Well this Hindenberg seems to have been a reliable signal already. Its definately one of those crazy little Tech Analysis things that belongs on ATS
as much as it does on CNBC (don't think I've heard them talk about it). Tech Analysis isn't one of my stronger or more developed skillsets but it
is very interesting. This Hindenberg Omen however is something that I will definately have to keep an eye on. There have been a couple of unconfirmed
omens, the ones without a confirming second signal, since I've been aware of it. They came and passed without a second and people commented and
forgot.
Technical Analysis appeared pretty damn crazy to me at first, like some cardiac arest patients chart drawn on by a "special child", but it's
intersting. I forget the name but there are some dates based off of astrology that some people follow, then there are the fibonacci levels, and ALL
the various acronyms you use everyday. Lots of people use some sort of TA so it's something that anyone who does any trading should at least be aware
off. In my Opinion a good company/stock still trumps TA over the long term though.
The Hindy definately deserves its own thread though cudos to the OP. I almost did.
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New Hindenburg Omen today - June 30th, 2008, 6 for the Month of June
www.technicalindicatorindex.com...
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Promo,
Two is the magic number when it comes to Hindenberg Omens. It doesn't appear that more than two in a cluster has any affect on probabilities of a
crash event. The decline over the past couple of weeks has already made it a "good signal". A crash event is still possible IMO, but if markets
bounce from here the Hindy will not be invalidated. Could see fireworks before the fourth.
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A stock market crash is possible now that the NYSE no longer uses Trading curbs... en.wikipedia.org... Since the curbing program
has been lifted...as you can tell, the market has fallen off a cliff.
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Here’s the data for all Hindenburg Omens over the past 25 years:
Date of 1st Hindenburg
Omen Signal # of Signals
in Cluster DJIA Subsequent
% Decline
Time Until Decline
Bottomed
06/06/2008 6 In Progress In Progress
10/16/2007 9 16.3% 99 days
06/13/2007 8 7.1% 64 days
04/07/2006 9 7.0% 34 days
09/21/2005 (1) 5 2.2% 22 days
04/13/2004 (2) 5 5.4% 30 days
06/20/2002 5 15.8% 30 days
06/20/2002 5 23.9% 112 days
06/20/2001 2 25.5% 93 days
03/12/2001 4 11.4% 11 days
09/15/2000 9 12.4% 33 days
07/26/2000 3 9.0% 83 days
01/24/2000 6 16.4% 44 days
06/15/1999 2 6.7% 122 days
02/22/1998 (3) 2 0.2% 1 day
07/21/1998 1 19.7% 41 days
12/11/1997 11 5.8% 32 days
06/12/1996 3 8.8% 34 days
10/09/1995 6 1.7% 1 day
09/19/1994 7 8.2% 65 days
01/25/1994 14 9.6% 69 days
11/03/1993 3 2.1% 2 days
12/02/1991 9 3.5% 7 days
06/27/1990 17 16.3% 91 days
11/01/1989 36 5.0% 91 days
10/11/1989 2 10.0% 5 days
09/14/1987 5 38.2% 36 days
07/14/1986 9 3.6% 21 days
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