An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Magnitude 3.0 - WESTERN MONTANA
2009 January 10 01:33:23 UTC

47.093°N, 113.976°W
Depth 29.4 km (18.3 miles)
Region WESTERN MONTANA
Distances 6 km (4 miles) ENE (72°) from Evaro, MT
12 km (8 miles) SE (135°) from Arlee, MT
20 km (12 miles) NE (37°) from Wye, MT
24 km (15 miles) N (354°) from East Missoula, MT

Something to keep in mind is that we are in a super moon phase, just slightly weaker than last month's moon that got so much press. Berkland gives a decent description of it here. I don't really agree with his prediction methods as he basically predicts the same thing every month, but his theory on the window of increased activity related to moon and tides does hold water IMO. Even the stodgy USGS admits there is *some* connection, as minor as it may be.

No significant correlations have been identified between the rate of earthquake occurrence and the semi-diurnal tides when using large earthquake catalogs. There have, however, been some small but significant correlations reported between the semi-diurnal tides and the rate of occurrence of aftershocks in some volcanic regions, such as Mammoth Lakes. (UC Berkeley)

Picking up SoCal. If it's not San Bernadino aftershocks, then it's Coalinga over to San Simeon on the coast, or Whittier, Palm Springs or Northridge. Coalinga/San Simeon has been coming to mind, for some reason.

[edit on 1/9/09 by kattraxx]

Tonight I have distant but shrill sounding ear tones, two different tones at the same time. Pressure and stabbing pain in the very top of my head, confusion and clumsiness, visual disturbance. Pain under right side ribs too, right knee. It is currently 12:22am EST.

edit to add: It is now 110am, I am feeling crazy, my heart is going crazy with the palpitations, I cannot maintain my thoughts, the confusing feeling is strong. I feel that a large event is very near, something significant. I now have a stomach ache as well.

[edit on 10-1-2009 by space cadet]

423am, I just started having hot flashes, I am sweating and it is only 64 in here right now. It just felt like somebody turned a heater on right over me. Nausea too. My headache is gone, no stabbing feeling right now. Still have all other precursors though.

Okay...I am afraid I might have made a connection with something that is possibly very disturbing.

I just listened to Mr. Berklands (Geologist) interview and he said he's predicting a large event sometime this week due to the moon lining up with the earth and sun. He could not predict WHERE it would occur, but warned to be on the lookout for odd animal behavior, such as whales beaching themselves, dogs/cats running away, or birds heading inland. I knew there was something I had read that was bugging me and I just found it. Here is an excerpt from the RSOE site, describing what they are labeling as a biological hazard, although there is no indication that it's being caused by any ailment.

A mystery disease is striking California's huge flocks of pelicans, which are being found disoriented far from their usual habitat, and displaying extreme fatigue and bruising inside their beaks, reported Wednesday. Bird rescuers suspect that fatal algae toxins may be responsible for the scourge, but the birds do not display many of the symptoms associated with those toxins, which normally occur in the summer. Another suspect is run-off from the fire retardant that was used in huge amounts to battle wildfires along the coast last summer. The birds are usually seen flying in formation along the Pacific Coast or diving into the ocean to catch fish in their large beaks. But in recent weeks many have been found deep inland and far away from their usual routes. Adding to the consternation is that many of the dead pelicans are adults, while it is usually the younger birds that are the most frequent victims to disease. "We have ruled out starvation because there are plenty of fish in coastal waters right now," said Jay Holcomb, executive director of the northern California-based International Bird Rescue Research Centre. "We are seeking answers from all the experts we can find.")

Their update info states they have found some toxins in their blood, but state it isn't enough to explain what is going on with them. Perhaps it is nothing more than an unknown illness....or perhaps it is what Mr. Berkland was talking about. I think close attention needs to be paid to the animal behavior along the West coast.

reply to post by westcoast


I read that article last night, pretty strange, we noted this year that the Canadian geese that anually come here were not flying in their famous 'v' formation, I had never seen them fly so erratically, and they flew in one direction and turned and came right back towards us, another unusual thing to see them do.

Back in reply to this post on Jan 4 I said

Speaking of predictions, I think we should keep and eye on the region off the coast of NE Sth America, especially around lat 3 to 5 degrees Nth and 47 to 49 deg. W.

Well, nothing happened in that region within the time window I stated so I'm declaring this prediction a no hit. That's how it goes sometimes.

What's frustrating is that there has been a deal of activity in Sth America (including that 6.1 in Costa Rica on Jan 8, with its tragic consequences ) but I made no specific predictions for that region. This quake at 10 N, 84 W, cannot be correlated with a prediction for the region I gave. I did say that activity was more likely at 10 N, 48 W, but even within the same latitude, it's a long way away in longitude. It could be an antipodal effect, though, so I'll have to do more research on it.

Mike


[edit on 10/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by space cadet
Hi Space cadet,

that's not the first time I've heard of that strange behaviour this migratory season. It's as if the birds are not able to clearly detect the magnetic field that they are known to use for navigation, or the field is different from what it should be. There is some talk about this on ATS and some people have noted abnormal deviations on their compasses. (The people's I mean.)

Mike

reply to post by westcoast
Hello Westcoast and welcome!

Thanks for that text...

I've read other reports about these birds, and comments that the abnormalities of their beaks suggest they are infected by some kind of toxin, which could be either a viral/bacterial source or some other cause (eg toxic fish). In other words, their disorientation may be because they are sick, rather than that they are unable to properly detect the magnetic field they normally use to navigate -- unlike reports of geese flying the wrong way. (See my other post above this one.)

Seeing as pelicans live on fish I'd be looking at their primary food source as the root cause. Fish concentrate toxins that are in the water, and when the birds eat them they absorb this concentrated toxin. And as the adult birds hunt for and eat live fish, which they then regurgitate to feed their young, if there is a toxin in the water they will come into contact with it more so that the young. Even the process of "pre-digesting" the food would mean that the adults are more likely to take in higher doses of any toxin.

I'll guess we'll have to wait and see if any report is released that states a definitive answer to the mystery.

Mike

[edit on 10/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by kattraxx

posted on 1/9/09 @ 06:35 PM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:

Picking up SoCal. If it's not San Bernadino aftershocks, then it's Coalinga over to San Simeon on the coast...

Between Coalinga and San Simeon on the coast. Not huge, but this area was drawing my attention the last couple days. Just a feeling.

Magnitude 3.0 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2009 January 10 14:18:20 UTC

36.169°N, 120.734°W
Depth 9.7 km (6.0 miles)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances 23 km (14 miles) NE (43°) from San Ardo, CA
26 km (16 miles) E (80°) from San Lucas, CA
28 km (18 miles) S (191°) from New Idria, CA
34 km (21 miles) W (275°) from Coalinga, CA

Edit to add:

Magnitude 2.9 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2009 January 10 14:22:33 UTC

Location 36.169°N, 120.735°W
Depth 9.6 km (6.0 miles)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances 23 km (14 miles) NE (43°) from San Ardo, CA
26 km (16 miles) E (80°) from San Lucas, CA
28 km (17 miles) S (191°) from New Idria, CA
34 km (21 miles) W (275°) from Coalinga, CA

Magnitude 2.2 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2009 January 11 00:24:02 UTC

--------------------

Near The Geysers.

Magnitude 3.6 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2009 January 10 09:18:11 UTC

39.032°N, 123.343°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles)
Region NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 17 km (11 miles) SW (222°) from Ukiah, CA

[edit on 1/10/09 by kattraxx]

reply to post by westcoast


Thanks, westcoast... intriguing connection you've made here. And welcome.

I agree with Soma_Pills about Berkland. Nevertheless, this information about the pelicans is disturbing. Whales beaching around the Pacific would be something to keep an eye on right now.

Now, I know virtually nothing about pelicans. I've seen hundreds of them hanging out at Pyramid Lake just north of Reno in the early summer. Would you post the link? I'd like to read more about this.

Have you found any evidence of whales beaching this past week?

Gaging strange animal behavior can be tricky. It depends on the behavior. Something like birds not showing up at the bird feeder one morning probably only means the neighbors put out something better. However, earthworms and snakes coming out of the ground en masse in January is something altogether different and should be noted. I believe we have many links posted in the OP of this thread on the subject. If you find any convincing evidence of this, let us know, even if just for the sake of documenting it.

Edit to add: The geese we saw flying over Reno this season were flying in perfect V formations.

[edit on 1/10/09 by kattraxx]

reply to post by westcoast


Hi westcoast...welcome (I am fairly new here myself).

Personally I take Berkland with a grain of salt. He deserves full credit for his accomplishments (predicting Loma Prieta, advancing the theory of moon/tides and EQs, using animal behavior as an indicator, etc) and he sparked my interest in EQs for sure, but his predictions are typically so wide ranging and vague that they are not useful. For example, here is a current prediction from him:

Within 140 miles of Los Angeles a 3.5-6.5M quake in the Jan 8-15 window. I mean that is a HUGE area and includes parts of Mexico. In 8 days chance dictates you will likely have at least one 3.x in that region, and he grades himself on a sliding scale so that a 3.3. still counts as an 80% hit. Not very scientific or useful IMO.

Regarding the pelicans, there is a pile of evidence that the oceans are sick, and the west coast of the US is no exception and may in fact be one of the harder hit areas. I surfed for years off the coast on both Northern and Southern CA, and the changes were obvious over that time to anyone with a love of the water. More dead fish, birds and large mammals washing up over the years. Noticeable visual and 'smell' factor clues at spots that used to be considered among the cleaner areas. It has gotten to the point that I will rarely eat seafood anymore (and I love seafood!) as my experiences in the water and the data we have seen over the last few years on mercury, toxins and other indicators has piled up.

I think these poor birds are likely being affected by toxins and potentially the slow magnetic pole flip that is occurring more than anything. Decent article on the pole flip here...note the picture of the magnetic field during the slow 'flip' process...that's got to mess with any animal that relies on the magnetic field for guidance!

I'm not saying they might not be getting their internal compasses screwed up by EQ/volcanic activity as well, I just think, in this particular case, the primary cause is likely toxins or earth changes.

Just got a 10 second, fog horn (low pitch) left ear tone. Pretty faint but definitely caught my attention.

reply to post by JustMike


I hope that you are right (I guess...either way it is not good for the Pelicans or tone of the environment in general). I know that I read they had not found levels toxic enough in the birds to account for the behavior and that the fish they feed on are well stocked. I have not found anything though about the fish themselves being tested, which makes a lot of sense. I'm sure they must be doing it.

I read that there were about a dozen beached whales back in November in Australia, possilby in prelude to the indonesia quake. I have not found any info about beached whales recently in the West Coast.

Here is the link to the RSOE site: (for the reader who requested it)
RSOE

You can either click on the icon, or scroll down the page for the event listings.

I think it is hard to dispute that animals DO show signs prior to quakes...we just need to be looking. The pelicans may very well just be sick. Can you imagine having one of those hit your car??!!

JustMike....I have been reading the yellowstone threads from the start of the clusters and you have some of the most intelligent and informative posts. Thank you for all your insight.

I am closely watching the activity in Yellowstone and around the world...it's fascinating stuff! I have a strong sense that there is more to come, probably not catastrophic...but the land is definately talking to us and I think we need to listen.

Originally posted by mountaindog
Here we go again...

A week after the fact, a 3.3 off the coast of northern California has popped up on the USGS map:

3.3
Date-Time
* Thursday, January 01, 2009 at 20:22:21 UTC
* Thursday, January 01, 2009 at 12:22:21 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 40.423°N, 125.966°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

earthquake.usgs.gov...

And now it's gone again.

Magnitude 3.6 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2009 January 11 01:05:59 UTC

Location 34.309°N, 116.915°W
Depth 5.9 km (3.7 miles)
Region SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 7 km (4 miles) N (356°) from town of Big Bear Lake, CA
8 km (5 miles) NW (308°) from Big Bear City, CA

Originally posted by kattraxx
Magnitude 3.6 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2009 January 11 01:05:59 UTC

Location 34.309°N, 116.915°W
Depth 5.9 km (3.7 miles)
Region SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 7 km (4 miles) N (356°) from town of Big Bear Lake, CA
8 km (5 miles) NW (308°) from Big Bear City, CA

It feels wrong to want to see a bigger quake, but man, what do I have to do to get .4 more on the mag?

reply to post by soma_pills


Good call.

You might get your 4.0 prediction yet, I'm getting that area right now-- Big Bear, Yucca Valley, Mojave Desert...

[edit on 1/10/09 by kattraxx]

An "earthquake of unknown magnitude" came up offshore Northern California about 15 minutes ago, and I've been waiting for the magnitude to be assigned... but, guess what? Deleted.

external image

Looked to be off the coast near Bodega Bay, thereabouts, and probably a 3.8.

Edit to add: Maybe they'll put it on the maps on the 6th day, in yellow. I can see the EQ on the seismograms. I don't think it was a teleseism because I can't find a correlating distant EQ where the P wave arrival time would match up to this EQ's time.


[edit on 1/11/09 by kattraxx]