Its official: The US is in recession

Originally posted by grimreaper797
Growth hasn't been negative yet. Just because the stocks have been falling doesn't mean we are in a recession.

Two quarters of negative growth is not the benchmark for recession. That's a fallacy bordering on urban legend. The NBER defines a recession as:

...a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales

Current estimation is that we entered a recession in Dec 07 or Jan 08. The market indicators of the past few weeks didn't cause us to go into one, though it has caused the existing recession to deepen.

grimreaper797

Obviously you live in a well to be state or else you have not been around the lower income communities in your city.

You should come down to the south where I am and get a reality check of how America is going to start looking like as the population of unemployment and destitute keeps growing.

reply to post by grimreaper797


You may know nothing about it but my family knows plenty.
I am sick and tired of these sweeping generalizations about the American people.
There are more Americans out there trying to make ends meet, trying to keep shelter over their childrens heads and bread on the table then there are buying up plasmas.
For families making under $50,000 a year (which is the average) they are barely able to pay their rent/mortgage, car payment/gas/maintenance/insurance, sky rocketing energy utilities and sky rocketing food prices to even think of buying that shiny new car (hence the reason that car dealerships are going bust all over).
Yes there are many, MANY Americans that have lived outside of their means, that have lived off credit for too long and yes they are in for a world of hurt and yes it is probably justified but to just leap us all into the same boat is ludicrous.
The trickle down theory just didnt work for those families that make on or under the average income of $50,000.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


You know I agree with you but I feel that is not justified that hard working Americans have to be faced with what is coming to them for living beyond their means while we have a corporate corrupted government using the tax payer money to bail out the wealthy elite of this nation.

Is not right, they are the ones that should be reaping the devastation they created at the expenses of the consumers of this nation that now find themselves homeless and unemployed.

As the consumer loses their hold on their expending power so the nation will reap the results.

Small retailers will start going bankrupt next will be the big chain stores and to tell you the truth without any help for the consumers in trouble in this nation that is exactly what is going to happen.

Even Cramer in mad money was talking about this same issue with the consumer leaving the big malls and big chain stores for low end spending stores like dollar tree and general dollar.

Interesting.

Doesn't matter what NBER defines it as, the technical definition is two consecutive quaters of negative growth. All those other things are indicators. When employment is dropping, real income is going down, and retail is getting slow, that negative growth is in the card deck.

The market, the unemployment numbers, the retail numbers recently, they are all indicators of what is now here, and happening.

reply to post by marg6043


Yep that too Marg. I live in Margs state and it is not pretty and this state is a well to do, conservative, Republican state and it is NOT pretty.
This whole trickle down economics theory just doesnt work, you have a deep divide between the rich and the poor.
Today a report came out that 32% of Georgians are working poor, that 60% of working Georgians have no health insurance, that 40% of working households are below the poverty level.
These people are working, they are not just sitting around collecting Government assistants checks, they are working, struggling and they are still at the poverty or poor level.
They are not living beyond their means and this is coming from a well to do state. What do states like Michigan look like? or Louisiana? or Mississippi? or Virginia?

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


There use to be PLEANTY of people who survived on ALOT less, how did they do it? They didn't spend time on the internet, playing video games, and watching tv. This is what happens when you become completely dependent upon the system. You then struggle when the system starts to get tight.

There are people who don't make much but make ends meet. They aren't spending their days watching TV and such though, they are finding ways to get around their economic shortcomings.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


BTW, I work at an electronics retail. There are no shortage of people financing for stuff they cannot afford.

reply to post by marg6043


Oh you know I completely and totally agree with you.
In fact I will go so far as to say that there is no economy without lower and middle class Americans.
If the Government bankrupts the lower and middle class then they will in turn bankrupt America.
Like I said the trickle down theory is a failure, everyone says socialism is a dirty word in America but...we MUST look at our past mistakes and make deep, sweeping changes for the future, if not it will not be just the poor and middle class that suffers it will be everyone unless they have the funds to move out of the country.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


Socialism is bad because you take the people you don't trust to make decisions, give them all the power over your life, then give them an army to enforce it.

Socialism just gives more and more power to government. The mistake is letting the hard times make us weak and allow government to turn this country more socialist.

reply to post by grimreaper797


Um, yeah in the past milk was $1.50 a gallon, eggs were .75 and a loaf of bread was less than a buck. I remember because it was just a couple of years ago.
Also energy utilities went up a whopping 25% in just one year, gas prices were $2.00 a gallon just 2 1/2 years ago and health insurance rose at an enormous rate over the last 5 years.
So yes families should be quite comfortable living on $50,000 if it were say 1998.

Because you work in retail does not mean that you can make sweeping statements about all Americans, well you can but it doesnt mean you are right.
Honestly making that your "proof" kinda makes me doubt everything.

reply to post by SEEWHATUDO


Interesting that today in the markets news it was talks about why the markets seems to gain one step and fall five behind since the bail out, and one expert said that the reason is that the confidence on the US markets is very low and many of the wealthy investors are leaving the US markets and keeping the money oversea.

This is not very good as without this wealthy investors America will not be able to recuperate.

Paulson is to talk in about 30 minutes again so I guess he is coming to ease he fall out today.

But as the government is trying so hard to "fix" the financial sector they are completely forgetting that the financial sector can not help the economy if the consumers of America doesn't have the confidence and the means to invest in the economy through spending.

Banks knows this they know that the American consumer is beyond their means and that offering loans to them is going to be nothing but perpetuation debt and the merry go around will never end.

If our nation doesn't find a way to start producing wealth I don't see how we are to get out of a total bankruptcy.

So,it took them about 6 months to catch up with the American people and finally admit that we are in a recession.. Meanwhile, the American people are NOW saying that we are entering a depression I think I have to ride with the people on this one. The day the stocks lost 777 points in one day was the beginning of the second Great Depression. I'm sure I will see this in my sons history books when he is in high school (10 mon. old now). That date will be our modern day Black Tuesday.

Originally posted by grimreaper797
Growth hasn't been negative yet. Just because the stocks have been falling doesn't mean we are in a recession. We have been in a bear market. A bear market can result for a variety of reasons, not just a recession. This bear market has CAUSED us to currectly enter into a recession though. It will be defined by the negative growth in the 4th quater of 2008 and the first quater of 2009 as a result of this prolonged bear market in combination with a sudden credit freeze.

edit to add: The downward turn in stocks was an indicator that unless something changed a recession was in the future outlook, as it was. It was not a recession itself though, as many claim to be for some reason.

[edit on 15-10-2008 by grimreaper797]

Yeah, because when the president of the largest banking branch in the nation says "we're in a recession" you know better, and we're all just hyping it up. Ignorance is bliss, I guess.

reply to post by grimreaper797


Sorry to bring this to you but that is what the government of this nation has done with the bail out and have no problem doing it.

Originally posted by grimreaper797
Doesn't matter what NBER defines it as, the technical definition is two consecutive quaters of negative growth. All those other things are indicators. When employment is dropping, real income is going down, and retail is getting slow, that negative growth is in the card deck.

The market, the unemployment numbers, the retail numbers recently, they are all indicators of what is now here, and happening.

Ok if the definition is 2 quarters of negative growth then why is the FED coming out and saying we are in a recession? The fact is if the truth be told and the numbers werent doctored we WOULD have more than 2 months of negative growth, unemployment 10% at least, and inflation at 13% at least. But we get fake doctored government numbers. Sorry the government has lied to me way to many times I dont buy their crap anymore.

Originally posted by grimreaper797
reply to post by SEEWHATUDO

 

There use to be PLEANTY of people who survived on ALOT less, how did they do it? They didn't spend time on the internet, playing video games, and watching tv. This is what happens when you become completely dependent upon the system. You then struggle when the system starts to get tight.

There are people who don't make much but make ends meet. They aren't spending their days watching TV and such though, they are finding ways to get around their economic shortcomings.

Ok of there are plenty of people who dont rely on the system then why not let it crash like I have told you? The system is broke why not crash it and start over? There are plenty of people not reliant on it right? This system is set up for thievery and the working man is the victim. It needs to be changed.

Originally posted by grimreaper797
reply to post by SEEWHATUDO

 

Socialism is bad because you take the people you don't trust to make decisions, give them all the power over your life, then give them an army to enforce it.

Socialism just gives more and more power to government. The mistake is letting the hard times make us weak and allow government to turn this country more socialist.

Socialism does not work I agree with you. But our government chooses to do it which is ironic because we have been bashing on people like Chavez for how long for being a socialist. The fact is we are using socialism to bail out a lot of wealthy people right now.

Also I just want to go into the crashing system again. If you let these big banks fail the smaller banks that didnt make big gambles like the big ones would come in and buy their assets up. That is how a free market works. But hey who needs a free market when your cronies are suffering huh?

Recession, depression, worse? I dont really care either way. The Wall Street fools who are responsible will still be rich, the poor will get poorer and the middle class will continue to shrink. Been this way for years, even a great economy with the DOW surging doesnt stop this.

For the people this is going to effect negatively, too bad. Not to be too harsh, but thats my take on it. Anyone with half a brain should have seen something bad coming down the pipe in this regard. If you didnt take care of your money/job/etc... sucks to be you. Have fun in your tent.

For those who knew this was coming and bought precious metals, land, and stocked up or learned how to grow consumer goods that are going to rise in price, good for you, I hope you pull through fine.

Originally posted by Rinorino2

Its official: The US is in recession

www.--.com

The United States has entered a recession, the head of the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, says.

(visit the link for the full news article)

What's this... selective hearing?

sure the economy is down and deserves to be in the technical definition of a 'recession'
but a SF head of the Fed Reserve is just trying to get some name recognization...by declaring a 'recession' as of today...

what i'd like to point out is that the Fed/Treasury Recapitalization of the banks via a $250bn influx of money has one major BS aspect.

because the Fed/Treasury are 'buying' preferred stocks in these banks ---> this tactic Allows the CEOs/CFOs/next 2 tiers of Execs to keep their bonuses and stock options/awards -- despite the 'golden parachute' clauses (which were put in the 'Recovery Plan' to molify the masses)


next... the PPI is evidently the info the SF chairman was using as the qualifier for the 'recession' statement...
i say the PPI (Producer Price Index) being in a sort of bad way... is not a quantifier to say if the larger economy is in 'recession' ...

spending, GDP, the exchange of goods & services...along with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) are more relevant to see where 'we' are at & where 'we' are going