Bush: US is not headed into recession , page 4

Originally posted by Gools
reply to post by aaaauroraaaaa

Wholly broken record batman!!!!

Enough already.

We know the textbook definition of a recession! K?

The astute among us know what any "educated" economist thinks about things. Of course my definition of "educated" probably differs from yours, but then that just me and my crazy conspiracy theories.

By the way, for anybody who believes any of the Government statistics I have this bridge in Brooklyn I'm trying to get off my hands...
.

Gov't reported numbers such as GDP are "POLITICIZED".

It is all about perception management.

ALSO the FIRE economy Finance, Real Estate, and INSurance make up the majority of our economic earnings, not the industrial sector.

The financial sector and Real Estate had grown to such a gargantuan size that the growth of the "economy" depended on ways for these sectors to "deregulate" and get creative with lending to increase "debt" . Much of the growth of last few years was ficticious growth , not tangible capital, just numbers on a screen or money created by a few punches on a screen, then inflated away in a frenzy of greed, financial "model assumption's" and carelessness.

The real economy isn't doing so hot, i would argue their is a complete disconnect from wall street to the "real economy". People think stock are a "good value" because they are comparing price to earnings ratio's against company's who's growth was due to inflacted debt driven "paper".

Keep in mind , if you choose to measure by unemployment numbers we could have recession while GDP numbers which may not go under according to "official calculation" driven by fraud as well as inflation (gov't monetizing debt)

If they don't find a way to bailout the housing market and put a floor under home prices then we will have a very bad recession by anyone's definition. If they do throw enough money at the housing market thru gov't agency led "silent" bailout then we may not have much of a dollar left (dollar heavily dependent on wether the european central bank cut's intrest rates also and OPEC)

here is a chart of the dollar

quotes.ino.com...

it is weighted against a basket of currency's with the Euro be weighted about 4 x more than the yen, yuan , Great britan pound, etc .

And most major banks are in no position to lend out the money that has driven growth, they are trying to stay above water, not knowing when major writeoff (will take away more of their capital/lending base) Watch the 10 and 30 year intrest rates on gov't bond's also. If they rise to high the "FED" may have to choose wether they let the gov't bond market and it's financial weapons of mass destruction (derivatives) explode, or the stock maket and it's credit derivatives explode.

also aaaaauroraaaa is right about the wealth redistribution the only thing is the poor are losing the rich american's are tying to keep pace with inflation and when you look at the global picture , anyone only invested in american denominated currency is watching their wealth get re-distributed to Asia and Europe as american assets purchasing power is taken by the YUAN and the EURO which have/are appreciated.

[edit on 28-2-2008 by cpdaman]