Sit-X.. Plague..

As far as 'SIT-X's' go,this could possibly be the most likely..

An outbreak of a 'natural' epidemic,deliberate 'man-made' such as a biological attack,or accidental man-made..'containment failure' from a lab for eg..

This will,of course,put a spanner in the works of a survival GROUP as you would be in fear of contracting human-mutated bird-flu,gerbil-flu,andromeda strain..whatever..

If we could,for the sake of a constant..assume THIS PLAGUE has an incubation period of 6 months,human contact spread(touch/airborne within 3 cubic metres and transmittable after death of host) and a fatality rate of 100%..

(I chose these parameters as it would have a definitive lifespan be survivable given precautions and isolation..)
And you can bet martial law would be enforced lethally to attempt to contain it.

Oh yeah.. and except for going and hiding on an desert island for the rest of my life, I wouldn't have a clue..

Enlighten me..

Surely it would be impossible to survive unless you'd been isolated for 6 months plus. All you could do is quarantine yourself and hope for the best.

I would probably get in my car immediately and go somewhere extremely remote. Even doing this I wouldn't stand much chance because I would need to refuel at some point meaning entering areas where other people are/ were recently. Food would be difficult to come by too.

I would probably choose to risk it and die with loved ones rather than alone in the wilderness.

the 6 month incubation you cite , is IMHO virtually impssible to contain / counter

ask yourelf - how many people have you had < 3m contact with in the last 3 months ?????????? and more imortantly how did they interact with in the 3 months before that ?

the only groups with a fighting chance would be remote islands , scienticic stations or ships etc who could break contact after the first case is reported - and monitor all persons who had had outside contact in the previous 6 months - and when the last person with outside contact had been symptom free for > 6 months - they would know they were safe

but how would they get supplies ?

You mentioned an "incubation time of 6 months."

Most of the real killers in human history, the actual threats to the species, have very brief incubation times, like 3-10 days. One reason for this is that people are not generally contagious until they show specific symptoms. Another reason shorter incubation times is that a long period of comparatively slow reproduction within the body gives the host a better chance of developing a response to the pathogen, it also means the disease spreads much more slowly.

Despite its horrific course and impact on the total population, HIV is not the threat to human survival that many have portrayed it to be. It definitely threatens sexually active persons; but the number of persons in society who are sexually active turns out to be a minority; and the disease self-selects against those who are promiscuous.

But you're on the right track.

10% of all humans who have ever lived, have died of just one disease: malaria. Malaria has been with us for thousands of years because its life cycle involves mosquitos as well as humans, and because it has a fairly lengthy course, which is sometimes not lethal. In fact, malaria has mutated a bit over the millennia, learning how to reproduce without killing all its hosts.

Now, the Black Death is an example from the opposite end of the spectrum. The Black Death was definitely not the Bubonic plague, which has markedly different symptoms. Scientists have recently proven that the BD was also not transmitted by tics and fleas on rats--as a matter of fact, mouse and rat populations were much higher after the Black Death receded, and were comparatively rare creatures in Europe before the plague. The plague spread in rural areas just as quickly in cities, which tends to rule out mice and some kind of sneezing as a disease vector. But it leaves the possibility of an avian vector. So it remains a great mystery.

We don't know what the Black Death really was--it killed off all potential hosts, and probably went extinct. And it actually hit Europe in a series of waves, over a period of 50 years, it killed 75% of the European population. . . .

A disease like scarlet fever or typhus could really do a number on humans, particularly if it has a water-bourne component; in the wake of a flood or earthquake, those types of diseases kill thousands. Any time you have decaying corpses that can spread the disease, you'll end up with a genuine plague--which kills most of the people in a war.

I think maximum damage would be a mucous-borne disease that induces sneezing; you know that when you sneeze you spray a cloud of mucous about 5 feet. Give it a 3 day incubation with absolutely no discernable symptoms,(allowing it to spread internationally by airlines and truckers), then a slow progression into illness and death over about 10 days, during which the host is very contagious. (That will take out most healthcare systems). Go further and say the mucous lining of the lungs put contagious particles into the air even while a corpse decays---that way, as the bodies pile up, the cities become deadlier and deadlier.

Just a few suggestions that I think you'd get to 99% mortality.

Lovely. have a nice day.

.

If you're gonna pick a toughie..you might as well make it a good un..

Like you guys say.. The key would have to be prepared ..to bug out almost instantaneously,
Remote stations/posts would have it lucky,cities would be almost doomed from the beginning unless you didn't stop to think.

Imagine the immediate panic and paranoia as you start to recount where you've may have been exposed.
Most teens would be OK though as they don't leave their rooms and playstations long enough

Ok.. you have now become aware of the very first emerging cases and are moving away from heavily populated areas..
scenario,chances are you may have escaped infection so far..(maybe )

Must admit an infectious disease with an incubation period of six months..not heard of one!!...most infectious diseaseses I can think of have an incubation period of one to three week....we are talking about infection ..bacteriological and viral here I presume!!??

Six months is a long incubation period for an infectious disease!!

Well, the 'good' thing about a plague Sit-X is that the survivors will not have to fight for food for quite a while. But preparing for a deadly plague with a incubation time of 6 months is only to keep healthy and hope your system can deal with the disease i think. So eat your veggies and maybe your immune system can deal with whatever is out there i'd say .

Other than that i think you won't be able to circumvent anything like that other than to go live in a remote area and get totally self-sufficient.

Originally posted by Harman
But preparing for a deadly plague with a incubation time of 6 months is only to keep healthy and hope your system can deal with the disease i think. So eat your veggies and maybe your immune system can deal with whatever is out there i'd say

.

Nope.. Catch it and you're dead.. 100% mortality rate.No discovered cure yet..

Originally posted by shuck
we are talking about infection ..bacteriological and viral here I presume!!?

Viral..blood/mucus/limited airborne 3 cubic metres from host (breath/sneeze)
6 months from ..

Contact/infection..
Symptoms say.... 1 Month
Death ..6 month tops

Corpses remain infectious until decomposition/disposal..

Hey it's my plague.. I make the rules..

[edit on 20-5-2008 by AGENT_T]

Originally posted by AGENT_T

Nope.. Catch it and you're dead.. 100% mortality rate.No discovered cure yet..

Ok, fair enough . Then i would say my second part is the only way, and you would have started yesterday and hope that the 6 month killer has not been initiated yet.

Other than that i think you won't be able to circumvent anything like that other than to go live in a remote area and get totally self-sufficient.

You've brought up something i've only really considered in terms of an invasion of Rad-Zombies, but i suppose similarities could be made to that of a plague.

My #1 suggestion would be to get ahold of some hazmat gear, suit yourself up, pack a few more in an air-tight container, and go hunt down some microbiologists.

I wouldn't focus so much on a cure as a plague for a plague - at least with the engineered plague a cure would be that much easier to create.

Other than that, i would be prepared to say that the Hazmat suit would be Essential to survival - you wouldn't risk going outside without one.

In a situation like this would the best bet not be to either 1) seal up your house and wait it out or 2) head for the hills and stay away from any areas where other people might be?

You would obviously need supplies to live off while plague runs it's course, I'd go and loot my nearest shop for the essentials ( you wouldn't catch me standing in a queu with tom,dick and harry filling my space with there possibly contaminated breath!).

One more thing, once this plague has been discovered is there an estimate of what percentage of the population has already contracted it?



[edit on 20-5-2008 by fred3110]

Question for the OP: Is this Plague spread only by human contact/human proximity?

I do recall from somewhere that the bubonic plague was wrongly attributed to Rats when it was infact the flies feasting off Rat crap then passing it onto humans.

Originally posted by Anti-Tyrant
Question for the OP: Is this Plague spread only by human contact/human

YUP..

You've brought up a scary but fascinating point already..
The fact that 'they' could consider manufacturing a more 'efficient' plague(EDIT ..controllable and curable) to kill faster thus decreasing the amount of 'infectors'.

Would 'micro-nukes' be considered for densely populated areas?
Severe measures for a severe threat.. hmmmm.

[edit on 20-5-2008 by AGENT_T]

Just get out of the city, worst place to be in a case like this.

By Micro-Nuke you mean tactical nukes, typically smaller yields and hardly any fall-out.
Yeah they'd do the trick, IF you catch it early.

To be honest the whole concept of killer plagues is based on the basis of a 'slow' moving but deadly killer that takes hold and people pass it around.
If the plague doesn't 'linger' and hang around then it has an increased chance of killing it's host too quickly.

The Black Death typically was a slow moving deadly (but not 100% mortality) killer is why it caused so much chaos.

Contrast this to the 'English Sweats' Disease that swept the country in the 15th and 16th century. It killed everyone it infected but tended to 'burn out' so quickly in one area it never took hold enough to be passed around like the Black Death did.

Great points guys..

I'm trying to imagine what kind of social interaction you would have if
1) you escaped the plague,six months had passed so you know you were safe..
2) Other 'survivors' have stumbled across your hideaway..

After that length of time any normal person would be quite desperate for some company/conversation/information.. but if you accepted them into your 'stockade' you'd have to reasonably require a further six months of some form of quarantine in case they'd recently came into contact with the infection..

Trust,of course,is the biggest factor..
What if they had it?..they KNEW they had it?..but were desperate to not die alone..So they were playing dumb about they possibility of contracting it.

How you could balance the risk of infection against turning away another survivor?.
(Especially if it was someone like Jessica Alba.. whole new story ... so won't go there.. )

I think some of you are missing the point here. If the incubation period is 6 months (unheard of in any plague to-date) then by the time people start showing symptoms, it would already be too late ..... You would either have it or not. The only way you could be sure is to have a blood test. The best you could hope for is a quick painless death.

You could bet Martial Law would be declared and Quarantine conditions would be imposed backed up by the use of deadly force, so ''heading for the hills'' would not be an option.

Only people like scientists stationed in remote places like Antarctica or crews of nuclear powered submarines are likely to be 'safe'.

I know this scenario is hypothetical, but it is very unlkely (to the statistics the OP has set) as plagues, viruses, diseases etc, like a quick 'turn-around'. The good ones or bad ones which ever way you look at it, like short incubations before symptoms, a simple high infection rate/method, a reasonable duration on the host before killing it. The plague too likes to procreate, it is a lifeform afterall.

To me, the ''perfect'' disease/plague/virus would be one with Malaria and Ebola crossed together to form a hybrid, still with mosquitoes as the carrier.

Nice hypothetical scenario AgentT! Well not "nice" exactly, but you know what I mean.

Only steps I can think of would be to:

1. Get yourself an NBC suit- it would be useful in pretty much any sitX involving biological or radiation scenarios. I doubt there would be much chemical warfare, but it cant hurt to be prepared!

2. Drive out as far as possible from the major urban town centres. Towns = certain death in a plague. I would suggest Lake district, Yorkshire moors or scotland if possible.

3. Ideally you should get yourself to an island to prevent infection... perhaps one of the remote islands of scotland if possible!

4. Wait it out. Unfortunately with a 6 month incubation time... that will translate to a huge amount of time waiting. It would probably be better to just live on the island itself, set up home there. Maybe venture back into the cities after five years or so with your NBC suit, check if anything has improved.

Originally posted by Wotan..If the incubation period is 6 months (unheard of in any plague to-date) then by the time people start showing symptoms, it would already be too late ........

Sorry.. I think my use of the word incubation was incorrect..


Instant infection with initial contact..

Symptoms 1 month..
Death.. 6 month..

Hope that gives a little more 'Hope/chance'

OKAY!!

START AGAIN...

SCENARIO FOR 'AGENT_X' PLAGUE..

A Team of 14 international astronauts have just returned from studying a passing comet..this involved passing through the 'tail' with a scoop for samples..
These were studied successfully,found to contain unknown microbes and contained at all times within the space shuttle..

Upon re-entry one of the sample phials has fractured and the recycled air has meant that all 14 members have been exposed unwittingly..

They were then passed through a 1 week decontamination upon landing..again 'successfully' and during the de-briefing they were informed the microbes were inactive..
( let's skip the real life protocol )

They then took part in numerous news conferences about this fantastic new discovery of proof of life travelling through space piggy-backing on asteroids/comets/meteor etc.

This ,of course, exposed them to a number of reporters.. who then went to their respective countries exposing everyone travelling on their plane..

After returning to their own respective countries,one month later,ALL astronauts started showing symptoms,
Skin rash,bloodshot eyes,pale skin,increasing temperature and respiratory difficulties (coughing sneezing)..

They were treated with regular meds but with limited success as they could only alleviate the symptoms..not the unknown infection..

Of course ALL astronauts were quarantined..but as cause was unknown it was hushed up..

One week later ALL REPORTERS who were present at news conference went the same way..Then ALL Passengers on plane with both reporters AND astronauts..


SOOOOO!!!!!...

6 WEEKS AFTER FIRST EXPOSURE...
YOU have just seen the breaking news story..

Already..
14 ASTRONAUTS ON ALL CONTINENTS..
100 REPORTERS/CAMARAMEN LIKEWISE..
10,000 INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS AND AIRLINE STAFF..
ALL SICK...NO CURE FOUND YET!!..OUTLOOK ..POOR!!

You know where it has come from originally..
You DON'T know if it's fatal yet.. (but it is,100% effective)
All you DO know is that it appears to be at a level of contagion unheard of..
You KNOW this emergency is being discussed behind locked doors at this very moment..

You have to act NOW!!

Over to you.. Have fun..

[edit on 26-5-2008 by AGENT_T]