Can we all finally agree that we are going to see The Great Depression II?

I don't know why anybody feels differently.

I've been arguing this with several different people here in Texas, and most people don't feel like that's the case at all. No wait, let me clarify the typical response I get in Texas

"Sure times are bad, but we are not going to see a Great Depression... it just can't happen"

"Now is the perfect time to invest!"

"The Bailout is gonna work."

"Look at the price of gas, this is a good thing!"

and my personal favorite: "Who gives a *** about how high the National Debt is... we aren't gonna pay it off anyway."

Is anybody hearing retarded comments like these? I'm sure if you live in Detroit you're not, but I'm starting to think that maybe Texans really are stupid.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone on ATS by saying this: we can debate 9-11, UFO's, and religion all day... but if you think we aren't headed into a Depression in the next few years, maybe it's your the one that needs to wake up.

(Not to mention what could happen if America has another Disaster like 9-11 during the midst of this economic crisis.)

It does seem that way as time moves on. With promised debt at about 50 trillion it doesn't seem like things are going to turn out well. I was thinking too that after the great depression we were strong and became a manufacturing powerhouse. After this depression, what is going to pull us out? Manufacturing isn't coming back to the US anytime soon.

Yes, yes we can.

Your typical responses are......well.........typically ridiculous.

I know these people too. I live in So Cal and I get the same. Matter of fact, I stopped mentioning it to people a few weeks back because I was sick of all "they will take care of us" crap. Or the rolled eyes like I'm the crazy one.

Way to throw it down.

How do you define "The Great Depression II"?

Before I chime in, I'd like to hear what in specific you believe would move us out of recession territory and into "The Great Depression II."

reply to post by anachryon

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I would define it as a Worldwide economic collapse following the stock market crash, in which unemployment remains high for an extended period and many businesses fail.

It sounds like a new movie.

Stock Market hits below 5,000 then there will be no denying it's the great depression 2. That'd be a 64% loss from the high in October 2007. Not only that the market hasn't been below 5,000 since November of 95, when we were just getting out our last recession.

reply to post by anachryon

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You beat me to this question.

Would also like to hear the OP's indicators.

I guess I'm in another world. People are shopping, going to amusement parks and packing in the restaurants.

I'll wait form the OP to answer your question before I give my opinion also.

As the data and every single credible economist strongly believes otherwise, I would say we definitely would not agree.

Add to the fact that every single recession in history since 1930 has been preempted with "OH MY GOD GREAT DEPRESSION II WERE ALL DOOMED," and the reality just doesn't support it.

If we were in current economic conditions and commodities had continued to sky rocket and the dollar continued to drop, then maybe. But they haven't.

(looks at crystal ball)There is no way anyone can say if another Great Depression will occur again,but surely everything and the markets included have changed since ,there will however be large scale job losses on a global level,the developing countries will be particularly ravaged and perhaps war over resources(Africa anybody?)oil will probably bottom at 35/barrel,we will see some businesses will shut down,and there will be shortages of some commodities,mom and pop businesses will thrive,so will the handyman down the street,credit will be all but unavailable so people will have to actually save and earn what they get but i can't see major food line-ups any time soon,in the short term: GM will not be allowed to go down.


[edit on 14-11-2008 by all2human]

Sorry, but I don't agree with you at all. I will admit that we are in tough economic times but I don't think we're going to get much worse. I also have word from a friend in retail that sales have picked up just in the last week or two. He commented that last weekend was as busy as a mid to late december weekend usually is which is pretty odd for late october.

I am sorry to be so negative but yes we are seeing many stores already
closing and that should be some sort of sign.
My question is, what is next?

reply to post by crazyjames65

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It's not negative it's REAL. You just happen to be in an area where it is more obvious. Some simply see it where they live and some don't. These views will always differ bye sheer location.

At least you were brave enough to offer an opinion

Until the we get a clear definition from the OP.....

10% drop in the GNP? A guess?

I don't agree...yet, the great depression was not only economic disaster it coincided with a natural disaster of epic proportions, the dust bowl. Until a major event or events happen that can be compared to that i would say a recession with a rough 2009 and recovery beginning in the early 2010 time frame. By then we will all be converted socialists with red tape from gov't regs hanging from our arses!!

I think we are going to have a terrible 2009, economically. Great Depression II? That would happen in 2010, I believe, if major reforms are not enacted by Congress in 2009.

The problem is debt... consumer debt, national debt, any kind of debt. In 2008, we have heard words like "collapse" and "meltdown" by people in governments around the world and in the mainstream media. I think right now, there are manipulations in all the markets to keep them afloat and to try to somehow avoid massive defaults on all the debts. I'm no expert, but that's what I see happening.

On the consumer level, I see people not spending because they are either on the verge of defaulting on their personal finances or they fear that could be on their personal horizon, so they are holding back. This conserving of money can cause a deflation spiral that could lead to yes, a Depression.

These serious problems seem worldwide.

I also think all of the bailouts have been and are a bad idea. I understand that there was hysteria about a meltdown or a collapse if we didn't bail out the investment banks and AIG, but I just don't see throwing good money after bad.

If Congress does not pass sweeping, new legislation in 2009 to help consumers (cap loan interest rates at reasonable levels, no banking gimmicks, credit card reform, etc) then yes, I think we are going to have The Great Depression II beginning in late Jan to early Feb of 2010. Next year will just be more of the same bad news we've been getting over the last 2 months.

stop procrastinating and start preparing

there really is no excuse for not being ready

NARRATOR
In a world of floating currencies and a time of mass economic ignorance...

FADE FROM BLACK - INTERIOR - SENATE FLOOR
SEN. Ableman
"I ask you AGAIN Mister Secretary, 'How much of a burden is this going to be on the taxpayer - the American People?'"

SEC. Jones
"YOU sit up there in your comfortable taxpayer bought suit and presume lecture ME about burdens on American People?"

SEN. Ableman
"JUST GIVE ME THE NUMBER!"

SEC. Jones
"YOUR CALCULATOR CAN'T EVEN HANDLE THE NUMBER!"

NARRATOR
...One man is about to discover a truth so extraordinary...

CUT TO - INTERIOR - GOVERNMENT FILE STORAGE
DR. Vines - trying to suppress his excitement.
"This can't be real!"

MR. Porter - whispering.
"What's it say, Doc?"

DR. Vines
"It talks about plans. My God. Calculators, computers, everything digital has a maximum number that it can represent..."

MR. Porter
"And that..."

DR. Vines - continues, ignoring Porter.
"...and they own all the electronics companies ...and they control the rate of inflation."

NARRATOR
...that it may cost him everything and everyone he holds dear.

CUT TO - INTERIOR - SUBWAY CAR
DR. Vines is bloody and panting hard. He looks injured.
"You have to tell" *wheeze* "the president" *wince* "about the plot-"

MR. Porter
"DOC! Don't die! Come on, tell me, 'What plot?'"

DR. Vines
"The document. Overflow.. Overfl-" *expires*

MR. Porter
"NOOOOOOO!"

MONTAGE
Running person.
Explosion.
Intense angry stare.
Car chase.
Big explosion.
Fist fight.
Gun play.
Explosion.

FADE TO BLACK

Coming December '08

Jon

[edit on 11.14.2008 by Voxel]

I just can't see it getting any better, and I'm an optimist to the nth degree. There is just to much going on that says Depression. if we don't I will be glad, but I'm afraid we will. I don't think it will take over a year.

Me and some friends were talking about this just today. The first depression affected mostly just the USA and the rest of the world little if any. But then you could not pick up things made all over the world at every store and shop. You could not buy a pound of nails at the local hard-ward that were made in India. Or a fuel filter from the auto parts store made in Israel. And on and on. Today that is just about all you do find. And just watch the news and read the paper. Banks all over the world are failing. If we do have a Great Depression II it will be felt world wide. And there is little if anything that one county can not to change this because the market today is a global market so all counties that are in the market will have to act together to get anything done. Will we have a Great Depression II ? I do not know and maybe I do not want to know.

I don't think that what we're seeing is just a U.S. "Great Depression", but a "Global Great Depression", so the build up takes longer and probably looks different than the great depression of the U.S..

Great little movie preview script Voxel, a star for you lol.

-Lahara