Iran to buy SU-30MK

Maybe that's the grand strategy here - Russia sells Su-30's to Iran, forcing the US to sell F-22's to Israel, which means Israel sells F-22 technology under the table to China, who in turn sell it to the Russians

You do know that the Su-30MK will be sold for no less than $30 Million U.S. not "Rubles"

[edit on 27-7-2007 by YASKY]

It would be extremely stupid for the U.S. to sell the F-22 and it won't happen. We know that they gave up tech to China. I don't care if it's a watered down version. That would cost too much to make and it's still a Raptor, so it won't happen. It has been stated numerous times. I love these people who keep saying it will be sold. They've been saying that for years now and it still hasn't happened and most likely won't. The U.S. wouldn't want an arms race between Israel and Iran and wouldn't sell Raptors because of this. If F-22's were really needed, we could just deploy some in Kuwait or the U.A.E. and take the Flankers out. No need to sell them to Israel.

You do know that the Su-30MK will be sold for no less than $30 Million U.S. not "Rubles"

I kind of assumed he meant "billion" not "million".

250 Su-30's @ ~$30m each = $7.5 billion.



[edit on 7/27/07 by xmotex]

Originally posted by kilcoo316

Originally posted by Daedalus3
The Iranianson the other hand, would not be getting any 3rd party systems(built by companies in Israel,France,India) making their MKs wholely Russian(a def disadvantage).

Well, that could be seen as gaining leverage with the Iranian government.

So, some French, Indian etc stuff might go on it.

Well since Sarkozy is extremely American-friendly and since the US can always arm-twist India for the Nuclear deal, I see very little chance of Indian or French equipment going in there.
Esp since France is actively involved in the international 'movement' against he Iranian nuclear program.

I can see a possibility Chinese assistance there though.

I guess the purchase the op mentioned is in at least partly responsible for this deal mentioned on the bbc website? saudi arms deal

The US will not export the F-22, FMS are banned and not looked upon favorably by the Pentagon. But all that aside why would the US need to sell the Raptor to anyone in the region? The IAF is more than capable of holding it's own with one hundred F-35 or so plus its F-16 and F-15 force, if anything they might increase the F-35 buy. And other friendly nations in the region such as Saudi Arabia have signed a deal for seventy two Typhoons and the Turks will also buy one hundred or so F-35's. Given that US air bases in the region are plentiful and that Raptors can be deployed in theater in 48-72 hours there is no need to sell them. And US CBG's will also be present, and no their operations will not be adversely affected. This does not make Iran the most powerful air force in the Region, not even close. However it does increase their offensive and defensive capability by a considerable amount.

Originally posted by bdn12
It would be extremely stupid for the U.S. to sell the F-22 and it won't happen. We know that they gave up tech to China. I don't care if it's a watered down version. That would cost too much to make and it's still a Raptor, so it won't happen. It has been stated numerous times. I love these people who keep saying it will be sold. They've been saying that for years now and it still hasn't happened and most likely won't. The U.S. wouldn't want an arms race between Israel and Iran and wouldn't sell Raptors because of this. If F-22's were really needed, we could just deploy some in Kuwait or the U.A.E. and take the Flankers out. No need to sell them to Israel.

bdn12,

Do you imagine that the world stands still?

There is always an arms race going on, otherwise we would all be defending ourselves with Sopwith Camels and Fokker Eindeckers.

As soon as one nation develops a weapon, everyone else attempts to counter it or better it (just as the developer of the weapon does for when [not if] that technology is gained by their foes - which it will one way or another eventually).

No matter how good a weapon is, development and research will continue and the F-22 (one day) will be about as useful as a Sopwith Camel on today's battlefield.

Ultimately, if your friends and allies are threatened by a weapon system that can only be effectively countered by, in this instance F-22, then you either have the option of protecting them 24/7, or facilitating a supply of them. There is a third option - that's isolationism - let the world beat the crap out of itself - just leave me alone.

So, the F-22, just like every other weapon system ever invented, will have to be made available for export to certain allies, at certain times, when it is needed to do the job. The alternative is to gradually, but with absolute certainty, run out of friends and allies.

Also, if you refuse to provide the best you can offer to your allies (in terms of their needs rather than their desires), then does that imply that you don't trust anyone - that you don't actually feel you have any friends and allies?

In this instance, do you believe that if the F-22 is exported to Israel, that they will attack the US with them, or that you reckon Israel is likely to sell a few to Russia, or that they are simply too sloppy with their security? Same applies to Japan.

Times change, development is always ongoing - NEVER say NEVER!

The Winged Wombat

Israel is not an ally IMHO, the "alliance" with Israel is entirely a one way affair.

So I would never support them getting the F-22. Japan or Australia? Sure.

But Israel has an impressive track record of selling US technology to third parties, and shouldn't get anything more advanced than a can opener.

Originally posted by xmotex
But Israel has an impressive track record of selling US technology to third parties, and shouldn't get anything more advanced than a can opener.

Electric?


Or manual?

Our electric can opener technology is a vital national security asset, and thus I wouldn't support it's export to any but the most trusted allies.

Manual... maybe.

Originally posted by xmotex
Israel is not an ally IMHO, the "alliance" with Israel is entirely a one way affair.

So I would never support them getting the F-22. Japan or Australia? Sure.

But Israel has an impressive track record of selling US technology to third parties, and shouldn't get anything more advanced than a can opener.

firstly thanks , this cracked me up
hence it deserves a STAR, a Gold Star

and it is correct Israel has the track record of giving away US tec to third paries.

and on Iran getting this new Bird

all i have to say great one more hurdle for the US and Israel to pass before they can spill more blood

I would have to agree. Can Isreal be trusted with our top of the line fighter? China among others would pay whatever to get access to its secrets. And Isreal has a track record of doing so. You can water it down a bit, but only to a point. Too much and its just a fancy F-15 that is stealthy. The stealth features cannot be taken away.

The other issue is do they need the F-22 anyway? If they are going to be conducting offensive operations well then maybe they do. But if we are talking in the context of defence, AESA equipped F-15 etc should be enough of a stop gap in the event of an attack untill the F-35 is given to them.

I think that this is a red herring at anyrate. The sale would not be that much of a direct threat to Isreal. Now the gulf area is a differnet story. If purchased in large numbers, they would have a sizeable Air Force (greater than anyother) unless the US foreward deploys a wing in say Saudi etc. Last time I looked the Su-???? (whatever varient is on the agenda) can carry maritime strike weapons. The meer though of this could and would send the oil market into chaos.

I have a bit of a problem with this report. I'm not saying it is incorrect or anything but i think it may be just based on "hear say" between iranian-russian dealings.

What really gets me is that Russia didn't sell S-300 systems to Iran, yet they are willing to sell 250 SU-30 aircraft and accessories. It just doesn't make any sense to me.

Why would they deny S-300 systems and allow SU-30 aircraft?

Also i like Iran and everything but to be real these aircraft are going to get hit with Tomahawk missiles while they are still on the runway so they are basiclly a waste of money against America.

Iran would be better off trying to purchase $10 billions dollars worth of S-300 and BUK-M1 systems and missiles rather then wasting money on aircraft that are going to get destoroyed in less then 24 hours after any military operation.

And for long range reach the Iranians should invest money on ballistic and cruise missiles and manufacture them in overdrive making thousands rather then building obsolete tanks, APC's, aircraft etc...
You know becuase otherwise this will end up like the first 'Gulf war' were Saddams armies were destoryed in a humiliating short period of time.

Originally posted by The Winged Wombat
Ultimately, if your friends and allies are threatened by a weapon system that can only be effectively countered by, in this instance F-22...

Thing is the Flankers can be counted by a vast amount of systems, most of which Israel has there is no need for the F-22. Exporting the F-22, to anyone, would cause the US more trouble than it would prevent.

Originally posted by The Winged Wombat
So, the F-22, just like every other weapon system ever invented, will have to be made available for export to certain allies...

I disagree, given the technology, role and production run of the F-22 it is a strategic weapon, not a tactical one. As such it should be treated like an Ohio, B-2, B-1 etc... not like your export oriented F-16.

Originally posted by The Winged Wombat
...that you don't actually feel you have any friends and allies?

There are no "allies" only interests, that goes both ways. Israel has proven untrustworthy and at times directly hostile toward the US. I'm also not a big fan of their political and military views. Giving them more than is absolutely necessary in order to facilitate said views is very irresponsible and dangerous. You always want to have leverage over such an unstable state.

Also, I have to agree with some of iqonx's points here, against regional powers this might prove a useful purchase and it will increase Iran’s force projections/strike/aerial capabilities. However against their main claimed foe Israel and the US (one is very unlikely to act without the others backing) these are, I think, white elephants. Destroying their facilities and systems on the ground in a pre-emptive strike is very likely, and the rest will take care of themselves as the hostiles progress. It's not a war winner but it does help.

What a stupid discussion! Just bomb Iran till they have no more money to buy Su-30MK.

emile,

While they have oil, they have plenty of money to buy whatever they like. You forget that Iran is a VERY rich country!

The Winged Wombat

IF (and thats a big IF) these are SU-30 MKM , then they won`t be demolished - far from it , they will be the ones doing the kicking around


are the US prepared for a 1-2 or 1-1 loss ratio in the air? the NO11M BARS is very very good PESA radar - and thats the system in the MKM , coupled with Archer.

Originally posted by Harlequin
IF (and thats a big IF) these are SU-30 MKM , then they won`t be demolished - far from it , they will be the ones doing the kicking around

Please spare us the dramatic details, you are kidding yourself with such views. Especially like the one below which makes no sense, this sale was never seriously directed toward the US, Iran and Russia are smarter than that.

Originally posted by Harlequin
are the US prepared for a 1-2 or 1-1 loss ratio in the air?

well after the drubbing the IAF gave the USAF at cope india - your the one who is disalutioned sadly; since the F-22`s are no where near the gulf - and the SU-30MKI (and MKM they are near enough the same aircraft anyway) `wtfpwn` them.

and before you jump up and down and scream ` AESA AESA AESA` there arn`t actually that many AESA equipped F-15`s in the fleet in comparision to F-15 numbers.

The Flanker with Archer IS better than the Eagle - the USAF say so themselves.