Bush: US is not headed into recession

Originally posted by Gools

Originally posted by aaaauroraaaaa
A "power dive into economic oblivion" (TheRedneck), more likely.

The you agree that Bush is LYING?

President Bush said Thursday that the country is not headed into a recession

.

Lol. MIssed that part.

So he might be telling a little white lie... yeah However, he said recession, not "depression" or "complete collapse"... so no... it's not really lying...

I care not what the University Academics consider a recession - what with their silly tenure and federal subsidies! Out here, in the real world, the middle class is completely evaporating like a mirage in the desert and the rest of us are being squeezed by increasing costs and decreasing capital.

Further, GDP is a measure of what an economy produces annually in both products and services. Consider that our actual hard-goods production has been decreasing for nearly a decade and that "service" products have replaced that and it's not too hard to see the truth here. Secondly "Gross" means that depreciated capital stock is not counted. Add that back into the equation (hence net domestic product) and you will get a VERY clear picture of the depth of the doo-doo in which we now lie!

For a better understanding visit Wiki

reply to post by kozmo



Fine. So the middle class is beginning their collapse into tents. (I want mine to be the one with 4 rooms and the mosquito nets!). This does not mean economic collapse in a worldview economy. (Yet).

Read the WHOLE THREAD and you will read what I think about economists...





[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


Wow.

Just...

Wow... :shk:



BTW you do understand that the only way to know you are in a textbook recession (even if you were to believe the government numbers) is to look back at the last quarter, right? The last two in fact.

That by your textbook definition it is impossible to know whether or not you are in fact in a quarter that fits your textbook definition? That you will know more than six months after the fact right? Because if you were in extreme negative 3000% growth for five months and 0.000001% growth in the sixth, then everything is fine because we were never in a "recession" according to the textbooks and government statistics right?

I don't mean to harp on you, it's just that you seem to have a penchant for splitting hairs so I thought I'd play along.
.

Originally posted by Gools
reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa

 

Wow.

Just...

Wow... :shk:

 

BTW you do understand that the only way to know you are in a textbook recession (even if you were to believe the government numbers) is to look back at the last quarter, right? The last two in fact.

That by your textbook definition it is impossible to know whether or not you are in fact in a quarter that fits your textbook definition? That you will know more than six months after the fact right? Because if you were in extreme negative 3000% growth for five months and 0.000001% growth in the sixth,
.

Kind of, however, the "textbook definition" isn't really set in stone. For example, for the 2000/2001 recession, we had:

slowing growth, followed by 1 quarter of negative growth, followed by a quarter of growth, followed by 1 quarter of negative growth, followed by an economic expansion (or housing bubble).

However, the Bureau of Economic Analysis called it a recession.

And a person really doesn't have to wait 6 months to get the numbers... unofficial ones anyway. Like for Q4 2007, which was just released today as revised (the preliminary already came out in January), says we had growth the 4th Quarter (argh i forgot the exact number already). However, growth is growth as far as GDP is concerned, even the middle class is living in tents.

What we would have with GDP growth, and a middle class collapse & lower class famine/genocide is called a "redistribution of income".












[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

Originally posted by Gools

The you agree that Bush is LYING?

Absolutely not! That is, if you believe...

Richard Nixon was "not a crook"...

Jimmy Carter solved the energy crisis of the 70s...

George H. W. Bush allowed "no new taxes"...

Bill Clinton "did not have sex with that woman"...

How do you know a politician is lying? His mouth is moving. And to think I actually voted for Bush in 2000... someone kick me, please.

TheRedneck

Originally posted by aaaauroraaaaa
The more that happens, the less people take out loans... take out cash... etc... the banking system will fail.

One can only hope.

Recession - when the other guy loses his job.

Depression - when you lose yours.

Judging by how many calls I've received over the past couple months from people looking for a job, I'd say we're in a recession.

*kicks redneck*

screw the words of deffinition ok.. lets looks around us and really see whats going on...

Families are losing their Homes.
Jobs are harder an harder to find ( that will actually pay for the thing u need )
We all know Burger king and Mcdonalds is hiring but have any of you tried to raise a family off mcdonalds, yeah your not gonna get very far.

We still have this retarded dependence on Oil... When we have Electrical car, Old fryer grease cars, air powered cars, an so forth its not like alternate car fuel is 20 years away, its staring us in the face.

And to top it off, we pay jobs that HAVE TO GET DONE less then we pay JOBS that NO BODY WILL MISS if they got minimum wage.

We are Spending Billions of dollars in Iraq and for the War Or Terror.

The Government just keeps lowering intrest rates and printing more money.

if these things do not spell near future economic collaspe then I want the Drugs your on cuz my Digestion problems are acting up an i dont wanna think they are real.

Oh an last but not least... When you have person(s) in a nice fluffy college or well paid office an you drive a SUV or Pimped out Toyota, its gonna be pretty hard to see down past your nose at the people with no SUVs fluffy college nice offce they just have a car, just have a home, just have a student loan to goto college.

Even stanford thinks something is up cuz they have granted all their low income student NO PAYMENT this school year. Sounds to be they are trying to be nice to their people who are living thru this recession/Everythingisfineness as the Experts say.

So inflation mixed with Low wages and dept out the waaaaaazzzooooo
arent meaning Recession? nothing is wrong all is fine an dandy?
Its so easy to say theres no recession when your able to buy all the materials needs u HAVE to get if you have a bank account full of trustfunds, or benjis. But if you have to live from paycheck to paycheck an still having hardships buying diapers and food I would say we have a pretty big problem on our hands....

Go ask your neighbors if they feel this is a recession I bet your answer wont be a No.

Originally posted by apc

Originally posted by aaaauroraaaaa
The more that happens, the less people take out loans... take out cash... etc... the banking system will fail.

Judging by how many calls I've received over the past couple months from people looking for a job, I'd say we're in a recession.

Is this based on previous experience from the '90-'92 recession or the 2000/2001 recession?
If so:

Is the economic slowdown(I didn't say recession or depression or collapse) not more concentrated to your geographic area?

Is the economic slowdown not more concentrated to your industry?

If no:
If you aren't over age 36... You most likely were not affected by the last recession, or even know it happened in '91/'92. The 2000/2001 recession, most people equate with "9/11" which was only part of it, but was just jabbed the stick deeper from the lingering dot-com bust.

Check that, get back to us.

As far as the whole "when ur neighbor loses ur job... when u lose ur job" bit... that's such an overused cliche I just want to scream!!! Stop it lol.








[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

Originally posted by Trance Optic
*kicks redneck*

screw the words of deffinition ok.. lets looks around us and really see whats going on...

Families are losing their Homes.
Jobs are harder an harder to find ( that will actually pay for the thing u need )
We all know Burger king and Mcdonalds is hiring but have any of you tried to raise a family off mcdonalds, yeah your not gonna get very far.

We still have this retarded dependence on Oil... When we have Electrical car, Old fryer grease cars, air powered cars, an so forth its not like alternate car fuel is 20 years away, its staring us in the face.

And to top it off, we pay jobs that HAVE TO GET DONE less then we pay JOBS that NO BODY WILL MISS if they got minimum wage.

We are Spending Billions of dollars in Iraq and for the War Or Terror.

The Government just keeps lowering intrest rates and printing more money.

if these things do not spell near future economic collaspe then I want the Drugs your on cuz my Digestion problems are acting up an i dont wanna think they are real.

Oh an last but not least... When you have person(s) in a nice fluffy college or well paid office an you drive a SUV or Pimped out Toyota, its gonna be pretty hard to see down past your nose at the people with no SUVs fluffy college nice offce they just have a car, just have a home, just have a student loan to goto college.

Even stanford thinks something is up cuz they have granted all their low income student NO PAYMENT this school year. Sounds to be they are trying to be nice to their people who are living thru this recession/Everythingisfineness as the Experts say.

So inflation mixed with Low wages and dept out the waaaaaazzzooooo
arent meaning Recession? nothing is wrong all is fine an dandy?
Its so easy to say theres no recession when your able to buy all the materials needs u HAVE to get if you have a bank account full of trustfunds, or benjis. But if you have to live from paycheck to paycheck an still having hardships buying diapers and food I would say we have a pretty big problem on our hands....

Go ask your neighbors if they feel this is a recession I bet your answer wont be a No.

That is not a recession of a nations GDP if people are just losing their homes or can't feed their families:
That is a redistribution of income.


Go buy a tent and a water purifiuer before they are all gone if you actually planning on an economic collapse.

That or take your money and go short the S&P 500... then you will actually MAKE money during a recession.

As far as the college/free tuition at standford/yale etc for low income students, how many people that come from

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


I lived through stagflation in the 70s, although I was young at the time.

In comparison, I don't think people were as scared then as they are now. People could still afford to live in a house - even when interest rates were near 20%. I know, because I was young and bought a small mobile home at the time. I learned the importance back then of fixed interest rate mortgages, since the only mortgages they handed out back then were variable rate. People didn't object because no one wanted to be locked in for 30 years at 20% interest.

FYI, the first apartment I rented in the 70s was $125 a month.

At the time, gas was affordable, but there was none because of the oil embargo. Gas stations were rationing, or were just out altogether.

This time around, there's plenty of gas, but no one can afford it.

The business slowdown back then was brutal. That hasn't happened this time - yet. I think it's coming, as well as greater unemployment numbers.

The housing problem scares me because the last time that happened was in the Great Depression. In the 70s, people were buying property as an investment hedge against inflation.

Frankly, having lived through the 70s, this recent downturn scares the freak outta me. We're not in the middle of it yet, and the portents are as bad or worse than the 70s.

There, I said it.

reply to post by AWingAndASigh


The depression wasn't inflation... it was deflation. Most of the time when people are worried about hyperinflation... they should be worried about the hyper-deflation that usually follows.

You say "no one can afford gas" Hey man... You have a number of the amount of people that actually don't drive cars because they can't afford gas, in % of the American population?... Last time I checked everyone was still going 70-80mph on the freeway too... looks to me they can afford to get 5-10 less MPG by going that fast over 50-60mph. They may buy less of it, but they aren't broke because of it. Just like $1/gallon, there are going to be some that can't afford it, like the homeless slums on the streets (but they can't even afford a car... so....)

What else did we bring up... Oh yeah.... 30 year fixed rate @20%? Ever hear of re-financing?
I will never do a variable rate... there is nothing saying that the 20% couldn't have gone to 40%

Just like the people who bought variable rates @3-5% (when the Fed funds rate was at 1-2%) and caused "subprime" (But they were forced by the predatory lenders!!! )



There. I said it.







[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

you have alot to say about this aaaauroraaaaa, Can you tell us why you think you are so sure this isnt a recession? I mean explain it to me an the others who are scraping money just to get gas, Hell I know 3 different folks who had to get gas cards today from what my social worker said, they are also running out of funds fast to help people with theyre shut off notices an such,

Im very well involved with Social services they are helpin us thru a tough time ( from personal matters ) an well I feel every inflated penny all the time. Im barely able to afford the gas to watch the others go 70 -80 mph down the highway, right now our car takes us to an from work, an to an from food store or social services. thats it,

An on top of it, I used to be able to find jobs easy being that I was ex air force an worked on 20 million dollar air craft I was considered a valuable employee, Now I send in my resume, fill out apps, clean cut, nice clothes great additude, I have heard back from 1 out of 17 places I have contacted in the past 2 weeks, an that was to tell me they filled the position.

Now theres either more people looking for work now, or not enuff work for all who are appling, or just that they honestly felt I wasnt meant for the position even thoe I have worked from one end of the spectrum to the other since I was 13.

Things are not looking good, an many dont understand that the Low income americans that make up a huge part of the USA, were barely making it by before, Now im watching families move back in with their parents, grandparents or goto shelters. If you know anyone who is like this there is some help in PA but MD is running dry... HUD vouchers are on hold again.

Im going from Government services an such to measure what you say an well If things were all fine an dandy our government would be able to help out more with its lower incomed people right? Well they are actually gettin less an less to help these people. Churches and Other Organizations are helping the most now. Its truely sad to watch all these wonderful people live such hard lives. If i had the money myself I would help them all out but Im stuck in the same rut.

Im Living the Recession.............

I am a IT/TELECOM trained professional. I saw on Foxnews a few days ago that the government is wanting to give more and more of our technical jobs to foreigners with a third the experience just so they can save some money on paychecks.

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


Do you have stats that show people are buying gas at the same rate as before? I have one for you - gas inventories are through the roof.

biz.yahoo.com...


Interest rates in the 70s couldn't go to 40% because we had usary laws. Those have since been abolished.

en.wikipedia.org...

Usury rates in the United States
Each U.S. state has its own statute which dictates how much interest can be charged before it is considered usurious or unlawful.

If a lender charges above the lawful interest rate, a court will not allow the lender to sue to recover the debt because the interest rate was illegal anyway. In some states (such as New York) such loans are voided, meaning made void from the beginning or ab initio. Ref NY Gen Oblig 5-501 et seq. and NY 1503.

However, there are separate rules applied to most banks. In 1980, due to inflation, national banks (banks that generally include N.A. in their name), federally chartered savings banks, installment plan sellers and chartered loan companies were exempted from state usury limits by the federal government through a special law. This effectively overrode all state and local usury laws.

Reference: Interest rate usury limits for U.S. states: Usury rate limits.

www.fdic.gov...

Another significant change to the marketplace rules occurred in the late 1970s with deregulation of consumer interest rates. Both Ausubel (1997) and Rougeau (1996) focus on interest rate deregulation as the event that set the United States on a course of rising credit card volumes. Chart 1 illustrates that the dramatic rise in personal bankruptcies did indeed begin shortly after the Supreme Court's Marquette decision, which initiated interest rate deregulation. This chart suggests a relationship between interest rate deregulation and the increase in personal bankruptcies. The evidence alone is not sufficient to establish a causal relationship; this paper argues that such a relationship exists.

Subprime is generally the vehicle the low income people use to buy a home. Low income people are those first impacted by economic issues - such as rising gas prices and interest rates. This is true in ANY economic downturn, not just this one.

en.wikipedia.org...

Understanding the causes and risks of the subprime crisis
The reasons for this crisis are varied and complex. [19] Understanding and managing the ripple effect through the world-wide economy poses a critical challenge for governments, businesses, and investors. Due to innovations in securitization, the risks related to the inability of homeowners to meet mortgage payments have been distributed broadly, with a series of consequential impacts. The crisis can be attributed to a number of factors, such as the inability of homeowners to make their mortgage payments; poor judgment by either the borrower or the lender; inappropriate mortgage incentives, and rising adjustable mortgage rates. Further, declining home prices have made re-financing more difficult. There are three primary risk categories involved:

Credit risk: Traditionally, the risk of default (called credit risk) would be assumed by the bank originating the loan. However, due to innovations in securitization, credit risk is now shared more broadly with investors, because the rights to these mortgage payments have been repackaged into a variety of complex investment vehicles, generally categorized as mortgage-backed securities (MBS) or collateralized debt obligations (CDO). A CDO, essentially, is a repacking of existing debt, and in recent years MBS collateral has made up a large proportion of issuance. In exchange for purchasing the MBS, third-party investors receive a claim on the mortgage assets, which become collateral in the event of default. Further, the MBS investor has the right to cash flows related to the mortgage payments. To manage their risk, mortgage originators (e.g., banks or mortgage lenders) may also create separate legal entities, called special-purpose entities (SPE), to both assume the risk of default and issue the MBS. The banks effectively sell the mortgage assets (i.e., banking accounts receivable, which are the rights to receive the mortgage payments) to these SPE. In turn, the SPE then sells the MBS to the investors. The mortgage assets in the SPE become the collateral.
Asset price risk: CDO valuation is complex and related "fair value" accounting for such "Level 3" assets is subject to wide interpretation. This valuation fundamentally derives from the collectibility of subprime mortgage payments, which is difficult to predict due to lack of precedent and rising delinquency rates. Banks and institutional investors have recognized substantial losses as they revalue their CDO assets downward. Most CDOs require that a number of tests be satisfied on a periodic basis, such as tests of interest cash flows, collateral ratings, or market values. For deals with market value tests, if the valuation falls below certain levels, the CDO may be required by its terms to sell collateral in a short period of time, often at a steep loss, much like a stock brokerage account margin call. If the risk is not legally contained within an SPE or otherwise, the entity owning the mortgage collateral may be forced to sell other types of assets, as well, to satisfy the terms of the deal. In addition, credit rating agencies have downgraded over U.S. $50 billion in highly-rated CDO and more such downgrades are possible. Since certain types of institutional investors are allowed to only carry higher-quality (e.g., "AAA") assets, there is an increased risk of forced asset sales, which could cause further devaluation. [20]
Liquidity risk: A related risk involves the commercial paper market, a key source of funds (i.e., liquidity) for many companies. Companies and SPE called structured investment vehicles (SIV) often obtain short-term loans by issuing commercial paper, pledging mortgage assets or CDO as collateral. Investors provide cash in exchange for the commercial paper, receiving money-market interest rates. However, because of concerns regarding the value of the mortgage asset collateral linked to subprime and Alt-A loans, the ability of many companies to issue such paper has been significantly affected. [21] The amount of commercial paper issued as of October 18, 2007 dropped by 25%, to $888 billion, from the August 8 level. In addition, the interest rate charged by investors to provide loans for commercial paper has increased substantially above historical levels. [22]

Part of the problem was the failure to properly value sub-prime mortgages that were resold. In general, asset pricing prices in risk. When valuations didn't properly assess risk, and this became apparent as the sub-prime borrows began to fail to make their payments (as occurs in every downturn), investors realized they'd been had.

Originally posted by Trance Optic
you have alot to say about this aaaauroraaaaa, Can you tell us why you think you are so sure this isnt a recession?

Im Living the Recession.............

The nation. As in the USA... Is not in a recession. We are experiencing wealth re-distribution.

There is wealth distribution, the rich are getting richer, and poor are getting poorer.(unless a person knows how to manage their money and doesn't just give it to the next goon to handle (i.e. your 401k is scam of managers.... learn to do it yourself). The money is still flowing, it's just going to different places. Instead of the new lamp for your bedroom, it's going into Exxon-Mobil's pocket (etc). But there is still the same amount spent. This is wealth re-distribution, not a recession. There is NOT a contraction of the GDP quarter to quarter, we have been GROWING our GDP since 2002, even after adjusting for inflation!!!! Not to say that it couldn't have a cataclysmic crash the 2nd quarter of 2008 though.

un-employment is still at 4.9%... (source: BLS) in the early '90s it was at 7.5%.
(for those that say "but you can't trust numbers!" We may as well not even be having this conversation if we aren't agreeing on a set parameter of trusted numbers, whether they are off by .01-.02% or not)

A great attitude isn't going to get you a job. I hate the gen-xer's and gen y I am growing up with (I am 19), they think they will get paid just for being cute and dressing up everyday and coming to work. NO! You have work 7 days a week, 60 hours a week, and actually do something while you are "at work" in order to get noticed at first... put that on your resume. Oh wait, you were in the military... you must be the smartest person alive dag-nabit, you must have discipline!! Ha... okay.









[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa


I used to work in IT. I know plenty of guys who worked 60+ hours per week, as well as being on call 24/7 for network outtages, who are nevertheless now unemployed.

Have you heard about H1B visas?

It's all about money, and right now Corporate America would rather bring in cheap labor from some 3rd world country that they can exploit, rather than hire an American who is protected by labor law and gets a competitive salary.

Working long hours and being good at your job isn't good enough when your job gets shipped overseas because it's cheaper.

Originally posted by AWingAndASigh
reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa

 

Do you have stats that show people are buying gas at the same rate as before? I have one for you - gas inventories are through the roof.

biz.yahoo.com...

The [crude] stockpiles were 3.4 percent below year-ago levels

2.3 million barrels, or 1 percent, to 232.6 million barrels. That is 6.6 percent above year-ago levels.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

I read:

A) There is less crude, and they are adjusting to refine less for gasoline in the future
B) Gasoline inventories rose by 1% over LAST YEAR... What about 2005,2004,....1995? Those years don't count?
C) Did you see the natural gas data come out today???? That inventory level was -151Billion Cubic Feet!!!! Maybe they are budgeting to spend the money on natural gas?... hmm...

Originally posted by AWingAndASigh
Interest rates in the 70s couldn't go to 40% because we had usary laws. Those have since been abolished.

What was the EXACT rate for each state where it became unlawful??? Was 20% the upper limit? or 25...%? So I am asking... was it at the upper limit for every or ANY state, or did it have have room to run?

Furthermore... Posting wikipedia stories doesn't mean anything to me. I am talking to YOU, not wikipedia. Go the wikipedia discussion boards for each topic if you want to see the actual bloodbaths that go on over what should actually be in each article.

Lol... overestimating the value of the homes... Part of the story. This whole thing is NOT caused by people simply taking out subprime mortgages:

We have many going on with subprime, here are two:

1) Bank crisis... This is what happens when a bank overvalues a home and the bank loses money with the CDO/VIE debacle.(just wait for the VIE's to start... that hasn't even hit the fan yet, along with a collapse of the bond market that is working it's way thru)

2) Subprime Lendee... A person that borrows the money that has to put a dent in their credit rating and walk away from the home, or goes bankrupt trying to pay the increasing monthly payments.






[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

reply to post by kozmo


Mr. Bush, is working for the GOP to make sure that they will get a chance to the white house after his failure as a president and the disastrous conditions he is leaving this nation.

He will lie until he turn blue and gray for the GOP benefit.

But we all know as regular hard working Americans and tax payers how far our dollar goes this days.

Mr. Bush and his corporate friend have not worry about that because none of them do groceries, or drive a car to work.

They have others to do the job for them.

Originally posted by AWingAndASigh
reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa

 

I used to work in IT. I know plenty of guys who worked 60+ hours per week,

RE-READ my post. I did not say 60+ hours a week.

Here it is paraphrased... and maybe a bit better written:

I said 60+ hours a week, 7 days a week (did they all work 7days a week?), AND actually contribute to the lifeblood of the business and manage the slaves that work for it, not just be one of the slaves within the corporation, or be one of the best slaves in the biz. Not just "another" guy in IT.

As far as the HB1 Visa thing... yes of course it's about the money!!!!!
Of course they are exporting all of our manufacturing to other countries!!! it's alot easier to collapse our service sector economy then. Like I said, we are not in a recession, we are experiencing a re-redistribution of wealth, and eventually maybe an economic collapse. But right now, it's just the poor getting poorer, not a recession or collapse.... Yet.






[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]