Originally posted by Beancounter72
reply to post by OBE1
I will grant you that Prechter doesn't have a great track record on gold. But he does with equities, bonds and other commodities. Since this thread was talking about a stock market crash, I'll stand by my opinion of Prechter. He has written over a dozen books on Elliott Wave Theory and it's implications for not just financial markets but also for non-financial aspects of society. Has your Elliott Wave guy done that?
I fail to see a meaningful correlation between writing books , and successful market timing.
If Prechter was wrong on Gold over the past decade...then it's axiomatic that he was also wrong on the dollar. No , despite his talent , Alf Field hasn't written dozens of books on wave theory , but the fact that Prechter has , and Alf was able to pick-up WT and beat him severly at his own game , only serves to highlight Prechter's weakness...primarily his deflationary bias , and his failure to appreciate Gold's [non-commodity] currency status as it reacts to both inflationary & deflationary pressures.
A number of timers have correctly called the major market tops/bottoms/turns across the past ten years , some well known , others not so much...several with a greater degree of accuracy than Prechter. For all the bluster , and in light of his less than stellar record , people actually wonder why Prechter still receives a fair amount of press ? Simply put , the MSFM has a very short-term memory for failure...I mean look at Cramer's die-hard following ?
$400 Gold ? , multi year dollar rally ? commodities bear market ? Bold predictions. Much depends on when the Fed can begin raising rates. Consider the debt issues currently roiling the EU...soon to appear closer to home...the looming surge in US mortgage resets/RE foreclosures...rising unemployment...and realistically it could be quite awhile I'm afraid. In all practicality , how does the Fed drain ? Where's the market for over $2 trillion in toxic assets distorting it's balance sheet ? I could go on but my fingers would fatigue.
Granted , market timing is a difficult task even under less volatile conditions , but the tools of the trade remain highly subjective , and only as good as their practitioners. Across time , most traders applying Wave Theory , Dow Theory etc would enjoy the same success rate if they simply flipped a coin (approx 50/50). Go figure.
After all is said and done , there exists a very short list of market timers capable of leading their subscriber flock safely through the wilderness. You favor Prechter ? Grab a subscription and let me know how it turns-out for you across the longer term.
I'd be interested.
