posted on Dec, 4 2009 @ 12:16 PM
Yes, it will seriously damage the Democrats chances of winning the 2010 elections and likely weaken Obama's chances in 2012. Their support in the
last two election cycles was largely based upon an anti-war youth vote and now, he has alienated that base of support. The Democratic base was
already demoralized and this causes further erosion of enthusiasm going into the 2010 mid-terms and I think its very likely that a fair percentage of
the rank-and-file Dems simply aren't going to vote. Compare that to the rising enthusiasm of GOP voters and the likely result is a major Republican
victory next fall.
Obama? We'll just have to wait and see. Three years is a long time in politics (and so is 11 months) but with this Afghanistan surge, I think he
may well have permanently damaged his ability to draw the youth vote in the overwhelming manner that he did in 2008. I think we'll probably see a
more typical 10-15% youth advantage for Obama in 2012 instead of 30%, and I suspect he's going to under perform his 2008 results with every other
age group by a handful of percentage points as well. The net result? He still has a chance, but right now, I think his road to victory will almost
certainly be far more difficult than it was in 2008.