Shock U.S. unemployment report

Shock U.S. unemployment report

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Analysts and economists have been shocked by the September U.S. unemployment report.

The Labor Department revealed Friday that a net 263,000 jobs were lost in September, well above expectations for 175,000 jobs.

The result punctured a gradually improving employment situation, and pushed the unemployment rate in the country to 9.80%, the highest in twenty six years.

(visit the link for the full news article)

With a surprising number of job losses it seems the unemployement rate is rising 'unexpectedly' fast. Although nowheres near the 1933 record rate of 25 %, it is still very concerning to see it climbing at this rate. With such dismal numbers being reported I'd like to see the federal government talk it's way around this one. One thing I'd also like to point out is the difference in the predictions with the actual figures. To me this signals the rate is only going to climb further up. The question is where will it stop?

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(visit the link for the full news article)


Edit to add: U.S. markets shrug off shock unemployment report

Despite hitting a 26 year high in unemployment, U.S. stocks held steady on Friday.

Just an update to add as I thought the reaction was interesting.

[edit on 2-10-2009 by born2BWild]

reply to post by born2BWild


Yeah. I was watching CNN today and they were saying that the new unemployment numbers were surprising and indicated a "slowing of recovery".

And I had to laugh. What recovery?

[edit on 2/10/09 by Morbo the Annihilator]

reply to post by born2BWild


My question is, did they have the proper records keeping ability to really know the unemployment rate in 1933. Computers had not yet been invented, how did they keep track? Also, the real unemployment rate is actually a lot higher because there are a lot of people that aren't counted.

When you include people who are working crappy part time jobs because they can't find full time employment, the real figure is 17%.

Analysts and economists have been shocked...

Then they should be fired and replaced with competent people.

Whoever didn't see this coming or doesn't see near term future rises in unemployment is either blind or has an IQ just above room temperature.
.

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.... well above expectations for 175,000 jobs.

The result punctured a gradually improving employment situation, and pushed the unemployment rate in the country to 9.80%, the highest in twenty six years.

(visit the link for the full news article)

How in the hell could anticipating job losses at 175,000 have been considered an "improving employment situation"

What are these people smoking?

And they are shocked because it went over that number?

Oh, the horror.

Originally posted by finemanm
reply to post by born2BWild

 

My question is, did they have the proper records keeping ability to really know the unemployment rate in 1933.

Thank you for asking that. I wanted to know the same thing. As someone who has already had and lost my employment benefits, I'm apparently now considered "employed" since I'm not counted anymore in the figures.

I did wonder about this in the 1930s as well.

No surprise as far as unemployment goes, all of this is to be expected because

you have a former community organizer and now president that is heading up

the greatest country on Earth.


Obama Never really held a job in corporate America and has to rely on his staff

to call the shots when it comes to this nations failing economy. ^Y^

Who said that we were out of a recession. I can't believe the government saying that we are done with this economic slump. It is going to be years, not months till things are fixed. This is going to be the second great depression.

Mods, we need to move this thread to the conspiracy section, REALLY, the economy is doing fine. The recovery is in full swing. If you do not believe me, ask me.

TPTB think that what is on TV is real and so do the SHEEPLE-baaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Our real unemployment numbers are at 20-35%. The figures they use are all lies. Misemployment, part time, no longer looking, below board-cash jobs-me, etc etc. But the real numbers can never be used or the sheeple will awake to their own idiocy.

THIS IS A DEPRESSION, NOT A RECESSION, THE DOW MEANS NOTHING, THE ECONOMY CANNOT RECOVER WITH NO JOBS, UNLESS OF COURSE YOU INTERPRET THE ECONOMY AS THE BANKS BOTTOM LINE

Originally posted by Gools

Analysts and economists have been shocked...

Then they should be fired and replaced with competent people.

Whoever didn't see this coming or doesn't see near term future rises in unemployment is either blind or has an IQ just above room temperature.
.

wrong and wrong.... and gools you know this....it is option 3 probably high IQ "Establishment SHILL's "

trying to paint a picture of recovery....trying to paint expectations that will get consumers to spend........it is necessary to LIE...DECIEVE be Intellectually dishonest when 70% of the economy is dependent on consumption...

LETS talk about the large amount of workers who were KNOCKED OUT OF LABOR FORCE...i.e unemployment benefits ran out....they are not counted as unemployed or anything anymore.....this is the fuel for social unrest or just plain ole' crime

Unemployment is HIGHER than the early 80's ......but on the positive side i did find two decent part time jobs..so stay determined people

reply to post by Morbo the Annihilator


Its true, they don't count people whose benefits expired because they simply, and wrongfully reclassify you a unwilling to work. They also don't count recent college and high school grads because they were not "employed" in the first place, so they are not considered unemployed.

When you add all the recent grads, all the people whose benefits ran out, and all the people working part time, the real un/under-employment figure is already probably above 20%.

50% off the real number... a 6 year old probably could have given a closer prediction. For me sales were terrible in September, it's hard to imagine it getting much worse but I fear it will. Maybe these so called experts and academics should come down from their ivory towers once in a while and speak to the people in the trenches. It might just help them more accurately predict data.

reply to post by born2BWild


Where will it stop?

It will stop when there are no jobs left except Government Jobs.
I see no other scenario.

Then you will be forced to labor inorder that Government employees can be paid.

reply to post by born2BWild


I totally disagree!! I believe the numbers are pretty friggen CLOSE!! its just how they report the numbers, you know its bad them even giving those numbers as they are, imagine if they reported the REAL numbers, based on what I see and have read in main stream news alone, I would guesstimate the number around 19%

September Unemployment: ACTUAL LOSS 995k

Click link to view Charts:

That's not good - there goes the "second derivative" argument.

Weekly earnings are also down by $1.54, which is bad news too.

But the Household Data is VASTLY worse than reported. Here are the month-over-month changes, and they're in the realm of frightening. (all numbers in thousands)

Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.

Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month.

That's a loss of 995,000 jobs, not 263,000, and the labor force contracted by 1,262,000 people!

The participation rate was absolutely decimated, down 0.6% this last month alone. The people "not in the labor force" rose by a staggering 1,516,000 in the last month.

The government doesn't count people as "unemployed" who have given up and exited the labor force, but as I have repeatedly noted whether the government counts them or not the corner store owner sure as hell does!

The fact of the matter is that nearly 1 million fewer people were working in September as compared to August; there has been absolutely no improvement in that trend whatsoever.

And

Employment: You're SMOKING Green "Shoots"
Click to View Charts:

Notice that employment went to a negative 12-month rate of change right at the start of 2008 - coincidentally, right at the start of the official "start" of the recession.

Also note that the last recession, which began at the end of the first quarter of 2001, also had the rate of change on a 12-month basis go negative at roughly the same time.

(Not-so-coincidentally, you also got a 12 month advance warning of the recession when the trend changed in both cases too. Now you know what one of the indicators I used in my 2008 "Outlook" Ticker in which I said we would enter a formal recession was.....)

I want to to pay particular attention to the bottom of the last recession, which was (officially) 11/01.

Notice that the spike bottom in the first derivative, that is, when the rate of change on a 12 month basis turned positive, was almost exactly when NBER called that recession (in retrospect) "over".

Has the first derivative turned in the table at this point on an annualized basis? NO.

First question: What does this say about the calls that "the recession is over"?

You will also note that in terms of the 12 month rate of change this recession is more than three times as severe in its impact on employment as was the 2001 recession. In fact, "by the numbers" we have 8,236,000 fewer people employed now than we had at the peak in July of 2007.

It is, however, worse than it first appears. Here's the second chart, and this is the chart that, if you're sentient, should be sending cold chills up and down your spine:

I trust Karl Denninger he's incredibly meticulous about his data. The jobs data has actually been far worse than we can imagine if you include how many people are entering "working age" and can't find a job. These people are not counted.

Math doesn't lie! Unless you're the government doing math.

[edit on 3-10-2009 by projectvxn]

Good good , the more jobs lost , the faster the satanic bloodthirsty USA dies

death to america

reply to post by sadchild01


Why are you trolling threads saying these things? Death to America? Why? We the People need a chance to clean our house and mend our fences. We need a chance to see our Republic restored. Only then will the expansionism stop, only then will the wars for profit stop.

Death to America? America is already dead my friend, we the people must bring it back to life.

reply to post by born2BWild


Hey man, I don't know if the U.S. has similar statistical frameworks as Australia, but our government considers you to be employed if you do more than 1 hour a week of paid work!!
That must help their statistics out incredibly.

And most of the people I know who are out of work are vowing never to work for a corporation again. Everyone is working on starting a small business. Urban and suburban farms are on the rise. I hope we also see a rise in home based manufacturing.

Personally, there is very little I need to buy, I have more material possessions than I need. I spend my money locally. Boycott corporations as much as is possible. It is time to cut the losses and rebuild a more sound economy based on small businesses, not corporations.