Originally posted by exile1981
I live on the Canadian Prairies and here is how I have thought out about the issue of the hoards.
Although Your assessment seems quite logical generally there are still A few things for me to express.
Assume a city of 1 million (ease of math)
Assume it's summer time
54% of the people in that city will be out of food and water in 3 days, of those over half will sit and wait until it's too late. So 25% of the city
will be looking to flee and find food if they don't see gov't help coming shortly.
First of all I don't think 54% in 3 days is valid for Food and Water.
I think you need to address water separately.
I would say 60% run out of food in a week.
But there would be some issues but as not quickly as you propose.
I would say water right away within 24 hrs there would minor problems.
Now, as far a water is concerned,I don't think there would long term problems. We have alot of food and water but there may be problems with the
logistics. If it was a country wide problem then I could see it play out that way. Not as quick as your stating.
Generally most larger Canadian cities have quite a sprawl to them with little communities around them.
So you have a group of about 250k leaving the city after 3 days till about 1 week. Of those about 50k will be on foot as they have no access
to a vehicle. of the remaining 200k they will get on average about 50km to 150km from the city before running out of gas.
We have too many resources here.
There may be logistic problems.
There may be problems with waves of unrest..
I'm thinking it may not even lead to A mass exodus in most cities.
Theres A lot of government preparedness in place, if you make the right calls you'll find this to be true. There maybe A panic but not very severe.
I'm thinking A smoldering fire, not an explosion.
Unless it's A forced evacuation situation I don't think it happen.
There are more people that have somewhere to go than you think.
There may be problem with people trying to get there.
The ones on foot will drink from ditches and any other water source they find, at first most will beg for food but as time goes on they will
get desperate and start stealing and looting/murdering to get what they need.
Assuming this group spreads out evenly from the city that means about 12k heading each cardinal direction. The smart ones will follow rivers out of
the city as it means access to water. They will start out in small family groups and then join up for protection but as time goes on will break up
over food access and the speed indivuals are walking. These people will be lucky to make 15km per day. It will take them at least a week to walk 100km
and unless they have been lucky they will be weak when they get there. Also by the time they get out to the 100km mark they will have spread out a
fair bit and will be in small groups again.
I think this part is somewhat valid,there are people that are clueless.
Generally people will start to eventually coalesce into groups.
I think there little pockets of problems in the rural area's as well.
In the cities it will escalate. People will start to pool up where there is water.
But most of the smart people are gone already. There is alot of trucks and Hummers on the roads. The countryside can bare a lot refugees.
I think A segment of the population may turn to violence and crime.
There will be looting of course ,but the majority won't.
The the larger group in vehicles will have to start walking at the 100km (average) point depending on how much fuel they keep in there
vehicles. They will also head out of the city pretty equally, so 50k heading any one direction. They will stick to the major highways at first but as
traffic backs up will spread out onto smaller roads etc. They will be in one or two car caravans (mostly extended families). As the run out of fuel
they will stop at small towns and isolated farms along the highways to try and get more fuel. If that fails they will start walking, given the fact
many of hese people are not used to long distance walks they will try and take everything they stuffed into there vehicles with them and will be lucky
to make 5-10 km/day. Within a few days they will be eating grass and drinking from ditches. They will already be short on food when they left and
will be desperately trying to beg/borrow or steal what they need to survive. Unless they find food many will not make it more than 50km from the point
they started walking.
So given this logic I figure the best place to be is not on a major river leading from a city (or at least 150km away), plus you should be at
least 5km off of a major highway to avoid the worst of the drive by types and still be 100km or more from a city.
I agree, try and stay away from a range roads as well.
I would say you don't have to even go that far.
Make sure you not visible from the roads.
Make sure you know who your neighbors are.
Hope that their good people.
[edit on 11-10-2009 by The Utopian Penguin]