Worst Case Scenario: The Countryside, page 5

Originally posted by The Utopian Penguin

Originally posted by exile1981
I live on the Canadian Prairies and here is how I have thought out about the issue of the hoards.

Although Your assessment seems quite logical generally there are still A few things for me to express.

First of all I don't think 54% in 3 days is valid for Food and Water.

I have a friend who works for the gov't and he told me that a recent survey found that 54% of the people in Canada do not have 72 hours of food and water in there homes.

I think you need to address water separately.
I would say 60% run out of food in a week.
But there would be some issues but as not quickly as you propose.
I would say water right away within 24 hrs there would minor problems.

I figure people can last 3 days on the water in there toilet tanks and what they have around the home.

Now, as far a water is concerned,I don't think there would long term problems. We have alot of food and water but there may be problems with the logistics. If it was a country wide problem then I could see it play out that way. Not as quick as your stating.
Generally most larger Canadian cities have quite a sprawl to them with little communities around them.

I was basing my idea on a sudden stop in electricity and gov't infrastructure, like an EMP or a major asteroid. A pandemic would be a much worse one as people would be more afraid of those they encounter.

We have too many resources here.
There may be logistic problems.
There may be problems with waves of unrest..
I'm thinking it may not even lead to A mass exodus in most cities.
Theres A lot of government preparedness in place, if you make the right calls you'll find this to be true. There maybe A panic but not very severe.
I'm thinking A smoldering fire, not an explosion.
Unless it's A forced evacuation situation I don't think it happen.
There are more people that have somewhere to go than you think.
There may be problem with people trying to get there.

The issue I see is that in a city like either Edmonton or Calgary, you have central areas in the city where the big grocery chains have the storage warehouses. Once the stores run out, either the gov't or a large agressive gang will take over those facilities and control the food supply. In a few weeks a city of 1 million will have eaton all the supplies in those warehouses. I figure about half of the million or so people in the city have a place they want to get to, but by the time they head out fuel access could be a huge issue. Also the chances of getting there on a tank of gas is slim.

I think this part is somewhat valid,there are people that are clueless.
Generally people will start to eventually coalesce into groups.
I think there little pockets of problems in the rural area's as well.
In the cities it will escalate. People will start to pool up where there is water.

But most of the smart people are gone already. There is alot of trucks and Hummers on the roads. The countryside can bare a lot refugees.
I think A segment of the population may turn to violence and crime.
There will be looting of course ,but the majority won't.

I think that about 5% or so will turn quickly to violence because either they figure it's thiers or they want to take it. Many others will start to head down that path if they feel desperate enough, or if "society" stays broken long enough. Rivers will become centers for new communities. Looting may not be common but people will still "forage" and may not think about who's land they are on.

Make sure you know who your neighbors are.
Hope that their good people.

Even small towns have bad apples.

[edit on 11-10-2009 by The Utopian Penguin]