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According to Glenn Rudebusch, senior vice president at the San Francisco Fed, the Federal Reserve would have to slash the Fed funds rate to a negative 5% by the end of 2009 to create the level of monetary stimulus implied by the Fed’s own economic forecasts.
To talk about imminently increasing inflation in the United States today is to meet with policy makers’ derision. The prevailing thinking among mainstream macroeconomists is straightforward on this point — while unemployment is rising, inflation must be low or even falling. If anything, according to Ben Bernanke and his cohorts, we should fear deflation, i.e., falling wages and prices, a damaging characteristic of the Great Depression in the 1930s. But remember, macroeconomic orthodoxy has taken a beating in the past two years. Anyone who claimed subprime mortgages and their ilk could not constitute a macroeconomic threat now has a credibility issue; this includes at least some of our most senior policy thinkers.
If anything, according to Ben Bernanke and his cohorts, we should fear deflation, i.e., falling wages and prices, a damaging characteristic of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
...to a conference honoring the legacy of economist Milton Friedman, Bernanke said of the relationship between the Great Depression and the Fed: "We did it. We're very sorry" and "we won't do it again.