

Iran though will be fighting for it's sovereignty and based on their protracted decade long war with Iraq in the eighties its safe to assume that they will actually fight quite long and hard.

Well first off Proto.

I didn't know if you were aware of it or not but this topic has been posted numerous times already here at ATS. I'd post links to them but I'm too lazy this morning to look them up.

Second...

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler
And a lesson we should all be familiar with from our decade long experience in Iraq and Afghanistan where Americans are still making their way home in body bags every day from.

You do realize the War in Iraq for the US is pretty much over right?
Is the War Over?

Independent reporter Michael Yon has spent more time in Iraq embedded with combat soldiers than any other journalist in the world, and a few days ago he boldly declared the war over:

Barring any major and unexpected developments (like an Israeli air strike on Iran and the retaliations that would follow), a fair-minded person could say with reasonable certainty that the war has ended. A new and better nation is growing legs. What's left is messy politics that likely will be punctuated by low-level violence and the occasional spectacular attack. Yet, the will of the Iraqi people has changed, and the Iraqi military has dramatically improved, so those spectacular attacks are diminishing along with the regular violence. Now it's time to rebuild the country, and create a pluralistic, stable and peaceful Iraq. That will be long, hard work. But by my estimation, the Iraq War is over. We won. Which means the Iraqi people won.

I’m reluctant to say “the war has ended,” as he did, but everything else he wrote is undoubtedly true. The war in Iraq is all but over right now, and it will be officially over if the current trends in violence continue their downward slide. That is a mathematical fact.

If you doubt it, look at the data.

Security incidents, or attacks, are at their lowest level in four years. Civilian deaths are down by almost 90 percent since General Petraeus’ counterinsurgency “surge” strategy went into effect. High profile attacks, or explosions, are down by 80 percent in the same time period. American and Iraqi soldiers suffer far fewer casualties than they have for years. Ethno-sectarian deaths from Iraq’s civil war plunged all the way down to zero in May and June 2008.

Yon is braver than the rest of us for declaring the war over, but it’s important to understand that there are no final battles in counterinsurgencies and it’s impossible to pinpoint the exact dates when wars like this end. The anti-Iraqi insurgency – a war-within-a-war – really is effectively over.

CCTV-China.com

Obama later said the government is increasing US troops in Afghanistan, while training Afghan Security Forces so they can begin to take the lead in July of 2011, and then US troops can begin to return home. He also stated clearly that America's war in Iraq is over.

"As we take the fight to al Qaeda, we are responsibly leaving Iraq to its people. As a candidate, I promised that I would end this war, and that is what I am doing as President. We will have all of our combat troops out of Iraq by the end of this August. We will support the Iraqi government as they hold elections, and continue to partner with the Iraqi people to promote regional peace and prosperity. But make no mistake: this war is ending, and all of our troops are coming home."

New Name for Iraq Mission Meets With Criticism from Left

Gates wrote in a memo exclusively obtained by ABC News that by changing the name at the same time as the change of mission -- the scheduled withdrawal of U.S. combat troops -- the US is sending "a strong signal" that "our forces are operating under a new mission."

They are operating under a new mission because the war is over.
The Combat divisions are coming home. There hasn't been any real fighting in Iraq in almost two years. My son came back in March of last year he said the same thing. There have been many many sectarian bombings and killings in other words Iraqi Sunni and Iraqi Shia killing each other but for the US the war is done.

The reason for the name change is because the Combat troops are leaving because there is not much in the way of combat going on. US troops have been held up on bases for a while now they don't patrol it's pretty much over for the US. There is a new Government and the Iraqis are focused on each other and their Government.

The US invasion didn't create the sectarian conflict. Research Sunni and Shia history.

Sectarian Violence

Gunmen in Iraq have shot dead a family of eight and beheaded some of the bodies, officials say, amid a wave of pre-election violence.

The gunmen killed the family, who were reportedly Shia Muslims living in a majority Sunni area just outside the capital, Baghdad, early on Monday.

As far as the OP goes...

Yes, it would be a political disaster for the US/West at the present time. However IF and When Iran developed Nukes some will feel it will be too late to do anything about it and that the Hawks in Washington, London and the EU were right.

Honestly my friend I don’t think China or Russia has the real military assets to compete in a protracted Middle East War.

Ehh, you can walk from those countries to the middle east in a few weeks. By bike, it would take a few days. By car, ehh, like a day. By plane, a couple hours. With a supersonic jet, an hour or less.

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler
Honestly my friend I don’t think China or Russia has the real military assets to compete in a protracted Middle East War.

Yea, Russia is too intertwined with the EU to retaliate against NATO and China has been stalling on the adding of Iran to the China/Russia security group..

Everyone's positioning themselves for an attack..

For it to work, Israel will have to attack the Nuclear sites while the US strikes the Iranian positions simultaneously in the Gulf so it cannot be mined..

U.S. isn't going to go to war with Iran, despite that, this quote from the article is remarkable:

Some members of the "Israeli" team nonetheless felt that setting back Iran's nuclear program "was worth it, even given what was a pretty robust response," said one participant. He asked that his name not be used, because under the game's ground rules, participants are supposed to remain anonymous.

I wonder if ATS would ever need a thread where if anybody posts to it that everybody automatically comes up anonymous. It would surely need to be heavily moderated, yet kinda makes an impact on "war games" and "deny ignorance."

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler

So for all you froggy members out there falling for all the propaganda yelling jump, jump now, you might want to really consider “looking before you leap”.

Hey hey hey - Don't go lumping all frogs in that basket. Some of us know that's the key to our survival.

Another thing I've learned in my life among the Lilly pads. Sometimes its a lot easier to jump in than it is to jump out!!

They could look back to 'nam to realize that. If that is too far back all they'd have to do is look at how Iraq and Afghanistan have played out.

reply to post by SLAYER69

You do realize the War in Iraq for the US is pretty much over right?

Pretty much over is what? Kind of like being a little pregnant.

Let's stop for a pause for some of Proto's homespun wisdom.

Don't count your chickens until the eggs are hatched...

and

It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

One thing is for sure we hve not built the largest most expensive U.S. Embassy ever constructed in Bagdhad because the U.S. is rushing out of Iraq.

Nothing like a cup of refreshing kool aide in the morning...it smells like victory!

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler
It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

True, and even with all the U.S. soldiers right on two borders of Iran, and even in Iran, we don't here any singing from either side.

Iran probably just say something like, "hey, stick around, you get to shoot down a few more UAVs for target practice."

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler
One thing is for sure we hve not built the largest most expensive U.S. Embassy ever constructed in Bagdhad because the U.S. is rushing out of Iraq.

Yup they'll quarter 100000 Combat troops in it.

All good things have to come to end someday.


It seems to me that many here want the conflict to continue. The problem with that is in Iraq the only real conflicts going on are between Iraqis. Good, Bad or Indifferent.

It's over deal with it.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Some people just cant seem to get past the fact the war is over and we won the war. I mean look at them Slayer they were wishing and hoping for an American Defeat, but hey We pulled it off.



[edit on 23-2-2010 by poedxsoldiervet]

Originally posted by poedxsoldiervet


Some people just can seem to get past the fact the war is over and we won the war.

I'm just curious.

Who did you defeat?

nvm, irrelevant

[edit on 23-2-2010 by LadySkadi]

Originally posted by Sean48

Originally posted by poedxsoldiervet


Some people just cant seem to get past the fact the war is over and we won the war.

I'm just curious.

Who did you defeat?

I was in Iraq I fought there. So it is much of a victory to for me...

2003-2004 Saddams Army and Foriegn Fighters... Defeated..

2006-2007 The Surge baby it worked...

reply to post by LadySkadi


No need to duck for cover, I am very Much anti-iraq war. Hell I am anti-war period, But I understand the need for it. Every Soldier who has any sense is anti-war.



[edit on 23-2-2010 by poedxsoldiervet]

reply to post by poedxsoldiervet


I understand. And I'm very glad that the whole situation "seems" to be winding down and coming to a close. Iraq needs to be given the space (and support if needed, but only if needed) to come into their own. Glad to see that may be finally happening.



*the duck for cover bit, was in regards to Obama, just a little dig...