Worst Case Scenario: The Countryside

You and your family survive a disaster with enough food and supplies to provide them with very basic nutrition for a year. one day you see a cluster of refugees approaching your retreat, only three or four families with children. they ask for food and water, while you question them they tell you they are just the first of hundreds heading this way.

Are you going to feed them?
Are you willing to put your childrens lives at risk because if you do feed them it means you can no longer provide for your family for the year.
What if the refugees meet up with other refugees and tell them you were able to give them food.
What if they decide to come back mob handed to take what you have.

Is it worth the risk?

That's not a good scenario to face. It's taken one year to find you; you're almost certainly in better physical shape than those who find you. I'm fighting the urge to extend hospitality. A meal is probably an acceptable price to pay for information. Anything after that then it's back to everyone for themselves.

I would keep that backup shelter very handy and ready to activate. If they're the first of more to follow then the smart money is on G.O.O.D. once again and hope that nature and time thins the herd a little more.

reply to post by Morningglory


That is funny you mention people not knowing where they are. Like you say they use cellphones and the GPS units in their car dashboard but once that stops working they will be mighty discouraged.

Just imagine making a fire. Knowing what wood to use and what wood not to use (mountain laurel) and how to make a small fire that will not attract attention or use up all resources. How to cook the fish they spent all day trying to catch. How many will be killed by the very trees they are chopping down or hit by widow makers as they fall? Then the survivors have to spend a day burying the body or covering it with rocks further exhausting themselves.

I hope it doesn't come down to that. I'd help out anyone, especially someone with skills. A good cook, a gardener, a hunter, a fisherman, someone to chop wood, build stone walls to keep livestock in, security will be a secondary skill. Idle hands you know...

Originally posted by stikkinikki
How many will be killed by the very trees they are chopping down or hit by widow makers as they fall?

widow makers?

please, do enlighten me

Originally posted by stikkinikki

Just imagine making a fire. Knowing what wood to use and what wood not to use (mountain laurel) and how to make a small fire that will not attract attention or use up all resources.

Thanks for the safety tip. Remember kids, if the smoke smells of almonds it might be an idea to burns something else...



I thought a widow maker was the de-Havilland Mosquito.

reply to post by Northern Raider


I ask them if they have any meds to spare as I have a very sick person in the house. I would be traveling to but I have to care for them. I think that there is an aid station with food about 20 miles down the road. I wish I could get there as the stray cats are running out and we are hungry too.

Well your local grocery store only holds around 3 days worth of food at anyone time and thats based on a average. Gangs could seize a warehouse and could support themselves for a long time. I only mention gangs because other than the police or national guard they will be the only armed group already organized and could spring into action quickly, but even if they do this there supply will dwindle quickly. If you are not organized you run the risk of being shot by the authorities that are left or any other group that holds the limited resources.

We could also consider the medical end of this, how many people in our society are kept alive on a daily basis by the pills they take or the insulin or a type of electronic device.


If trains, trucks and ships stop coming there will be mass death even before the food supplies runs out, and as the OP suggests with the break down of basic services including medical services disease would would spread unchecked. Just think of all the ones that take medication for mental disorders running around unmediated with no worry of prosecution.

Crime would also run rampant, murder, rape, theft, all of the services that keep our society running would collapse, fires would rage out of control.

Humans are social creatures and you would have make shift gangs forming attempting to escape to a better place, Weaker humans would follow the stronger ones in a attempt to survive, although there effectiveness would depend on the leadership.

Rural America would quickly become under siege, in the struggle for resources. Like in the movie "The Postman" I could see small towns attempting to wall off their little towns and come together for protection and to produce food stuffs needed for survival.

How these things play out depends on leadership and the will to fight.

This, if it happens will be a nightmare of unprecedented magnitude.

Originally posted by Nirgal

Originally posted by stikkinikki

Just imagine making a fire. Knowing what wood to use and what wood not to use (mountain laurel) and how to make a small fire that will not attract attention or use up all resources.

Actually, you CAN burn the WOOD of mountain laurel but not the leaves. There's still a bit of an industry in making tobacco pipes out of mountain laurel since it is such a dense wood.

Thanks for the safety tip. Remember kids, if the smoke smells of almonds it might be an idea to burns something else...

I thought mountain laurel was supposed to smell like grapes or grape koolaid? The seeds are poisonous and the leaves cause paralysis. When bees make honey from the blossoms, beekeepers will toss it out due to sharp taste (and can cause nausea). Not aware of the almond smell. Is that due to some other tree, maybe?



I thought a widow maker was the de-Havilland Mosquito.

A widow maker is a tree that's fallen on another tree or a cracked tree top that's about to fall or, really, any pile of debris that, if it falls, will make your wife a widow.

[edit on 16-3-2009 by whitewave]

reply to post by whitewave


It possibly is just the leaves and the laurel in question is, I think, the Chinese variety that is in abundance in U.K. That info I took from a National Trust ranger when I spent I weekend clearing the stuff off a hillside in Sussex.

OP, jolly good post! I think though, it really has to do with the time and location... here where I live, is the summer, people would have +30 (Celsius) temperatures and full sun... very little water (and what water there is is NOT drinkable... needs to be heavily chlorinated and filtered first).

So say there is enough food for one week. Ok. But you won't last two days in the summer without water, and perhaps only an hour in the winter on account of the -20 temps we get (sometimes. Happens a few weeks every year... but at the very least, -5 to -10).... in the spring, maybe people would survive but still food would be a issue... the nearest farming location is about a hour drive away.. so perhaps 75 kilometers... walking 3 km an hour is 25 hours, not counting any illness/weakness/hunger. And that is going upriver, so if people die then there goes the water quality...

Basically what I am saying is in my location, sticking in the city is best, unless I can find a better place this year.... higher up in the hills behind my house, perhaps? Not much water around here either way. But, the raging mobs... one loose spark and the whole city and everything else is *gone*.

So what I am trying to say is I'm gonna create a dug-out or something in my back yard to store food and figure out some water source and then hid it ^.^ Plus there is some very good land all around here in various gardens... diversify!! Guess it really depends on the situation, eh?

Great post!

Originally posted by Cariaddi
I'm gonna create a dug-out or something in my back yard to store food and figure out some water source and then hid it

Have a look at 'greywater' systems...basically its a storage system that captures any water other than from the toilet that you could chlorinate or UV treat, and filter, to make potable, or use to irrigate crops

You'd be amazed at just how many litres per week of water you get through through for domestic use alone

[edit on 19-3-2009 by citizen smith]

reply to post by Cariaddi


Yes, the issue with water is quite a serious one when the conditions are against favour. I did a section on water also, however again i didnt post it.
i do however have an unedited, and unfinished, compendium of all the chapters here:
www.mmdswild.com...

reply to post by funny_pom


You know what?

I think if this was to happen and the scenario really became so wild that gangs would loot your possessions i'd probably just open the door and let them take it... what i have is worthless anyway and will still be worthless when they take it... so rather than fight them i'll just say 'take it, i don't give a Funk!!'

In fact i would have probably just left my place anyway with a few things in a rucksack before they get here.............

I live on the Canadian Prairies and here is how I have thought out about the issue of the hoards.

Assume a city of 1 million (ease of math)
Assume it's summer time
54% of the people in that city will be out of food and water in 3 days, of those over half will sit and wait until it's too late. So 25% of the city will be looking to flee and find food if they don't see gov't halp coming shortly.

So you have a group of about 250k leaving the city after 3 days till about 1 week. Of those about 50k will be on foot as they have no access to a vehicle. of the remaining 200k they will get on average about 50km to 150km from the city before running out of gas.

The ones on foot will drink from ditches and any other water source they find, at first most will beg for food but as time goes on they will get desperate and start stealing and looting/murdering to get what they need.
Assuming this group spreads out evenly from the city that means about 12k heading each cardinal direction. The smart ones will follow rivers out of the city as it means access to water. They will start out in small family groups and then join up for protection but as time goes on will break up over food access and the speed indivuals are walking. These people will be lucky to make 15km per day. It will take them at least a week to walk 100km and unless they have been lucky they will be weak when they get there. Also by the time they get out to the 100km mark they will have spread out a fair bit and will be in small groups again.

The the larger group in vehicles will have to start walking at the 100km (average) point depending on how much fuel they keep in there vehicles. They will also head out of the city pretty equally, so 50k heading any one direction. They will stick to the major highways at first but as traffic backs up will spread out onto smaller roads etc. They will be in one or two car caravans (mostly extended families). As the run out of fuel they will stop at small towns and isolated farms along the highways to try and get more fuel. If that fails they will start walking, given the fact many of hese people are not used to long distance walks they will try and take everything they stuffed into there vehicles with them and will be lucky to make 5-10 km/day. Within a few days they will be eating grass and drinking from ditches. They will already be short on food when they left and will be desperately trying to beg/borrow or steal what they need to survive. Unless they find food many will not make it more than 50km from the point they started walking.

So given this logic I figure the best place to be is not on a major river leading from a city (or at least 150km away), plus you should be at least 5km off of a major highway to avoid the worst of the drive by types and still be 100km or more from a city.

reply to post by exile1981


Very good interpretation there exile.
Regardless of how much i have pondered over the statistics of my scenarios, it still amazes me when it is put in to such a form as this.

Imagine, taking the same chain of events and using them on a city such as New York, Boston or any of the other conurbations in the North East. Also taking into the account of their location next to one another, and you get a very messy situation.

files.abovetopsecret.com...

Just take a look at the region, if your maximum distance that you could travel is 100miles, then if you lived in new york, you still might not even get out of the urban regions.

Originally posted by exile1981
I live on the Canadian Prairies and here is how I have thought out about the issue of the hoards.

Although Your assessment seems quite logical generally there are still A few things for me to express.

Assume a city of 1 million (ease of math)
Assume it's summer time
54% of the people in that city will be out of food and water in 3 days, of those over half will sit and wait until it's too late. So 25% of the city will be looking to flee and find food if they don't see gov't help coming shortly.

First of all I don't think 54% in 3 days is valid for Food and Water.
I think you need to address water separately.
I would say 60% run out of food in a week.
But there would be some issues but as not quickly as you propose.
I would say water right away within 24 hrs there would minor problems.
Now, as far a water is concerned,I don't think there would long term problems. We have alot of food and water but there may be problems with the logistics. If it was a country wide problem then I could see it play out that way. Not as quick as your stating.
Generally most larger Canadian cities have quite a sprawl to them with little communities around them.

So you have a group of about 250k leaving the city after 3 days till about 1 week. Of those about 50k will be on foot as they have no access to a vehicle. of the remaining 200k they will get on average about 50km to 150km from the city before running out of gas.

We have too many resources here.
There may be logistic problems.
There may be problems with waves of unrest..
I'm thinking it may not even lead to A mass exodus in most cities.
Theres A lot of government preparedness in place, if you make the right calls you'll find this to be true. There maybe A panic but not very severe.
I'm thinking A smoldering fire, not an explosion.
Unless it's A forced evacuation situation I don't think it happen.
There are more people that have somewhere to go than you think.
There may be problem with people trying to get there.

The ones on foot will drink from ditches and any other water source they find, at first most will beg for food but as time goes on they will get desperate and start stealing and looting/murdering to get what they need.
Assuming this group spreads out evenly from the city that means about 12k heading each cardinal direction. The smart ones will follow rivers out of the city as it means access to water. They will start out in small family groups and then join up for protection but as time goes on will break up over food access and the speed indivuals are walking. These people will be lucky to make 15km per day. It will take them at least a week to walk 100km and unless they have been lucky they will be weak when they get there. Also by the time they get out to the 100km mark they will have spread out a fair bit and will be in small groups again.

I think this part is somewhat valid,there are people that are clueless.
Generally people will start to eventually coalesce into groups.
I think there little pockets of problems in the rural area's as well.
In the cities it will escalate. People will start to pool up where there is water.

But most of the smart people are gone already. There is alot of trucks and Hummers on the roads. The countryside can bare a lot refugees.
I think A segment of the population may turn to violence and crime.
There will be looting of course ,but the majority won't.

The the larger group in vehicles will have to start walking at the 100km (average) point depending on how much fuel they keep in there vehicles. They will also head out of the city pretty equally, so 50k heading any one direction. They will stick to the major highways at first but as traffic backs up will spread out onto smaller roads etc. They will be in one or two car caravans (mostly extended families). As the run out of fuel they will stop at small towns and isolated farms along the highways to try and get more fuel. If that fails they will start walking, given the fact many of hese people are not used to long distance walks they will try and take everything they stuffed into there vehicles with them and will be lucky to make 5-10 km/day. Within a few days they will be eating grass and drinking from ditches. They will already be short on food when they left and will be desperately trying to beg/borrow or steal what they need to survive. Unless they find food many will not make it more than 50km from the point they started walking.

I agree

So given this logic I figure the best place to be is not on a major river leading from a city (or at least 150km away), plus you should be at least 5km off of a major highway to avoid the worst of the drive by types and still be 100km or more from a city.

I agree, try and stay away from a range roads as well.
I would say you don't have to even go that far.
Make sure you not visible from the roads.
Make sure you know who your neighbors are.
Hope that their good people.

[edit on 11-10-2009 by The Utopian Penguin]

Just to re-inform the readers, there are no electronic devices period. No means of government preparedness can be put to use without communication equipment.

But you are right about food and water being separate Penguin, it is something i have approached that way too (take a look at the food thread, link is in OP)

although there might be plenty of water in a city, especially one in a temperate or cool climate, access to it will be limited. if there are no working water mains, one might have to travel some distance to find a running water source, i.e. a stream, river, lake or whatever the case might be.

food will also spoil if all measures of preservation have failed, so that will reduce available stocks dramatically. See here for the thread on this topic

As for large population movement, it will not happen on a grand scale until a month after zero hour at the minimum. Movement within an urban area will occur constantly however, particulary out of the central, high density regions of an urban centre into the surrounding suburban sprawl.

for more in such movements, there is this topic: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by funny_pom
Just to re-inform the readers, there are no electronic devices period. No means of government preparedness can be put to use without communication equipment

I'm aware the scenario funny_pom TY,Exile made reference to A prairie Canadian city Of around A million people. It will play out differently there than elsewhere. As far as government preparedness not playing out,I know your wrong.Trust me on this. When I reference to logistics,I know what I'm talking about. lol sorry. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are the prairie provinces.
en.wikipedia.org...
This reference will help as well
www.insightimmigration.com...
Google map them if you like (the figures are from 2006)

Alberta has two cities of around A million,Calgary and Edmonton

Manitoba has Winnipeg (739,000)
Saskatchewan has Saskatoon(200 thousand) and Regina(180,000)

After you have a chance to examine those two cities you will realize that
There is A lot of water and agriculture in the area.
There is A lot of parks,campgrounds and food production in the area.
That also means people have all summer to settle in for the winter.
Both cities have rivers that run through them and lakes near by.
I don't see any major problems.
They both have international airports
Are major repositories for goods.there is gas,oil,and natural gas.
coal. supplies are not the problem.
172 miles 277 kilometers distance between these two cities
If you look at Alberta closely. it's not crowded.
It's get to about -25 c in the winter but thats short lived.
so if the SHTF that is where most people want to be.

But you are right about food and water being separate Penguin, it is something i have approached that way too (take a look at the food thread, link is in OP)

Thank you FP

although there might be plenty of water in a city, especially one in a temperate or cool climate, access to it will be limited. if there are no working water mains, one might have to travel some distance to find a running water source, i.e. a stream, river, lake or whatever the case might be.

Thats not valid upon further investigation

food will also spoil if all measures of preservation have failed, so that will reduce available stocks dramatically. See here for the thread on this topic

That wont be a problem.

As for large population movement, it will not happen on a grand scale until a month after zero hour at the minimum. Movement within an urban area will occur constantly however, particulary out of the central, high density regions of an urban centre into the surrounding suburban sprawl.

It will happen in waves if you walk two days your by a lake or a cow or a wheat field.

for more in such movements, there is this topic: www.abovetopsecret.com...

I hope you see that in this area A lot will survive.
There is hydro,gas production,manufacturing and agriculture.

[edit on 11-10-2009 by redgy]

reply to post by whitewave


Whitewave is "dead on" -- and those who try to come to my farm and take over will be put out of their misery if they try to take over. Work together to survive and don't try to take over what we have worked hard to keep from the "Money Changers"