The latest Stats on election 2008

Originally posted by sos37

Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
I like how some GOP supporters say the polls are all wrong. Fine.

Then follow the money guys. Do you really think people would be wasting all their money over at intrade. Remember you can put money into McCain states that are sure thing to win too, like Oklahoma where McCain has a 98% lead.

www.intrade.com...

Think about it.

You're ignoring evidence. I was just telling you how CNN said their "poll" consisted of 70% Democrats. It was on the TV yesterday.

How is that a valid poll?

How many other polls are skewed that way?

I am afraid you don't understand, this IS NOT A POLL, this where people basically bet money like in the stock market who will win each state. This is not pundit's just blowing hot air. There is real cash on the line based on all the known variables which include polls but they are not the only factor.

Intrade has a very good track record of calling elections, they called every 2006 race correctly.

Again....FOLLOW THE MONEY!

Sorry double post



[edit on 21-10-2008 by Blue_Jay33]

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Blue_Jay33]

I already take the Polls with a pinch of salt, as I must say, need we anymore example why than Senator Clinton's run against Senator Obama in the New Hampshire Primary? She was projected to lose there by 13 Percentage Points the night before Voting. However, she ended up winning by nearly 5 Percentage points, even taking into account the other two Candidates still in the Contest (John Edwards, and Governor Richardson).

These Electoral Projections are ridiculous in my view however, as they put forth the feeling that November 4th has already come and gone. Seriously folks, if we must take Polls with caution, then be sure to take these premature Electoral Projections with downright skepticism.

Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
I like how some GOP supporters say the polls are all wrong. Fine.

Then follow the money guys. Do you really think people would be wasting all their money over at intrade. Remember you can put money into McCain states that are sure thing to win too, like Oklahoma where McCain has a 98% lead.

www.intrade.com...

Think about it.

Lol, I have plenty of experience with Vegas, and we all know about Wall Street. Based upon that, I would hardly place a Presidential race upon bookies, how about you?

Originally posted by Fuzzy Wabbit
reply to post by sos37

 

You're ignoring evidence. I was just telling you how CNN said their "poll" consisted of 70% Democrats. It was on the TV yesterday.

Do you have a link to back this up? I'd be interested in review it.

Foregoing a cited statistic as of yet in regards to the aforementioned CNN Poll, take a look at their Debate Poll:

OXFORD, Mississippi (CNN) -- A national poll of people who watched the first presidential debate suggests that Barack Obama came out on top, but there was overwhelming agreement that both Obama and John McCain would be able to handle the job of president if elected....

Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the better job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said John McCain did better.

Then this, near the end of the Article:

The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned in to the debate. Of the debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent as Republicans and 30 percent as independents.

Even Rasmussen-Reports, which shows a relatively consistent Poll this week of:

Senator Obama: 50%
Senator McCain: 46%

Admits that 39% of those Surveyed are Democrats, while 33% are Republicans.

Added new poll sites

www.realclearpolitics.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.politico.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.intrade.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.fivethirtyeight.com... (Obama 344 ECV)


www.electoral-vote.com... (Obama 364 ECV)


www.pollster.com... (Obama 286 ECV)


news.yahoo.com... (Obama 344 ECV)


www.latimes.com...
(Obama 318 ECV)


www.cnn.com... (Obama 277 ECV....at this point this is the worst Obama can do.)


It looks like Obama is on target to get 364 ECV.

For all those diehard McCain supporters keeping the faith the trend is so clear, it will be ALMOST impossible for McCain to win this.

Let's not forget the over 1 million Ron Paul supporters that were mostly from the GOP and independent side, that WON'T be voting for McCain because of how the GOP & the RNC treated both Ron Paul and his supporters. The basically said screw them we don't need your votes to win.

Guess what GOP, you were wrong, screw you, and the elephant you rode in on in 2008. Have fun losing

[edit on 22-10-2008 by Blue_Jay33]

Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
I like how some GOP supporters say the polls are all wrong. Fine.

Then follow the money guys. Do you really think people would be wasting all their money over at intrade. Remember you can put money into McCain states that are sure thing to win too, like Oklahoma where McCain has a 98% lead.

www.intrade.com...

Think about it.

Actually, yes, I do think they'd be wasting their money over there. In the days leading up to McCain's VP selection, there were wild swings between several candidates. They didn't have a clue. Palin was in single digits the entire time. Granted, this isn't quite as unpredictable, but I'm hardly going to consider Intrade as a reliable predictor of this election based upon what I've seen in the past.

All I know is this: there will probably be 20-30M more people show up at the polls this year than have ever done so before. Probably 80% of them will NOT, however, be newly registered...they just normally don't bother voting. They may be Dems, but they could just as easily be Republicans or Independents. You can cite the polls all day long, but its hard to know exactly what those people are going to do and who they side with until we start seeing actual results two weeks from now.

The county I live in is a perfect example of how things aren't always as they seem. Dems have a 3-1 voter registration advantage and about 60% of the total registered voters usually turn out on election day. Bush won this county 52-47 in 2004. Based upon what I'm seeing and hearing, turnout will probably be nearly 80% this year. That should favor Obama, right? Wrong. McCain will very likely win here by at least a 60-40 margin. I would be very surprised if high turnout doesn't favor McCain here. I'm sure that the pollsters would tell you the exact opposite from looking at the registration data from their offices in New York City.

The point here is simply this: the high turnout has the potential to be a major wildcard here and there's a very good chance that these polls that sample 20-40 people per state on average aren't accurately measuring it. I don't know if those people will vote for Obama or not, but I think it is fallacy to automatically believe that they will.

reply to post by Bizmark35


I'm pretty sure that here in Florida, the touch screen machines aren't used anymore. All of Florida uses an optical scanning system...at least that's what the local news here in SWFL has made it seem like.

Originally posted by octotom
reply to post by Bizmark35

 

I'm pretty sure that here in Florida, the touch screen machines aren't used anymore. All of Florida uses an optical scanning system...at least that's what the local news here in SWFL has made it seem like.

Yes all of Florida is using the optical system. I suppose, if and when obama loses Florida, it will be disputed and the paper ballots will have to be hand counted due to defective scanners.

I just hope we don't mess it up like in 2000.

[edit on 10/29/2008 by AndrewTB]

Originally posted by AndrewTB

Originally posted by octotom
reply to post by Bizmark35

 

I'm pretty sure that here in Florida, the touch screen machines aren't used anymore. All of Florida uses an optical scanning system...at least that's what the local news here in SWFL has made it seem like.

Yes all of Florida is using the optical system. I suppose, if and when obama loses Florida, it will be disputed and the paper ballots will have to be hand counted due to defective scanners.

I just hope we don't mess it up like in 2000.

[edit on 10/29/2008 by AndrewTB]

I don't think that we'll need to worry about it being messed up. Perhaps the votes will have to be hand counted, but, since it's a bubble in system [fill in the circle next to the guy that you want], it shouldn't be too bad if the votes are recounted...no hanging chads or anything like that, just look for what the person bubbled in. That ballot isn't confusing either, it's pretty straight forward. If the people in Miami-Dade and Palm beach can't figure this one out...I'll scream to say the least.

[edit on 10/29/2008 by octotom]

reply to post by jam321


WHAT?!?!?! Do you seriously believe that the pollsters samples are not random? Do you think that they exclude racists from their polls? If so, how do you figure that?

Looks like the average of 364 ECV was right on, now that is accurate polling data.