Ukraine in snap election warning

Ukraine in snap election warning

news.bbc.co.uk

Mr. Yushcenko's supporters walked out in protest following new laws trimming the presidents powers.
The laws were introduced by the pro-Russian opposition and backed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's party.

"A political and constitutional coup d'etat has started in the parliament,"Mr.Yushcenko said in a television speech.

(visit the link for the full news article)



[edit on 3-9-2008 by all2human]

This is a direct result of Yushcenko's anti-Russian stance amid the Rusi/Georgian war,now threatening to raise port rent to the Russia black sea fleet . For those who are unaware, This is the same man who was,radioactively poisoned from the suspected KGB of Russia for his pro western stance.but now, He has next to no chance of winning a new election,if the pro-Russian party succeeds,Ukraine can say good-bye to a NATO membership. Russia is vehemently opposed to any further NATO expansion, and Ukraine is a potential member,it would be a huge strategic blow to the western union,and would galvanize Russia's authority throughout the region. This is Interesting timing to say the least

news.bbc.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)











[edit on 3-9-2008 by all2human]

This could very well be "Putin's response" to NATO ships in the area,possibly influencing heavily/overthrowing a government from within,to have more control over their strategically important port. Dissolve NATO influence in the Black sea and surrounding countries,Russia may be Emerging as a powerful, influential global player that will not be bullied byUSA/ NATO . We should be following these developments closely, The timing of this, is just too coincidental












[edit on 3-9-2008 by all2human]

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Ukraine Government Near Collapse

MOSCOW — The Western-leaning governing coalition in Ukraine, which took power during the Orange Revolution in 2004 but has endured repeated tumult ever since, appeared once again near collapse on Wednesday.

The president of Ukraine, Viktor A. Yushchenko, asserted that he was the victim of a “political and constitutional coup” carried out by his ally, Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko, and threatened new parliamentary elections. She blamed him, saying he was seeking ways to rebuild his flagging popular support.

The instability erupted on the eve of a visit to Ukraine by Vice President Dick Cheney, who arrived in the region to show his support for American allies in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Georgia last month.

Mr. Yushchenko criticized Ms. Tymoshenko after her party joined forces with the leading opposition bloc, the Party of Regions, in Parliament to approve legislation that would curtail the president’s powers.

The Party of Regions, led by a former prime minister, Viktor F. Yanukovich, has warm relations with Russia, while Mr. Yushchenko does not, and under his leadership Ukraine condemned the Kremlin over the fighting in Georgia.

Mr. Cheney is to arrive in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, on Thursday, before heading to Ukraine to meet with Mr. Yushchenko. Both countries have drawn the ire of Russia, their neighbor, because of their close ties to the West and desire to join NATO.

While relations with Russia and the West were in the background, much of the wrangling in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, on Wednesday stemmed from efforts by the three major political leaders to position themselves for presidential elections in January 2010.

Mr. Yushchenko, whose party had been allied with Ms. Tymoshenko’s in Parliament, said his party would withdraw from the governing coalition, adding that a new one had to be formed. He seemed to be daring Ms. Tymoshenko to formally join with the pro-Moscow Party of Regions, a move that might upset her supporters.

In a televised statement, Mr. Yushchenko denounced Ms. Tymoshenko’s decision to have her party vote with the Party of Regions on the measure curbing presidential powers.

“There is only one reason for this, in my opinion: the fight for power,” he said. “Deaf to your problems and needs. A cynical and cruel fight for power.”

Ms. Tymoshenko said that she had no intention of breaking the governing coalition and would resist new elections.

“We believe that it is simply hysterics and irresponsible steps, that the democratic coalition must live and work,” she said. “And I think that everyone who wants to serve Ukraine understands this.”

Ms. Tymoshenko became prime minister after the Orange Revolution, which was touched off after Mr. Yushchenko lost a presidential election that was deemed to have been stolen by supporters of his opponent, Mr. Yanukovich, who was backed by the Kremlin.

Ms. Tymoshenko became a symbol of the Orange Revolution and one of the best-known politicians in Eastern Europe. But after she feuded with Mr. Yushchenko, he dismissed her.

Mr. Yanukovich later became prime minister, and then Ms. Tymoshenko made a comeback after performing well in new parliamentary elections.

(The New York Times)

Regarding Ukraine - there is major political instability there at the moment. However this is not some "coup" attempt by Russia. This is internal realignment of Ukrainian political parties that was a long time in the making.

Yuschenko held on to power only thanks to his alliance with Timoshenko. Timoshenko only used Yuschenko to get to power in Parliament during the Orange Revolution - and now she doesn't need him anymore. So she is joining sides with the rest of Yuschenko's opposition to limit his powers. This has little to do with Russia - this is Yuschenko's allies betraying him.

In fact Yuschenko is as good as finished, and has no chance in the next election. His popularity rating is now below 9%. The people see that he lied to them during the Orange Revolution-Coup. Their standard of living isn't better but worse than it was. The economy is crumbling. The country is split in two over relations with Russia. 65% oppose NATO membership while Yuschenko pushed it through.




Yuschenko's game is over. He stayed in power this long thanks to an alliance with Timoshenko. Now she is going her own way. Although she is not pro-Russian in any sense, she found it beneficial to ally with Yuschenko's pro-Russia opposition in the Parliament. Now they have enough power (votes) to impeach him, and all they need is a good enough reason (think Clinton's sex scandal).


Seeing what is happening, Yuschenko wants to get rid of the Parliament and call for reelection. In this case the opposition parties would still win, but it would give him some extra time to solidify and centralize his power. The Ukrainian Supreme Court will likely vote against his decision to get rid of the Parliament as unconstitutional. But even if it supports his decision - the opposition may stage a peaceful revolution of their own to force him to resign.


This split between Yuschenko and Timoshenko has been predicted for over a year now. All it needed was a catalyst. The catalyst in this case is Yuschenko driving Ukraine-Russia relations into the ground because of his pro-U.S. and pro-NATO agenda.

Originally posted by all2human
This is a direct result of Yushcenko's anti-Russian stance amid the Rusi/Georgian war

What you speak of is a catalyst - not a cause. The cause of what is happening is Yuschenko forming a temporary political alliance with Timoshenko - who wants power for herself. He knew the alliance wasn't stable, but he needed her and she needed him. Now she no longer needs him - and has plans to run for election herself. However she is not pro-Kremlin either, nor does she aim to please the U.S. Her path lies somewhere in between.

Originally posted by all2human
now threatening to raise port rent to the Russia black sea fleet.

Yuschenko knows well enough that Ukraine depends on Russia for energy, which fuels its economy. You do not bite the hand that feeds you. U.S. knows this well enough in its relations with Saudi Arabia.

Originally posted by all2human
For those who are unaware, This is the same man who was,radioactively poisoned

No proof. There is no consensus in the European medical community. This is a rumor.

Originally posted by all2human
from the suspected KGB of Russia

There is no KGB in Russia. Not for the last 19 years. Get your agencies together.

Originally posted by all2human
but now, He has next to no chance of winning a new election

Because his support ratings nationwide stand at about 9%. And you thought Bush was unpopular.

Originally posted by all2human
if the pro-Russian party succeeds

Timoshenko is not pro-Russian. She is the most likely victor in the next elections. And she has allied with the pro-Russian Party of Regions to achieve her political goals.

Originally posted by all2human
Russia is vehemently opposed to any further NATO expansion

And 65% of Ukraine is against joining NATO.

Originally posted by all2human
it would be a huge strategic blow to the western union

Western Union? Isn't that a finance firm specializing in money transfers?

Originally posted by all2human
would galvanize Russia's authority throughout the region.

What authority? Over whom? The Party of Regions is pro-Russian, but that doesn't mean it's controlled by Russia. And Russia's "authority" lies in oil and gas. As long as Ukraine needs it - Russia will have some authority.

Originally posted by all2human
This could very well be "Putin's response" to NATO ships in the area

The person who innitiated this political upheaval is Timoshenko. She has nothing to do with Putin and has never been pro-Kremlin.

Originally posted by all2human
possibly influencing heavily/overthrowing a government from within,to have more control over their strategically important port.

If you think this is just about Sevastopol think again. Ukraine's economy is crumbling from Yuschenko's idiotic choices. The people are unhappy. The country is split in two. Yuschenko hasn't made any progress in any political or social sphere while he was President. Ukraine wants him gone - it is fairly clear. Obviously Russia does too.

Originally posted by all2human
Dissolve NATO influence in the Black sea

What is it going to dissolve? NATO has no influence in Ukraine. It never did. It still doesn't. And it likely won't. At this point, this will "prevent" rather than dissolve NATO's growing influence.

Maloy,i understand your pro Russian stance and i generally respect your point of view, but derailing and picking apart this thread is unnecessary.At no point have i stated i was certain of Putin/Russian involvement, and i was careful not to give the impression that i obtained any FACTS,or PROOF, something YOU know all too well about
I won't dissect your posts to make my point and/to discredit you. This is ATS,where people can discuss ideas and opinions,i will add that your research skills are second to none! ,but this is not an official news site, I am sorry if you felt misled.
It is not outside of the realm of possibility, that Russia has a hand in Ukraine's government,that is, unless you yourself can provide proof





[edit on 3-9-2008 by all2human]

Originally posted by all2human
It is not out of the realm of possibility that Russia has a hand in Ukraine's government,that is, unless you yourself can provide proof

Russia does have a role - but it is not what you may think. Here is a summary of what actually happened:


There are tree sides in Ukrainian politics:

1. pro-U.S./NATO Yuschenko.

2. pro-Western but largely independent Timoshenko

3. pro-Russian Party of Regions and allied opposition



Timoshenko's alliance with Yuschenko was always seen as temporary. She has different goals and ideals than he does. She also sees the Yanukovich and Party of Regions as opposition, and shares little with them. However to get to where she is she needed an alliance - and chose Yuschenko. Now Yuschenko centralized power, and she sees him as a threat. Her only choice to undermine his growing power is to ally with Yanukovich. This is only temporary, untill the next elections where she will run with her own agenda.


Now here is where Russia comes in: Timoshenko is a businesswoman first, and a politicians second. She has her hand in many international projects and companies, and benefits greatly from her enterprises. One of her umbrella energy companies recently entered a very lucrative deal with Russian oil/gas company for transport of energy to Ukraine and through Ukraine on to Europe. This deal became threatened when Yuschenko started cutting ties to Russia and outright threatening Russia and the status of the Black Sea Fleet. To prevent further damage, Timoshenko used this opportunity to quickly but quietly rally against Yuschenko - and to innitiate reforms meant to ease the impeachment process.




As you see business and economy won out, and so did Russia. There is nothing illegal or unconstitutional in her party's reallignment. Now the Ukrainian Parliament is effectively in charge and has more power than the President. In fact it was the Parliament that blocked Yuschenko's recent decision to freeze the actions of the Black Sea Fleet for duration of the conflict in Georgia.

Yuschenko is now powerless. He only has the power to disolve the Parliament, and call for Parliamentary reelections - but that needs an approval of the Supreme Court. He was at odds with Parliament for sometime now, and already disolved it once. Regardless of the Court decision, my bet is that the Parliament will not give-in. This is a start of a major power struggle. Obviously both Russia and U.S. have a stake. But either way - Yuschenko does not have much time before he is gone.

[edit on 3-9-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by all2human
I won't dissect your posts to make my point and/to discredit you.
[edit on 3-9-2008 by all2human]

By using terms like 'KGB', which hasn't existed for two decades, instead of 'FSB' you only discredit yourself. I'm surprised he even bothered to correct your post given that it was essentially a hate speech.

Originally posted by blablablaxyz

Originally posted by all2human
I won't dissect your posts to make my point and/to discredit you.
[edit on 3-9-2008 by all2human]

By using terms like 'KGB', which hasn't existed for two decades, instead of 'FSB' you only discredit yourself. I'm surprised he even bothered to correct your post given that it was essentially a hate speech.

\
Listen pal,this thread is about the changing situation in Ukraine's goverment, I
respect Maloy highly and share many of his views, but For you to say any of my posts are as you say"hate speech", is just bs and I would ask you to elaborate.Excuse me for using "kGB", but I don't need a political science degree to understand Russia's economic,political,military interests in Crimea/Ukraine,
NATO and the EU have a lot to lose in this region if Georgia and Ukraine become unavailable


[edit on 4-9-2008 by all2human]

As usual, Maloy is providing in-depth analysis.

Here's what the Ukranian people think of the current politicos;

According to Ukrainian popularity polls, Tymoshenko currently enjoys at least 25% of voter support. Leader of the oppositional Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych is trailing with 20%, while President Viktor Yushchenko's popularity rating has plummeted to a mere 6%.

en.rian.ru...

Oil, oil, guns and oil.

Makes me wonder how this will affect the Nabucco pipeline that Dick Cheney is pushing for in the region;

www.nabucco-pipeline.com...

Dick Cheney's guns and oil tour of the region;

www.abovetopsecret.com...

For more info on the Ukrainian parliament situation, see;

news.theage.com.au...
afp.google.com...
www.newstatesman.com...

At the root of this and other incidences in the region is the American/Russian conflict over oil.

impo

Well I do not think that Ukraine has as much to do with oil as say Georgia or Azerbaijan. Ukraine has no major oil resources, and it only moderately important as far as oil pipelines go, because Russia transfers some of its export oil through Ukraine to Europe. Ukraine plays more of a role in gas - and again only as a transport hub. Much of the Russian gas exports to Europe go through Ukrainian pipeline infrastructure. But even then, Russia already has several new pipeline projects under way that would bypass Ukraine.


As I see it - the main reason why U.S. is interested in Ukraine is because NATO bases there would complete the buffer zone around Russia. Crimean naval bases are part of the deal too, but I don't see them playing too huge of a role.

Vice pres. Dick Cheney visits Ukraine, amid government turmoil


news.bbc.co.uk...
BBC NEWS | World | Europe | US vice-president in Ukraine


[edit on 4-9-2008 by all2human]

Is Dick the new ambassador of "Democracy" or something? Does the Bush administration not have anyone else to send, who would appear a slight bit more honest and trustworthy? Or does he act as a sort of supervisor for the outlying puppers Saakashvili and Yuschenko? Ukrainians know who Dick is - and that he is hardly a "democratic reformer" of any sort.

reply to post by maloy


I agree,no one should expect anything positive to come from Dick Cheney's visit. Maybe Yanukovich has been asked to go duck hunting or perhaps he has been invited to dine with Yushchenko on Saakashvilis necktie.


[edit on 4-9-2008 by all2human]

Here are some insightful opinions of Ukrainians regarding the political crisis on BBC:

news.bbc.co.uk...

Of course keep in mind the demographic - these are Ukrainians who can speak english and visit Western media websites.



But overall opinion both on BBC and elsewhere in the forums I frequent seems to be that Ukrainians are fed up with Yuschenko and with political intrigues between all three sides. Yuschenko did not live up to what he promised, he made no democratic or economic progress, and he worsened Ukraine's relations with their main trading partner Russia. There is virtually no chance of him making a comeback in the next elections. He is finished.



The main question to ask - is what will happen between Timoshenko and Yanukovich. Both have about the same number of Parliamentary votes. Both want an end to Yuschenko's pro-U.S. agenda. But they have a widely different ideals and agendas. Since it will no doubt come down to these two in the next elections - the people will ultimately have to choose one side or the other in the run-offs. At this point there is no predicting who they will choose.

But I can say this - Yanukovich's policies and views are well known and he is no flip-floper so to speak. Timoshenko on the other hand has constantly swayed whichever way the wind blows. She sides with those who are more popular, feeding on their popularity. No one really knows for sure what her agenda is, what policies she would enact as President, or whether she would side with U.S./NATO, Russia, EU, or neither. This is why my bet is on Yanukovich (ruling out another Orange-Revolution-like coup of course). At this point Ukrainians want decisive politicians who stand behind their talk.

I honestly believe that the best choice for Ukraine would be to stay neutral, and not side with either Russia or US/NATO. Perhaps a path towards the EU with healthy relations with Russia and other neighbors would be most beneficial. This is not really what Yanukovich is after. If this is what Timoshenko is after, then I would support her. But the problem is - no one really knows what she is after or if she can be trusted anymore.

[edit on 4-9-2008 by maloy]

news.bbc.co.uk...
Cheney seeks to bolster Ukraine

content from external source:

The Ukraine president has warned that his country is a hostage in a war waged by Russia against countries in the old Soviet bloc.

European officials have suggested that Ukraine could be the next flashpoint for tensions between Russia and the West.





[edit on 5-9-2008 by all2human]

blog.kievukraine.info...
Kiev Ukraine News Blog

content from external source:


EU To Put Brakes On Quick Membership For Ukraine -
There is a lot at stake for Ukraine.


[edit on 5-9-2008 by all2human]

Originally posted by maloy






"I honestly believe that the best choice for Ukraine would be to stay neutral, and not side with either Russia or US/NATO. Perhaps a path towards the EU with healthy relations with Russia and other neighbors would be most beneficial".

I 100% agree,we do not need a nuclear re-peat of Georgia/Russia conflict. We all know the current US administration cannot be trusted, esp now with their term over,and nothing to lose mentality,
Let us hope Ukraine stabilizes,if it means a presidential shake-up,so be it.
I can only hope the same for Georgia
We cannot afford another Great war.



[edit on 8-9-2008 by all2human]

[edit on 8-9-2008 by all2human]