Alert - Imminent STock Market Crash

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by aristocrat2

 

it must be nice to type whatever you want and then not have to be responsible for it

Yep, it's absolutely fabulous!

Anyhow, we'll see if I'll right over the next few weeks.

Originally posted by Bicent76
reply to post by aristocrat2

 

Interesting fellow you are.

Investing in Michigan, are you. Why not off the Pacific, coast of tejauana?:

WIth land in Detroit down to about $500 or less a plot...

- The gain should be more
- I can build a portfolio cheaply not dependent on just one site.
- High profitable land assembly is really easy.
- I can easily send a friend over the border to cut the lawn if anyone gets petty in city hall.
- My girlfriend's ancestors founded Detroit a couple of centuries ago.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Didn't I read that you still live with your parents? Maybe you were joking, but making fun of someone buying up a .5 acre here and there, is rather arrogant, since the world is in a precarious situation right now, and really there are so many serious situations teetering that a stock market crash would only be the beginning of our problems. Try death, destruction, war, starvation....a lot of things could go wrong in the blink of an eye.
And history does seem to repeat itself.
I don't mean to insult, but you are so overly confident in your algorithms and charts that you forget human error it seems.

reply to post by SunnyDee


Thats if I did make errors!



And yes I do, tough world out there! lol - that and other reasons it's worthless to discuss right now

And this guy is nothing but lying to you if you haven't figured all this out yet, but continue to be amazed by his claims of gaming the tin market and cornering the real estate market in decimated urban areas, its quite the story indeed

The Head and Shoulders pattern that you cite is a form of technical analysis that is subject to interpretation.

There is another form of technical analysis called Elliott Wave Theory which has a remarkable trackrecord of predicting major trend changes in stock prices(and other financial markets too).

It correctly predicted the 1966 high, the bull market of the 80's and 90's, the '87 crash, and the 1999/2000 high(depending on which index you're looking at). It's now predicting a major bear market that could also include a crash(but crash or not, the markets are headed down big time).

It's named after R. N. Elliott, who figured out back in the 30's that stock markets had patterns and that patterns were the same shape at all degrees of scale. This property of stock prices is now called a fractal and was confirmed by chaos theory in the 80's so Elliott was way ahead of his time.

The basic principle behind Elliott Wave Theory is that changes in mass social mood influences events, not the other way around. All the discussion about possible financial or military disasters causing the markets to crash has got it backwards. Market drops will preceed major news events. Look at 9/11. The markets fell BEFORE the attack and rallied afterwards. The fallacy about news affecting stock prices can be seen quite clearly by reading the explanation for each day''s stock results. Quite often, stocks will drop one day because of some financial news (ie. Europe's debt problem) and then the next day go up inspite of the same financial news(ie. 'markets shrugged off worries about the European debt problem'). How do the financial news agencies know that? Did they canvass thousands of investors who all said. "I was worried yesterday about European debt and sold but today I'm not worried so I'm buying"?

In case you're wondering about Elliott Wave's long term prediction, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will eventually (in3-5 years) drop back below 1,000. That's ONE THOUSAND!!!. The DJIA is around 10,000 now so we're talking about a 90% drop. Can't happen you say? Look at 1929 to 1932 when stocks finally bottomed out. The percentage decline from peak to trough was around 90%. It's happened before and it will happen again.

Wave theory also says gold will drop too.

The best Elliott Wave Theory site is
www.elliottwave.com...

[edit on 9-2-2010 by Beancounter72]

reply to post by Beancounter72


Very interesting site. Seems the thread has turned into a stock market wannabe player spitting contest but this was a very useful link. Thanks for that.

[edit on 9-2-2010 by antonia]

The Stock Market is a fools game for lazy people.

Invest in tangible items and investments that you personally control.

But if people want to put their hard earned money in other peoples hands, then you have to except all the consequences.

Personally, I have zero in the stock market now for over 10 years and my emotional state has been stable for over 10 years.

"First Time Shame On You, Second Time Shame On Me"

my take on what's been said in this thread

everyone is arguing about how far past the 'sell by' date this tuna sandwhich is.... implicitly though everyone seems to agree it's out of date....

The markets will do what they will do

have fun and deal with the doom if it happens, you could assemble the best survival kit in the world, doesn't mean the you will be able to keep hold of it though if the SHTF

Originally posted by aristocrat2
On this basis, a crash is likely at some time in February-March and in May 2010.

With Britain required to go to thepolls by 3rd June 2010, some things possibly able to crash the market...

1. Tuesday's vote in UK House of Commons. If the vote for proportional representation is carried, it means that if the Tories don't outright win, Labour and Liberals would combine in a post General Election to keep Labour in power. Result? UNending borrowing and bond sales. With that ahead, investors in UK bonds might start selling hard, causing a fiasco at Government refinancing and a sharp de facto rise in yields, resulting in a crash.

As far as I'm aware this will not happen. Why?

Because today's vote sets the ball rolling for a new voting system to be voted on. Having passed the Commons it will move to the Lords (Congress/Senate... rah,rah). All this STV discussion is designed to do is to lay the groundwork for something that might be in place for the election held after this one. It is not PR, it is STV and U.K. will be voting First-Past-the-Post in 2010.

The rest of your ideas are interesting however...

Originally posted by aristocrat2
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

This is not uncharter territory.

This happened ni 1789AD when the entirity of France had her savings in the King of France's bonds. Debt levels reached the equivalent of $8,000,000,000 in prices in those days and yields skyrocketed to 20% UNable to pay the interst, the National Assembly refused new money and taxes to allow refinancing on 11th July 1789. King then defaults on debt. BOnds collapsed and most of the businesses in France follwoed within hours. Riots over the weekend. Total stock market crashon the MOnday and Bastille stormed ont he Tuesday.

Same thing in 1345AD. England defaults on its debts to Bardi and Peruzzi causing the biggest crash in history. Totla economic wipeout in Milan, Florance and Venice. Riots, civil wars follwoed. Impoverished city states closed hospitals and schools. The bubonic plague that had been introduced by the Bardi and Peruzzi international trade was then able to spread unchecked. 60 years later, the world population was 30% less and the survivors were living in abject poverty.

I didn't know all the specifics of the French Revolution, it sure matches what is happening in the US. As with the french the US is sucking up capital from across the world in order to fund itself because we don't make enough or have enough savings in order to tax it for funding of the govt. Heck our expenditures are so big that there isn't enough money to fund them, so we have to borrow from the rest of the world. This process cannot go on much longer, and the rest of the world and the govt. knows it. The US will split apart into a bunch of areas when the central govt. doesn't have any ability to stop this mess. Of course they have a military, but guess what the military have families and exteneded families in this mess. You might see whole units or people disserting just to protect their family and loved ones.

Also if I haven't you didn't read my post about the market on another forum yesterday. CNBC pundit Rick Santelli was on live a couple of weeks ago talking about the bond market and he made a comment that shocked me, it shocked me because I'm surprised that they allowed him to say it. Essentially he said that a big direct buyer was buying bonds for many months now during every auction, and the rumor is that it's the Fed buying the treasuries and bonds and trying to hide it from the public. What this is called is monetization no matter what. I went to the CNBC website to see the video clip and they never posted it on their website, but I was able to find it on youtube and will post a link. This is important because this shows what was quoted in the international news some months ago that China has curtailed buying more treasuries. And the powers that be are doing everything they can to hide and obfuscate and deny what is in our face. And that is we are printing money to buy our debt because nobody wants the dollar anymore.

They govt. and the politicians have to by hook or crook keep this game going because they know that the american people won't accept the severe (and I do mean severe) austerity programs and cuts that would be required to protect the dollar (it's to late anyway because there are just to many dollars and the world economy demands another form of trading currency) and our economy. Both the right and the left have made so many promises that they are out on the planck and can't go back the way they came. Many believe it or not would rather jump off and swim to some shore in order so they don't have to go back onto the ship of a country to explain or see what there actions and their co-patriots actions have done to the country/ship of state. Imagine that right wing white/grey/blue color worker who listen to Rush Limbaugh or the left wing it's no one's fault lets just pray etc. etc. (for the right also). Imagine that they find out that they can't buy food with any of the green pieces of paper they have. Imagine they go to the bank and find out that your safety deposit box can't be opened even with somebody like an IRS official there, because what they haven't told you until later is that the govt. has took all the safety deposit boxes and combed for precious metals and things of worth (it won't be like the depression this time, it will be 10 times worse).

Everything in this country runs off of some form of currency, and who will make the determinate of what is good and what is bad currency on the local level when the green paper isn't working or is hyperinflated like the Weirmer Republic. And to add insult to injury the checks from the govt. that more than half the population of the US get in some form or the other don't show up, what do people do. They riot, the go crazy, they are in shock. Because the deal that was struck by the right was that we will support you as long as whatever you do is done to THOSE PEOPLE and benefit our group. And for the left they will support you as long as whatever you do it benefits MY group. What it will look like as first will be what happened in argentina back in 1999 where there economy imploded and middle and upper class people found themselves overnight poor and destitute.

Addendum:

Also I checked on the England default and I will post an old article that talks about it from the perspective of the 1995 Mexican currency crisis and Orange County bankruptcy. It's funny that the Venitians and bankers of that time where doing the exact same thing that is being done today. We are going to repeat history and it's not going to be nice.

Information concerning Greece, earlier had the markets swooning that a deal was made to loan it billions of Euros but that turned out not to be the case. The Major European countries haven't made a decision, and I don't blame them. Greeces debt is 113% of their GDP which was back in 2008 349 billion dollars a year, and it's being reported that Greece needs at least 51 billion Euros to fill the budget gap for this year. The problem is that many of those countries don't believe or truly trust what is being said by the Greek govt., all that 51 billion Euros does is to push the problem down the road another year. They still have other debt to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars that they have to service and where is the money going to come for that. Once Germany, Britian, France and a few others start to bailout Greece, the rest of the PIIGS will want to get bailed out also and they don't have the money.

www.youtube.com...

en.wikipedia.org...

neithercorp.us...

myprops.org...

[edit on 9-2-2010 by hoghead cheese]

[edit on 9-2-2010 by hoghead cheese]

[edit on 9-2-2010 by hoghead cheese]

aristocrat2
quote
1. Tuesday's vote in UK House of Commons. If the vote for proportional representation is carried, it means that if the Tories don't outright win, Labour and Liberals would combine in a post General Election to keep Labour in power. Result? UNending borrowing and bond sales. With that ahead, investors in UK bonds might start selling hard, causing a fiasco at Government refinancing and a sharp de facto rise in yields, resulting in a crash.

I can assure you there is no such vote in the UK House of Commons on Tuesday.
This post is piffle, its bogus.
There is absolutely nothing going before the H of C to change Britain's voting systems before an election takes place.
Impossible.
I would advise caution to anyone who may be taking this absolute lie seriously.
What your motivation is I cannot imagine.

Originally posted by Beancounter72
Wave theory also says gold will drop too.

The best Elliott Wave Theory site is
www.elliottwave.com...

Sorry , but Wave Theory doesn't say Gold will drop...Prechter does.

Are you aware that Robert Prechter (the site you linked) has been consistently wrong on Gold for the past ten years ?

The Prechter Gold "Buy" Signal Has Been Triggered


Like all schools of TA , Wave Theory is only as good as the practiotioner.

Elliott Wave Gold Update 23
By Alf Field

I count Robert Prechter as a friend, so my purpose was not to disparage his views. I was more interested in setting up some parameters or guidelines that would help determine the likely outcome if the gold price exceeded those levels. I concluded that if the gold price dropped below $309, the odds would favour Prechter’s view. If it pushed above $382, then my bullish view would probably be favoured.

This was more than just an academic exercise because in 2002 I had made a major change to our family investments, moving some 40% of the capital into gold and silver bullion plus a selection of gold and silver mining shares. If Prechter’s view prevailed, our family finances would have taken a serious drubbing.

Full Text

In the final analysis (pun intended) Alf prevailed...Prechter and the Prechterites have literally become a laughing stock (pun intended).

Originally posted by Realtruth
The Stock Market is a fools game for lazy people.

Making a living as a trader requires tremendous effort and skill. Are you aware that 90% of those that even make the attempt...fail ? and you won't find the 10% that succeed posting on ATS 24/7...they haven't got the time.

Next time someone blows hot air over the big profits they're turning , ask them to post a screenshot of those successful trades...

you'll soon see what I mean

reply to post by aristocrat2


probably true. several authors have been urging people to get out of stocks and buy gold/silver for at least 2 years now.

I admit, I know next to nothing about the ins-n-outs of the stock market and my view may be over-simplistic...but it all seems to me like gambling on a VERY slow roulette wheel. it all seems to be governed by general emotional states and it just feels like a pyramid scheme. You're ionvesting in perceived value of the moment, not real (tangible) valiue like gold, etc.

I invested 10K in Viagra when it first came out...in a very short time, my investment was "worth" 85K and if I'd have sold it would have received the money...but I listened to advice to let it ride...and I lost the gain and then half of my investment.

So, it occurred to me that it was just like slow-motion gambling with value based on the prevailing mood, not actual value.

its all about the 22 march and the georgia guidestones, me thinks, and the fact there is a big training exercise going on with the grand finale towards the end of march.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
The biggest problem you are going to have is number one it is not logarithmic, so your results are way skewed. Actually totally worthless. Try again with a LOG chart.

It is. Usually not on mondays and fridays. Those days are very "emotional"...
Begin of the week...
Last day of the week.. Last minute transfers and all that.

[edit on 9/2/2010 by digalog]

reply to post by aristocrat2


How do you see a triple top? A triple top or bottom means the peaks are at the same level. This is simply not the case with a monthly DOW chart. First top is at or around 12,000 in 2000ish with the next top at 14,000 in mid 2007. There is no third top.

The dow is currently exhibiting only one chart formation. That would be a typical ABC down trend... We are about to see the beginning of B.
What can clue us in as to it's direction would be a few key indicators, since predicting an ABC downtrend is risky when the beginning of B is forming.

Slow Stochs are currently heavily overbought. RSI is midland and MACD is wanting to continue bearish after a headfake.

I wouldn't be calling for an absolute pitfall drop.. But a continued downtrend at a measured pace looks in order.

I have not seen ONE indicator or market prediction tool that takes CORRUPTION into consideration.
What is the corruption factor? I think, right now, we have a corruption factor of, say, 90% or so. Honest people have fled the market, and the thieves are stealing from the thieves.
How long can THAT last?
I urge people to take a leak on the stock market and look to main street. Break wind in the general direction of Wal-Mart and shop at the small business that you typically ignore. The economy will recover, and your children might actually be convinced by some slick trader to trust it again.
Only because, kids don't listen to their parents.

reply to post by Beancounter72


When the Elliot Wave is combined with a long run head-and-shoulders pattern, it's grim!

IN actuality, the first work on the Elliot Wave was actually done by Kondratieff many years earlier. As Kondratieff was Food Minister in the Russian Provisional Government, it wold be ironic if Kerensky's Government would turn out to be the most intellectually enlightened in history!

A central plank of Kondratieff is this, history repeats itself in a 57 to 59 year cycle as that is the point after which the people from the previous cycle have just died and are no longer around to say, "STOP! This is dangerous".

Consider the following...

2001 - 59 = 1942 ...when Fascism was at its height.

Of course, longevity has probably extended this 59 year basis, but the concept is there.

On this basis, the hippies will be back in style in about 10 to 15 years.

This work itself, however, is linked to the "Pyramid Theory" from ancient Egypt.

Peopel working at granaries notice that there was a rhythm to levels in the grain stores. Sometimes there was a surplus, ie a conical pyramid, and sometimes there was a deficit ie a conical dent in the grain store where it had been drained off below. The theory runs that the height of the surplus TIMES its duration is equivalent to the depth of the dent and its duration.

So, a big surplus will be followed by either a little dent for a long while or a deep dent for just a brief time.