Alert - Imminent STock Market Crash

Originally posted by Beancounter72
reply to post by OBE1

 

I will grant you that Prechter doesn't have a great track record on gold. But he does with equities, bonds and other commodities. Since this thread was talking about a stock market crash, I'll stand by my opinion of Prechter. He has written over a dozen books on Elliott Wave Theory and it's implications for not just financial markets but also for non-financial aspects of society. Has your Elliott Wave guy done that?

I fail to see a meaningful correlation between writing books , and successful market timing.

If Prechter was wrong on Gold over the past decade...then it's axiomatic that he was also wrong on the dollar. No , despite his talent , Alf Field hasn't written dozens of books on wave theory , but the fact that Prechter has , and Alf was able to pick-up WT and beat him severly at his own game , only serves to highlight Prechter's weakness...primarily his deflationary bias , and his failure to appreciate Gold's [non-commodity] currency status as it reacts to both inflationary & deflationary pressures.

A number of timers have correctly called the major market tops/bottoms/turns across the past ten years , some well known , others not so much...several with a greater degree of accuracy than Prechter. For all the bluster , and in light of his less than stellar record , people actually wonder why Prechter still receives a fair amount of press ? Simply put , the MSFM has a very short-term memory for failure...I mean look at Cramer's die-hard following ?

$400 Gold ? , multi year dollar rally ? commodities bear market ? Bold predictions. Much depends on when the Fed can begin raising rates. Consider the debt issues currently roiling the EU...soon to appear closer to home...the looming surge in US mortgage resets/RE foreclosures...rising unemployment...and realistically it could be quite awhile I'm afraid. In all practicality , how does the Fed drain ? Where's the market for over $2 trillion in toxic assets distorting it's balance sheet ? I could go on but my fingers would fatigue.

Granted , market timing is a difficult task even under less volatile conditions , but the tools of the trade remain highly subjective , and only as good as their practitioners. Across time , most traders applying Wave Theory , Dow Theory etc would enjoy the same success rate if they simply flipped a coin (approx 50/50). Go figure.

After all is said and done , there exists a very short list of market timers capable of leading their subscriber flock safely through the wilderness. You favor Prechter ? Grab a subscription and let me know how it turns-out for you across the longer term.

I'd be interested.

LEADING INVESTOR WARNS THAT THE POUND IS GOING INTO A TAILSPIN

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers has predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy and heralding the beginning of a downturn that would make the recent economic crisis look tame in comparison.

“Other currencies aren’t strong and the Euro has real problems, with cracks much wider than Greece beginning to show,” Rogers said.

“But it’s the Pound that’s most vulnerable. In real terms, it’s already devalued against virtually every currency barring the Zimbabwean dollar and it’s especially exposed over the weeks running up to the UK election. In a basket of currencies, the Pound is potentially a basket case. And that will put Britain in an extremely bad position for the shakedown.”

“The last few months have seen a ‘false bounce’, shorn up by massive short-term injections of government underwriting,” Rogers, the former business partner of George Soros, said.

“But it can’t last. We’ve been applying temporary sticking plasters, not long-term cures. Later this year we’ll see the start of the real recession, with more Lehman-scale disasters and a fallout which won’t stop until the underlying malaise is genuinely cured.” he added.

Rogers was quoted in a press release ahead of a keynote appearance at next month’s Global Trading Day seminar in Westminster along with investment advisor Dr Marc Faber and British trader Vince Stanzione.

Prominent Investor: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks FOTR 340x1692

The British economy is facing a “double dip” after January figures put the idea of a recovery firmly on the backburner.

Rogers’ sentiments echo those of Swiss Bank UBS, which this week speculated that there could be a run on the pound if the government too aggressively tackles Britain’s huge deficit, projected to reach £178bn this year.

Last week, Sterling hit a nine month low against the dollar, falling to $1.05, and slumping beyond parity for the first time against the euro.

An announcement yesterday by Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, that the bank was ready to print more money and “do whatever seems appropriate”, sent the currency sinking once more.

Sterling fell sharply, from $1.5529 at 9.13am, just before King began speaking, to $1.5398 at 10.30am, when he finished giving evidence to MPs.

The stark downturn has led Jim Rogers and Marc Faber to predict a currency crash foreshadowing a full scale global “shakedown”.

reply to post by aristocrat2


I think you need to see this.
CAUGHT: The Man That Impersonated Jim Rogers And Called For The Pound To Collapse

Actually, Jim Rogers didn't say that the pound will collapse in the very near future...

It was all made up by this guy, to the right, whose company put out the following press release as what appears to have been a publicity stunt:

FT Alphaville (Pic & Quotes):

Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks, Predicts Billionaire Financier Jim Rogers

February 25, 2010 – Press Dispensary – The UK Pound is on the brink of a collapse which will herald a downturn worse than 2008/9, it could well happen within weeks and the British government is powerless to prevent it. And this in turn will foreshadow a global economic winter that could come before the end of 2010 and make the last two years seem like a mild spring day.

The rest is here link

Just posted in the last hour. DI

Guys like that should be thrown in jail.

Back to the topic at hand if you fire up a ten year chart on the S&P500 an argument might be made, IMO, for a declining head and shoulders top.

Originally posted by leo123
Guys like that should be thrown in jail.

Back to the topic at hand if you fire up a ten year chart on the S&P500 an argument might be made, IMO, for a declining head and shoulders top.

Especially if he had short positions in Forex currency markets, but unfortunately, most everything we are seeing now, in the stock markets, is bank manipulation of one kind or another...

All that TARP money supposedly to bail out the banks so they would continue lending, ended up in the stock market so their pals could dump their pension stocks...