Bush: US is not headed into recession

news.yahoo.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I think that someone needs to show Mr. Bush the definition of a recession. We are already in one. I almost spit out my coffee upon reading this

news.yahoo.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

You mean the definition of 2 consecutive quarters with zero or negative GDP growth?

The latest GDP numbers show slowing growth, yes, however, we have not had any negative or zero growth quarters since 2000/2001. And that is even real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation. In non-inflation adjusted GDP, even for 4Q2007 we are no where near a recession.



We are not in a recession. Yet.









[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

Pardon me for pointing out an obvious fact... President Bush has his head so far up his own arse that he must fart to breath!

It is painfully obvious that a recession is NOT coming... it is ALREADY HERE! In fact, by my estimates we are about 3 months into it! How the supposed "Commander-in-Chief" doesn't see that is beyond alarming. Everything is contracting violently from capital to the employment market. Our dollar is plummeting against international currencies. Inflation is on it's fastest growth pace since the 1970's. Commodities are scarce and their prices are soaring well beyond inflationary norms. Debt is swollowing entire segments of the population. Savings rates are the lowest in history. GDP is growing so slowly that it isn't even actually growing. Housing prices are plummeting while foreclosures are soaring.

Again, pardon me for stating the obvious... The economy is in the crapper and the worst part is yet to come... the flush! And when it does, get ready for a whole new world and new financial system; the likes of which have never been witnessed on this planet before.

But Bush... I mean, the sky really does look blue. Maybe I'm just colorblind or reading the clouds wrong... but it looks blue.



Oh... thanks... guess I can afford food and gas for another week. I hope the prices magically fix themself before this relief money gets all spent-up.



Not feeling any better, Bush....

A recession defined as 2 consecutive quarters of zero or negative GDP growth? No, even when adjusted for inflation, we are NOT in a recession.

It's funny how Bush stopped his speech when a reporter asked what he thought about gasoline hitting $4.00 a gallon. Bush said that he had not been aware of any such claim. Was looking for the video footage but it has disappeared from the LA Times.

[edit on 28-2-2008 by JupiterJustice]

Yep!

There's no recession by some arbitrary textbook definition... nothing but blue skies ahead folks!!


FDIC to Add Staff as Bank Failures Loom

YouTube Link

.

edit: video fixed

[edit on 2/28/2008 by Gools]

$4/gallon is not synonymous with recession. Europe handled $5-7 a gallon just fine. We are humans, we are able to adjust to change. Even $5/gallon will not automatically mean gloom and doom. We will buy smaller cars, bicycles, and use more public transportation, maybe even go 55mph instead of 70-80mph. We may have slower growth, but it does not automatically mean a recession.

We are not in a recession as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of zero or negative GDP growth, which is the definition almost all university educated economists use. Even when adjusted for inflation, we have not had a quarter of negative GDP growth since 2001.

Will we go into a recession? Maybe, but I'm not saying we are in a recession when we haven't even had ONE quarter of zero or negative GDP growth yet. And even if we just have one quarter or zero/negative, I'm not going to bite my nails on the 2nd quarter being negative as well. It'd be the 3rd quarter of zero or negative growth that i'd be concerned about (well I'm concerned it may happen... but I won't be too worried until I see even the first quarter of zero/negative... until then we are just a bit of a slowdown.)

The media, however, is very powerful. The more people start thinking we are going into a recession, the more likely it becomes that we go into a recession. Those of you that understand that we need credit creation for our money system to work will understand that.







[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

Heheh...too funny! I think the term Bush ought to be looking up now is - 'Depression'. That's the serious concern of many respected economic experts at the present. Depression makes recession look like a stroll in the park.

J.

reply to post by jimbo999

---

We are not in a recession, as defined by 2 consecutive quarters of zero or negative GDP growth, which is the definition that most university educated economists use.

If you think this is bad, just wait until we are actually in a recession.

Most people didn't really notice the recession of 2000/2001... we blamed it on 9/11 and "dot-com"... It was all fanfare and gloom and glamorized.

Before that, we haven't had a recession since 1990-1992... or over 16 years ago. For those of you that are 36 years old... most 20 year olds would not have noticed a recession... like most 20 year olds aren't noticing that we are not in a recession right now... the media, however, says times are bad... so they believe times are bad. The more that happens, the less people take out loans... take out cash... etc... the banking system will fail.

Recessions... I believe can be controlled by the media? And who owns those news stations telling us we are going into a recession? Why did warren buffet buy a huge chunk of autonation... and why are people interested in autozone stock... do they know already that people are going to need to buy a ton of parts for their old cars... since they won't be able to afford new ones?












[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

Short answer: Bush is right. No GDP losses.

Real answer: Bush is pulling the bush over your eyes (along with everyone else's)

Business is slowing, but still growing. The problem is that US business is almost fully service-oriented. there is precious little manufacturing of real goods happening in the US now, and the vast majority that is going on, is not owned by US citizens or companies. So a slowing in the economy of the US will hit harder and faster than at any point in our history.

Energy prices are increasing by leaps and bounds. Diesel fuel in the last two weeks has risen by almost 20 cents a gallon. Coupled with sluggish (translation: non-existent) wage increases, this means that Americans are paying more of their income for energy than at any time in our history. That leaves less income for goods and services to keep the economy growing.

The increase in energy costs leads to an increase in inflation across the board. There is no product or service that does not depend on energy for it's existence. So as the cost of energy increases, so must the cost for the good or service.

Taxes are now well over 50% for most Americans. That's a combination of federal income tax, state income tax, local income tax, sales tax, property tax, estate tax, capital gains tax, sin tax, use tax, tolls, FICA tax, Medicare tax... and if you want to call it what it is, you must include mandatory insurance and mandatory services as well. That's over half of our income that cannot go to the economy.

So, if we are giving over half of our money to the various arms of government, then sending an ever-increasing chunk of the remainder to energy companies alone, then what's left is siphoned off through foreign production/investment to other countries, there's precious little remaining to come back to us. And when you boil it all down, the economy is not about the amount of money available, it's about the speed of that money as it makes a circuit through the myriad of businesses and homes that make up the economy.

That speed is multiplied in large part by the banking industry, which uses loans to produce more wealth. Did I mention it is itself in serious trouble from a major rash of foreclosures?

Now let's look into the crystal ball: The next President will no doubt be a Democrat (my opinion, I admit, but time I believe will bear me out on this). How will Hillary fix the credit crunch? By taking on all the bad loans by the government. That means higher taxes. So even less money is available for the economy and it grinds to a standstill. No recession, but a depression. And since more people owe more debt now than they did in 1929, a seriously painful, debilitating depression that will spread worldwide (we are the largest consumer nation), and destroy economic civilization as we know it.

Obama has the bright idea to make it illegal to 'fraudulently' loan money or even be involved in the process. he also wants bankruptcy judges to be able to rewrite the terms of high-risk mortgages. So the credit availability will plummet (I wouldn't talk to someone about a loan if I could have my interest rate slashed on a whim, or if I faced the possibility of 35 years in prison and up to $5M in fines), and the housing market will slowly collapse from within. The economy will stagger and fall, and the correction will, again, be worse than the 1929 collapse. But there will hopefully be a bit more of the economy left to recover after a couple of decades of abject poverty for most of the world's population.

See? We're not in a recession. It's more like a power-dive into economic oblivion. "All passengers please fasten your seat-belts."

I love carnival rides.

TheRedneck

Does the definition used by university educated economists actually matter?

Remember, a Bumblebee, according to the laws of aerodynamics, should not be able to fly, yet it does

You have to look at whats happening around you to see that a recession is underway. You can't just brush it off because it doesn't fit with a set of parameters used by academics.

reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa

---

Wholly broken record batman!!!!

Enough already.

We know the textbook definition of a recession! K?

The astute among us know what any "educated" economist thinks about things. Of course my definition of "educated" probably differs from yours, but then that just me and my crazy conspiracy theories.

By the way, for anybody who believes any of the Government statistics I have this bridge in Brooklyn I'm trying to get off my hands...
.

For those of you that have read my repeated attempts in this thread to to tell you that Bush is not lying (for once...)... Thank you for agreeing with me TheRedneck.

However, the second part of the quote, the "power dive"... yes I can see THAT happening before a little "recession" happened.

[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

Yeah, once again, we are fed the line that the 'media' controls the way we think. It doesn't. It attempts to control the way we think, all the time. Hence, giving us reports like "Bush says everything A.O.K" and expecting us to gobble it up.

The media is not 'tricking' us by acknowledging economic problems. They know if they didnt' at least acknowledge them their credibility would be completely shot in the publics eye.

Is it the MEDIA that is convincing us of economic troubles? Or is it the people losing their homes, judging by their own life experience in comparison to society and the economy?

I think it's the latter. If you're going to blame the media for dis-information, start with the war. But whenever the media tells us what we already know, we are told that the media is somehow fooling us....

chicken and the egg. We knew the news before we heard it on tv.

Well I lost my job the week before Christmas and can't find work anywhere. The newspaper here that used to have 7 or 8 pages of jobs had 1/2 of a page listed this past Sunday. Unemployment compensation has not gone up in years but the cost of food, gas and healthcare still continue to rise. I bought a gallon of milk the other day and it was 4.78 for a gallon of off brand 2 percent. You cannot convince me that we are not in recession.

I'll remember that next time we debate whether smoking, suicide, or drunk driving kills the most people.

Or if sunscreen actually causes increased cancer rates...
Or if flouride actually reduces tooth decay...
Etc....

Yes I know a lot of government numbers are fake and have a bit of conspiracy flair, however, a lot of economists are just as sleazy as the drunkard that lives down the street that watches the kids at the bus stop, they just make more money. We are not in a recession. A "power dive into economic oblivion" (TheRedneck), more likely.







[edit on 28-2-2008 by aaaauroraaaaa]

The you agree that Bush is LYING?


.

No... If the media said "times are great times are great"... People would be taking out loans... our system of credit that we feed off would in fact work. However, if the media comes out and says "banks are failing get your money our" or "no one is buying houses the housing market is crashing"... people will run the bank and not take out loans... that is what causes bank failures.

I'm not saying they outright control recessions/depressions, but they do have an impact. Also, reading other posts that I have read written by you in other threads... I am not fully convinced you are not a disinfo agent.