Estimated Alien Population?

I'm sorry if this question has already been asked, but I'll ask it anyway.

I was wondering if anyone has figured out how many aliens possibly exist?

For example a way of figuring this out might be to combine the following:

1. number of unique (as in, 10 people claming to have seen 3 UFOs in the same area at the same time would count as 3 UFOs not 30) reported sightings of UFOs. However in my opinion this is a random chance, people don't always notice things, majority of people indoors etc when UFOs have been "visiting", UFOs visiting non-populated areas, people not reporting sightings for fear of ridicule, etc. So you would have to assume that for every reported sighting, 10 or more go unreported.


2. the estimated number of aliens aboard any given UFO (possibly based on alleged abduction stories, varying depending to the size of the UFO). Versus the number aboard manned earth-originating spacecraft, and that number versus the amount that are unmanned (because surely not all UFOs are manned either)

3. ratio of UFOs we know about/suspect versus number of earth-originated space "vehicles" deployed (so in other words, if there were 1,000 UFOs reported vs. say 10 from earth, factoring in advanced alien space technology, how big their population might be from space "vehicles" per capita)

4. the known population of humans on earth. Figuring our capabilities, the amount of people we have versus the amount "smart" enough to make it into space.

Does this make any sense? I'm sorry if it's a little vague or non-sensical, just throwing some ideas out there. Maths and statistics and the like are my weakest point so i apologise if this post is a little confusing or my "reference points" are not very clear.


[edit on 8-6-2009 by Vilyariel]

Well, there is the Drake Equation, which is really cool to ponder, unfortunately no one can no the variables so the answer is always the same....it is somewhere between just 1 and 1 with lots of zeros behind it.

Drake - Wiki Listing

Of course this has nothing to do with the estimated number of aliens visiting Earth for their anal probe fix though. That requires more speculation than the Drake Equation does, and a leap of faith that most should not be willing to take if they want this subject to move forward.



[edit on 8-6-2009 by IgnoreTheFacts]

reply to post by Vilyariel


The number 200 for the greys currently in the earth's sphere comes to mind. Then there are the bot ETs. Probably more numerous, no number comes to mind.

For the newer and weirder "stick figure" ETs, I would guess about 20-30.

Home base-mother ship--Saturn's rings.

Original point of origin? Unknown.

(Note. For amusement purposes only)

I'm gonna go one further............


There is prolly more living aliens that we wouldnt even know how to say the number....... thats how big the number would be.

Example:

123,424,656,356,234,974,046,637,892,479,254,195,668,433,128,653,677

weve got roughly 6,750,000,000... 1 planet.


So out of the hundreds of billions of solar systems, lets say ther was 1 planet in each that had life........and each was roughly the population of our,...... 6,7500,000,000x (we'll use the smallest of the hundreds)100,000,000,000=675,500,000,000,000,000,000

Im fairly confident theres more than 100 billion planets with life if there's more than 100 billion solar systems.

typo edit

[edit on 8-6-2009 by BrnBdry]

[edit on 8-6-2009 by BrnBdry]

reply to post by IgnoreTheFacts


Aha! Thanks, now that you mention it I think I have heard the Drake Equation mentioned somewhere. His idea is slightly different to mine though; he calculates the number we will have contact with however I was more interested in the possible population.

Thanks for the link though

reply to post by BrnBdry


Hmm, yes, but that's assuming that all of the planets are the same size as earth and can sustain the same sort of population / have the same birth rate as humans.

This is getting trickier the more we look into it

No one but the ETs know the answer to that question. We can only guess.
It may be an infinite number since the universe is infinite in itself.

Too many unknown variables....plus, you'd have to detail what your criteria is for the search. What constitutes an alien life form? Harder than you may think, as there are already things on this planet that we're not sure of, as they don't "fit" our idea of life as we know it.

OMG! I have had some similar thoughts about them. I don't think they would come out and display themselves too quickly. I think they have secretly studied mankind for a long, long time. Of course if they came out before mankind started getting used to the idea of them some human might shoot them in fear. I've seen oodles of vids showing alien craft and I have to wonder if alot of them changed their bodies in way to look like Mexicans! Of course being an illegal might get them more shot. I think that if they are really here than they are some of the people thought to be human may NOT be true! I've seen some things around here that was particular lights but made me think they were some kind of creatures with the way they moved and acted and even reproduced after the first sight! I believe you can still see some of them but most have went invisible. I can tell when some of them move but they don't do it when anyone's watching at the time. I have had the feeling that one day the truth will come to light on the alien issue.

Oh, yeah, I think a few of them are on computers listening and very rarely discuss things with human to learn more about us all.

Originally posted by Vilyariel
I was wondering if anyone has figured out how many aliens possibly exist?

I figured it out. Since nobody has a clue how life began on this planet, and we have absolutely no evidence of life anywhere else, the possible number of aliens in the universe is anywhere between zero and hundreds of thousands of billions. Glad I could help.

[edit on 8-6-2009 by Nohup]

There is an infinite population of aliens because consciousness is infinite.

Originally posted by IgnoreTheFacts
Well, there is the Drake Equation, which is really cool to ponder, unfortunately no one can no the variables so the answer is always the same....it is somewhere between just 1 and 1 with lots of zeros behind it.

Drake - Wiki Listing

Of course this has nothing to do with the estimated number of aliens visiting Earth for their anal probe fix though. That requires more speculation than the Drake Equation does, and a leap of faith that most should not be willing to take if they want this subject to move forward.



[edit on 8-6-2009 by IgnoreTheFacts]

Add an "anal probe" variable to Drake's equation. The input number being the estimated total number of past cases of people being probed.

interesting idea, but i'm not sure what you're asking specifically.

when it comes to how many aliens exist in the universe, we don't even have a really concrete idea on just HOW big the universe is, all we know is that it is massive beyond human comprehension - so the number is likely *tremendously* large.

when it comes to how many aliens exist for the given species people report, well we don't know much about their home world, how many planets they have colonized, etc. it would be impossible to really estimate it without any real knowledge of these things.

as for the amount of aliens visiting us? interesting idea, but considering that craft have been shown to disappear in many, many reports, it is likely they can hide from our senses very easily so we can't really get a good bearing on it. talking about the UFO I saw years ago, if it was manned by greys of slightly smaller than human size, I don't think more than 4 or 5 could even fit inside assuming the electronics were extremely compact. I have a feeling most of the UFOs seen in reports are small scout craft, with 1 or 2 aliens inside - assuming they are of similar physical scale to us.

Well if we are working on the theory of an infinite universe i am reminded of the following quote.

"It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination."

So zero sounds about right.

[edit on 8-6-2009 by pazcat]

Originally posted by pazcat
Well if we are working on the theory of an infinite universe i am reminded of the following quote.

"It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination."

So zero sounds about right.

[edit on 8-6-2009 by pazcat]

Except for the fact that i exist, and whoever said that quote AND yourself are just figments of my imagination. You don't exist, I do because I am typing this. Everything you type in response to this is just my subconscious giving me some much needed competition.

My "contacts" tell me that there over 2000 benevolent ETs alone. Yikes.

Originally posted by pazcat
Well if we are working on the theory of an infinite universe i am reminded of the following quote.

"It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination."

So zero sounds about right.

[edit on 8-6-2009 by pazcat]

if the universe is truly infinite, that does *not* mean there is a finite number of worlds. that means there is an infinite number of worlds. a planet's formation around a star being a probability does not mean that if there are infinity stars, then probability states that there are X planets because not all systems include them.

infinite means infinite. there is no limit. even if 0.0001% of stars had planets (we know this to not be the case), the fact there is no limit to the amount of stars means the same with planets. they're rare, sure, but with infinite chances to form there are still an infinite amount.

1 Billion.

Thanks for the replies all

I suppose talking "specifics" I was envisioning the populations of known "types" of aliens, greys, etc. From that I would guess they would be like humans, in that, humans are the only "species" of their "kind" on earth, therefore, i would hazard a guess and say that each "type" of alien is "unique" to each "home planet".