reply to post by PuterMan
Most impressed by these graphs.
It's so much easier to see the trends when it's presented this way. And as you say, they help to deflect some
of the doomsayers, who even on several threads here on ATS are saying that the number of quakes has increased dramatically and this means that
yadda yadda yadda...
I have had to get stitches in my tongue from biting it so hard lately. Some of you here might have been suffering the same affliction. On some
threads, nothing we or anyone else might say in respect of the fact
that long-term data does not
show a dramatic increase in quake
activity and that short-term data is much too variable to establish trends, has had much effect on the doom and gloom merchants or those who seem to
hang on their every word.
It's a pity to see that such an attitude prevails in spite of all attempts to inform to the contrary, but if people need their disaster fix then I
guess they won't be swayed. Okay, we might not be experts on the subject but at least we study a little and do more than just fall all over whatever
comes up on the msm or good ol' webbot. (Bless its little cyber socks.) At least we know where to find some basic data and how to interpret it -- and
to know that there is
What is most bothersome (to me, at least), is those on some threads who seem to want
a massive increase in disasters for their own reasons, and
who apparently have lost sight of the fact that disasters mean death, suffering and misery for many people. That is, they've lost sight of it if they
ever really got it in the first place. They also seem to be living in a world where this bad stuff only ever happens to other people, whereas the
bitter truth is that those people need not always be nameless and faceless, but could one day be themselves or their families and friends.
It's like they think they're watching a movie or something.
You know, we had a complaint on the Yellowstone thread a few days ago. A member said in so many words that it was "too long" and we should start a
new thread so it would be on the main page on ATS. And that's what we're up against, we and many others here who actually want to improve our
knowledge and learn from one another. It's this abhorrent idea that news is only important if it's on the front page of Yahoo! or CNN -- or at least
scrolling across the bottom of the damned TV screen.
That's the sort of mentality that bothers me. "The thread's too long," says a member, "Start a new one." It's the Reader's Digest Condensed
mentality -- an atrocious concept. Edit it down, take out the "uninteresting" stuff: I don't have time to read all that
"War and Peace" in a comic book.
"Don't give me data
, give me disaster
People are entertained
by disaster. It's packaged
as entertainment, so cleverly that they even have theme music to go with a graphic,
like CNN did with "The Haiti Earthquake" (somber tones playing in the background).
That kind of cynical direction and manipulation by TV stations sickens me.
This thread is about earthquakes, about reporting where they happen and discussing their possible ramifications. People who want "entertainment"
will doubtless be bored to tears by this thread. We don't predict gloom and doom and say that (insert Deity's name
) is coming soon because
there was a mag 4.4 in California (and yes, that's been claimed on a thread here on ATS), but we do
quite correctly recommend that people in
possible high-risk regions take precautions. That's good horse sense. Berkeley Gal knows. She's told us about the need to be prepared.
I'm even pretty well prepared where I live, and we haven't had a quake over mag 5 in this old city's 1,000-plus years of recorded history.
Does anyone see what I'm getting at? One of the few reasons I have stayed with ATS is because here, there are people who use their good sense and
don't get taken in by every absurd and sometimes even impossible
prediction of impending disaster.
There was the one about a year ago by some guy who joined here to tell us that a psychic he knew (who was always
right!) had had a dream in
which there was high magnitude 9 quake off the coast of China which sent a tsunami many miles inland and killed -- well I can't even recall
how many people. I recall commenting about its unlikelihood, and also stated my humble opinion on the "An Experiment in Alternative Methods in
Earthquake Prediction" thread (another non
-doom-and-gloom thread which has therefore had few trolls) that not only was this quake incredibly
unlikely but that it wouldn't happen within the stated time frame.
Obviously, it didn't happen. But we had members who were seriously
upset by this. They were afraid of what else might happen in other places,
for example. It was very hard to convince people that most likely, the quake wouldn't happen anyway, and that the OP was just trawling for new
customers for his alternative magazine.
I apologize for this long and probably meandering post. In simple terms, I'd like to say thank you to all of you who have kept your heads squarely on
your shoulders, so to speak, who have not run around like Chicken Little and screamed that the sky is falling. I certainly am no genius and don't
claim to know a whole lot, and you have helped me more than you might realize. You and many others here on ATS. I prefer knowledge to ignorance and it
galls me how ignorant I still am, so when I talk about the apparent ignorance of others please don't get me wrong: very often, I'm still a pot
calling a kettle black, and yes, I know it. Which is why I'm glad to be put right when need be.
Sure, I enjoy a laugh, like all of you. I also like some entertainment. But seeing images of real death, real destruction and real human misery, even
on my TV screen and not at first hand, does not entertain me and it never has.
Most often, it moves me to tears.
About earthquakes: I think I've said this before on another thread or two, but for me, seismic activity is something like the weather. I believe
there are cause-and-effect relationships, but it does not have to mean that the greater causes the lesser, as in the case of "dynamic triggering"
that has been observed and acknowledged by science. No, I feel that we need to find the "butterfly in Beijing" effect in all this. Okay, it's only
an intuitive notion and I cannot provide empirical data for it, but I believe it's there, in its own way, and it might be one of the keys to our
The trick is seeing the connections and I don't claim that I can. It took meteorologists literally centuries to develop a fair understanding of
weather's multi-layered and complex interrelationships, and most "weather" happens within a single medium. Quakes could be multi-layered in terms
of their energy interchange and release, and the time factors may also work on several levels. I suspect that we are literally only scratching the
surface of understanding all that at this time.
And that's why I follow earthquakes and even try to predict them from time to time -- on the appropriate thread, I mean. Like you, I'm not doing
this to make money (as I have no website and am not releasing a book or DVD), nor to get a "following" or be "famous" (as very few know who I
really am and that suits me just fine), but simply to try and understand this world of ours a little more, and maybe, just maybe
... One day we
and others of like mind, working together, can use what we have learned to predict these seismic disasters and alleviate some of that terrible
Thank you for reading.