The latest Stats on election 2008

With 2 weeks to go here is an update on current projections


www.realclearpolitics.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.politico.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.intrade.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.fivethirtyeight.com... (Obama 344 ECV)


www.electoral-vote.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.cnn.com... (Obama 277 ECV....at this point this is the worst Obama can do.)

It looks like Obama is on target to get 364 ECV.

On yahoo it has Obama at 344 ECV.

news.yahoo.com...

Edit to add:

As far as I can see, McCain needs to win back five states in order to make this race a dead heat. Not to win, but to make it a dead heat. I am not sure he can do that in two weeks. But we shall see. Who knows, these poll numbers could be wrong which will throw the electoral vote map way off.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Cowgirlstraitup7]

This victory dancing in the media with these polls reminds me so much of 2004 and how they treated Kerry. All I ave to say is you all better hope all those young voters come out for Obama.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Marcus Calpurnius]

Does anybody know if these polls take into account

1) 3rd party candidates

2) racist vote

I know the 90 something percent black vote is accounted for but what about the ones who don't want a black President because of color.

I also saw something on CNN yesterday after one of their "polls" that said they found that 70% of those polled were Democrats. So I ask you, how does that make for a balanced poll?

Also consider that the media is doing the Democratic party a big disservice by boating numbers like these because in doing so they are sending the message to others who haven't voted that they don't need to go vote because Obama has this one wrapped up already.

And, you guys touting these polls are going to look awfully dumbfounded come election day and either:

1. McCain wins
2. Obama wins by a slim margin

I don't believe it's going to be a landslide like the Democrats and the liberal media would have you believe.

Originally posted by jam321
Does anybody know if these polls take into account

1) 3rd party candidates

2) racist vote

I know the 90 something percent black vote is accounted for but what about the ones who don't want a black President because of color.

How do you peer in to people's hearts and minds to figure that out? I'm just always amazed by the race fear mongering going on in this election.

Originally posted by jam321
Does anybody know if these polls take into account

1) 3rd party candidates

2) racist vote

I know the 90 something percent black vote is accounted for but what about the ones who don't want a black President because of color.

What about the ones only voting for Obama because he is of color?

While I personally would like to see the candidates I am going to vote for win, based on past election poll results, I'm not putting a whole lot of stock in the se "Polls". It wouldn't be a complete shocker to see just the opposite happen of what the polls say. Not to mention, in the end, it's up to the electorate, not the populus to elect the president, AND, not to mention, they are already having problems with the voting machines in Florida. No real surprise here, but it reaks of fraud when someone touches the screen, and the check-mark is for the other candidate. What a country we live in.

reply to post by Marcus Calpurnius


you make a good point Marcus.

At the beginning of the general election it wasn't about race, now race is playing a role. Which party brought race into play is debatable.

These polls do not reflect reality.. I have not told the truth on any I ever did- reason- it is no one elses business.

They are figuring this out
news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by jd140


Those 90 percent in my view are accounted for in the poll. What I am trying to figure out is if the polls take into account the unknowns or the polls strictly based on the 2 party system?

I also wonder if the polls are being manipulated to ones party advantage. Seeing as to the fact that the media for the most part has been one of Obama biggest supporter.

I still think McCain is going to pull it off. The media psychological campaign plays a part in Obama's numbers "looking" so good.

I think when people go to check that checkmark they will think twice and choose wisely. To top it off there are already enough McCain supporters as it is. I think the fact that Biden opened his mouth about something happening in 6 months is only going to help McCain.

There have been incidents of phone pollsters in NH asking party affiliation and if you answered "Republican" they claimed they "had enough of those" and hung up. I dont know if this is normal practice to get so many of each party or if it was intentionally weighting a poll toward one party over another or what but polls are a lot like statistics if you catch my drift.

Yes the quotes by Joe Biden and Colin Powell were almost like they are trying to derail Obama,regardless whomever wins will inherit a can of worms,and not the kind you can go fishing with

reply to post by AndrewTB


Yeah, there is a definite push being made by the media to depress Republican voters. They tried the same thing in 2004 and I ave a feeling they will be just as disappointed this time around.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Marcus Calpurnius]

If someone wants to bring up the Bradley Effect and racism then try to dispute the numbers:

Here

Also, the primaries already proved that the Bradley Effect or at least "people will say they will vote for him but won't when voting" is false, because he beat out a white candidate, and according to the polling numbers, outperformed himself in several areas especially the South.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by davion]

Originally posted by davion
If someone wants to bring up the Bradley Effect and racism then try to dispute the numbers:

Here

I dont put as much credence in the Bradley effect as I do on the less known "republican effect". Almost any time a republican is in danger turnout is very high and typically puts the candidate over the top.

I like how some GOP supporters say the polls are all wrong. Fine.

Then follow the money guys. Do you really think people would be wasting all their money over at intrade. Remember you can put money into McCain states that are sure thing to win too, like Oklahoma where McCain has a 98% lead.

www.intrade.com...

Think about it.

Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
I like how some GOP supporters say the polls are all wrong. Fine.

Then follow the money guys. Do you really think people would be wasting all their money over at intrade. Remember you can put money into McCain states that are sure thing to win too, like Oklahoma where McCain has a 98% lead.

www.intrade.com...

Think about it.

You're ignoring evidence. I was just telling you how CNN said their "poll" consisted of 70% Democrats. It was on the TV yesterday.

How is that a valid poll?

How many other polls are skewed that way?

reply to post by sos37

You're ignoring evidence. I was just telling you how CNN said their "poll" consisted of 70% Democrats. It was on the TV yesterday.

Do you have a link to back this up? I'd be interested in review it.